Mets vs Phillies Predictions, Picks & Odds: NL Division Game 1, 10/5
Game 1 of the National League Divisional Series kicks off with a National League East battle between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.
The Mets took down the Brewers in their NL Wild Card series 2-1 thanks to Pete Alonso's late game heroics in Game 3.
During the regular season the Phillies won the season series 7-to-6, suggesting this series may end up going the full five games.
Before giving our Mets vs Phillies predictions, lets take a look at the top storylines and pitching matchups.
Mets vs Phillies Predictions For NL Divisional Round Game 1
In a surprise, the Mets are using Kodai Senga here in Game 1. Senga essentially missed the entire season, beginning the year on the IL only to return and immediately injure himself in his lone start which ended his regular season.
With the leg injury healed we see Senga taking the mound in what is not going to be an easy feat for a pitcher that hasn't pitched at all this season.
For the Phillies, the team with the second best record in the NL, they will be pitching Zack Wheeler who is a Cy Young contender this year.
Offensively, the Mets have been led by Francisco Lindor but we saw Pete Alonso come up big in Game 3 against the Brewers and the likes of Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo and Jesse Winker have also made plays.
Before making our Mets vs Phillies predictions lets take a look at the top storylines.
New York Mets: Can the Miracle Mets Stay Hot?
It took a win against the Braves in a double-header on the final day of the season to get into the playoffs and then it took an eighth inning, Game 3 home run off one of the best relievers in baseball for the Mets to advance to the Divisional Series.
Is their offense good enough to steal Game 1? Will Kodai Senga look like the pitcher we all saw strike out 202 hitters over 166 inning's as a rookie last year?
Philadelphia Phillies: Will Zack Wheeler Lock Down Game 1?
Wheeler is a front runner for the National League Cy Young Award, though we know that Chris Sale is the one taking home the hardware.
In his lone start against the Mets this season he allowed two runs over seven innings while striking out eight.
He is a heavy favorite today on the over for his total outs and strikeouts projections.
The Mets offense is going to have their hands full here today and Wheeler is looking like a guy posed for a big postseason.
Mets vs Phillies Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
We’re about to break down our Mets vs Phillies predictions, but first, here are the current Mets vs Phillies odds, spreads, totals and betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook:
Run Line
- Mets +1.5 (-142)
- Phillies -1.5 (+120)
Money Line
- Mets: +154
- Phillies: -185
Total
- 7.0 (Over -115/Under -105)
Mets vs Phillies Starting Pitcher & Lineup
Senga missed most of the season with an arm issue before returning and shutting down the Braves, tossing 5.1 innings while striking out nine. That start ended early however Senga injured his calf in that game which ended his season.
Senga is an elite strikeout pitcher as we saw last year when he had over 200 strikeouts in 166.1 innings.
I don't imagine we see Senga pitch overly deep into this game given the lack of innings he has thrown this year and that could be an advantage for the Phillies.
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
Not much more needs to be said here. Wheeler went 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA while striking out 224 over 200.0 innings.
Vegas odds have him going at least 6 innings today at -180 and his strikeout projection is set at 7.5.
With the Phillies favorites here today, a good game from Wheeler seems likely.
Mets vs Phillies: Zack Wheeler Win (+140 on DraftKings)
For my Mets vs Phillies picks today we rolling with Zack Wheeler getting the win. The Phillies are -185 on the Moneyline here today to win the game and Wheeler's odds on outs, earned runs and strikeouts all lead me to think he will be in position to pitch deep into this game and have a lead.
So, for my Mets vs Phillies predictions, we are going with the Zack Wheeler getting the win over on DraftKings Sportsbook set at +140 odds.
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