Padres vs. Dodgers Predictions, Picks & Odds: NL Division Game 5, 10/11
Game 5 of the National League Divisional Series between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers is tonight!
The Dodgers avoided elimination in Game 4 by jumping all over Padres starter Dylan Cease for three runs on four hits over 1.2 innings on their way to an 8-0 win to take the series back to LA for a chance to go to the National League Championship to face off against the New York Mets.
This matchup will see the Padres send out veteran righty Yu Darvish and he will be opposed by Dodgers rookie righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Before giving our Padres vs. Dodgers predictions, let's take a look at the top storylines and pitching matchups.
Padres vs. Dodgers Predictions For NL Divisional Round Game 5
This game has a the potentially to be one of the most watched baseball games of the season given the players involved as we not only have Shohei Ohtani in a playoff elimination game, but Yu Darvish is taking the mound for the Padres while Yoshinobu Yamamoto is pitching for the Dodgers.
The winner of this series will take on the New York Mets who were able to dispose of the Phillies in four games as their offense just continued to come up clutch time and time again.
The Dodgers will need their offense to do the same against a pitcher that has largely shut them down this season which includes in this very series.
In Game 2, Darvish tossed seven innings of one run baseball, needing just 82 pitches. This was more of the same from Darvish who had a 1.72 ERA in three regular season starts against the Dodgers this season.
For Yamamoto, the Padres have had his number this season. In the playoffs they tagged him for five runs over three innings and in his two regular season starts he allowed eight runs over six innings which included his debut start where he was tagged for five runs in an inning of work.
Both offenses have a ton of fire power, but the Dodgers did not have Freddie Freeman the other night as he continues to deal with an ankle injury. Freeman is expected to return to the Dodgers lineup for Game 5 but how much of an impact will he have?
Before we can make our Padres vs. Dodgers predictions, let's take a look at the top storylines and matchups.
San Diego Padres: Can Yu Darvish Continue His Success?
The key to winning the series tonight for the Padres is going to come down to the man on the mound. The Dodgers boast one of the more dangerous lineups in all of baseball with MVP caliber players at the top of their lineup in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. However, Darvish has been dominant this season against this team and that was again true during Game 2.
If Darvish can continue to show why he has been one of the better pitchers in baseball for over a decade, then the Padres will punch their ticket to the NLCS.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Can Ohtani Come Up Clutch?
Ohtani had a huge Game 1 for the Dodgers, going 2-for-5 with two runs a homer and three RBI. Since then he has been rather quiet and for the series he is hitting just .250 with a .771 OPS.
For the Dodgers to get to the NLCS they need an MVP-esk performance tonight from the man that is going to win the NL MVP this season following his historic 50/50 season.
For him to come through for the Dodgers he needs to first figure out the man on the mound as Ohtani is just 1-for-8 with three strikeouts in his career against Yu Darvish.
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
We’re about to break down our Padres vs. Dodgers predictions, but first, here are the current Padres vs. Dodgers odds, spreads, totals and betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook:
Run Line
- Padres +1.5 (-175)
- Dodgers -1.5 (+145)
Money Line
- Padres: +120
- Dodgers: -142
Total
- 8.0 (Over -108/Under -112)
Padres vs. Dodgers Starting Pitcher & Lineup
When the lights are brightest your stars tend to shine through and Darvish has not shied away from the moment. His lone start in this series saw him toss seven innings of one run baseball. In 2024 he made four starts in the playoffs for the Padres and had a 2.88 ERA. Yes, his career playoff record is just 5-6 with a 3.88 ERA but his recent playoff record has been stronger.
He has also pitched well against this Dodgers team this season, including the playoffs he has a 1.62 ERA over 22.2 innings.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
The highly prized offseason signing from Japan had his rookie season shortened to just 18 starts due to injury but I don't think anyone is upset with how he looked when on the mound, going 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA while striking out 105 over 90.0 innings.
He now has to earn his contract in the playoffs and his Game 1 start was not what the Dodgers had hoped to see as he allowed five runs over three innings.
The Padres have had his number this season, knocking him for five runs over an inning in his MLB debut and now they have a chance to end his rookie season the way it began.
Can Yamamoto rise up and get the Dodgers to the NLCS?
Padres vs. Dodgers: Padres ML (+120 on DraftKings)
I'm betting on the Padres here tonight in this Game 5 matchup against the Dodgers. Yu Darvish's success this season against the Dodgers lineup, along with the Padres elite bullpen will be too much for the Dodgers lineup to overcome here today.
I think the Padres lineup is just too much for Yamamoto to handle and even with the expectations that the Dodgers are only going to go with Yamamoto for a few innings before turning it over to the bullpen, this Padres lineup is just too tough top to bottom.
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Player News
Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports that the Twins plan to promote top prospect Luke Keaschall on Friday.
With mounting injuries in their infield, the Twins are in desperate need of reinforcements, and that’s where Keaschall comes in. The 22-year-old second baseman was off to a solid start at Triple-A St. Paul, slashing .261/.379/.348 with one homer, five RBI, four stolen bases and an 11/9 K/BB ratio in 58 plate appearances through his first 14 games. He should see regular playing time while with the Twins, making him an intriguing middle infield option in deeper mixed leagues.
Jo Adell is not in the Angels’ starting lineup for Thursday evening’s battle against the Rangers in Arlington.
There have been no mentions of any physical issues that Adell is dealing with, so we’re assuming it’s just a regular day of rest for the 26-year-old slugger. Kyren Paris will move to center field to cover for him while Luis Rengifo slides over to second base and J.D. Davis will get an opportunity at the hot corner. For those tracking at home, that will be the fifth game in the outfield this season for Paris as he works towards eligibility there for fantasy purposes.
Christopher Morel is absent from the Rays’ starting lineup for Thursday’s tilt against the Yankees.
Morel had started each of the team’s previous 10 games, so it looks like they’re just trying to give him a breather. The 25-year-old slugger is slashing a healthy .288/.362/.404 with one homer, six RBI and a pair of stolen bases through his first 17 games on the season. Richie Palacios will start in his place in left field on Thursday night and will bat sixth against Will Warren and the Yankees.
Kyle Manzardo is not in the Guardians’ starting lineup for Thursday night’s showdown against the Orioles.
It appears to be just a routine day of rest for the 24-year-old slugger with right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano toeing the slab for the Orioles. Manzardo has slowed considerably after his strong start to the season as he’s slashing just .185/.313/.463 to go along with four homers and 11 RBI. Jose Ramirez will function as the Guardians’ designated hitter in his place on Thursday with Gabriel Arias sliding over to third base and Daniel Schneemann drawing a start at second base.
Tyler Soderstrom went 1-for-5 and blasted his league-leading ninth home run on Thursday as the Athletics clobbered the White Sox 8-0 in Chicago.
Soderstrom did his damage in the seventh inning of this one, launching a 3-2 slider from Brandon Eisert for a 374-foot (103.9 mph EV) solo shot that made it a 5-0 ballgame. It has taken the 23-year-old slugger just 19 games to match his home run output from the 2024 season where he swatted nine long balls in 213 plate appearances over 61 ballgames. He’s obviously not going to continue at this remarkable pace, but Soderstrom needs to be rostered and started in all fantasy leagues.
JJ Bleday blasted a two-run homer on Thursday, helping to power the Athletics to victory over the White Sox in Chicago.
The 27-year-old outfielder victimized White Sox’ right-hander Davis Martin with his 372-foot (104.2 mph EV) two-run shot in the sixth inning that pushed the A’s advantage to 4-0. That would be his only hit in four at-bats on the afternoon. For the season, Bleday is slashing just .227/.325/.364 with a pair of homers, 10 RBI, one stolen base and a 14/10 K/BB ratio through his first 77 plate appearances.