Phillies vs. Mets Predictions, Picks & Odds: NL Division Game 4, 10/9
Game 4 of the National League Divisional Series kicks off with a National League East battle between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets on Wednesday night. The Mets jumped all over Aaron Nola in Game 3 while Sean Manaea pitched an absolute gem as New York took a 2-to-1 series lead.
Game 4 sees the Phillies send out Ranger Suarez while the Mets counter with Jose Quintana. Before giving our Mets vs. Phillies predictions, let's take a look at the top storylines and pitching matchups.
Philadelphia Phillies: Ranger Suarez to Save the Series
Down 2-1 in the series, the Phillies turn to Ranger Suarez on Wednesday to try and tie up the series.
In three starts against the Mets this season Suarez allowed four runs over 15.2 innings while striking out 13.
Suarez was looking like a Cy Young contender through the first month of the season but slowed down a bit and finished going 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA.
If the Phillies go down 3-1, this series could be all but over.
New York Mets: Offense Keep the Pressure
The Mets put runs on the board right away against Aaron Nola and the race was on as they scored seven runs. The Mets offense hasn't scored less than six runs in any game in this series and that kind of pressure makes it difficult for opposing pitching staffs and offenses to keep the pace.
Another hot start by the Mets in Game 4 start the quick sand for the Phillies as the Mets look to take control of the series.
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
We’re about to break down our Phillies vs. Mets predictions, but first, here are the current Mets vs. Phillies odds, spreads, totals and betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook:
Run Line
- Mets -1.5 (+170)
- Phillies +1.5 (+160)
Money Line
- Mets: -122
- Phillies: +102
Total
- 8.0 (Over -108/Under -112)
Phillies vs. Mets Starting Pitcher & Lineup
Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies
In three starts against the Mets this season Suarez allowed four runs over 15.2 innings while striking out 13 but on a whole this season the Mets have really hit left-handed pitching well.
Suarez was looking like a Cy Young contender through the first month of the season but slowed down a bit and finished going 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA.
Quintana tossed six shutout innings in his playoff debut against the Brewers and now he is tasked with getting the Mets to a commanding 3-1 series lead.
In three starts against the Phillies this season he looked strong, allowing just five runs over 16 innings.
Quintana also excelled at home this season, owning a 3.64 ERA.
Phillies vs. Mets Predictions For NL Divisional Round Game 4
How do we bet against the Mets right now? The offense is scoring over six runs per game right now in this series and while we saw their offense shut down by Zack Wheeler, this matchup is not against Zack Wheeler.
For our Phillies vs Mets predictions for Game 4 we need to really just focus on who is playing the better baseball right now and that is looking like the Mets, who hold home field advantage in the series right now.
Phillies vs. Mets: Mets ML (-122 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Mets offense really handles left-handed pitching well and now Ranger Suarez takes the mound with the pressure of the series on his back. The Mets offense is rolling right now and it just seems hard to find a way that Suarez finds success in this matchup here tonight.
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Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.