Seemingly since the month of November, the Philadelphia Phillies have been linked to Trea Turner in the free agent shortstop market. Bryce Harper had publicly stated that he wanted Turner to come join him in Philly once it was known, publicly, that Turner wanted to come back to the East Coast. Well, the Phillies have now pulled off that coup by signing the star shortstop, and by some accounts the best player available on the 2023 MLB free agent market.

What is Trea Turner’s Fantasy Baseball value in 2023?

It’s hard to find a way to make one of the best players in fantasy baseball better, but Turner has found a way. That’s right, we’re not holding back here. That’s precisely what has happened with Turner signing to an 11-year, $300-million deal pact with Philadelphia. As the illustration from Baseball Savant below shows, Citizen Bank Park could be an absolute gift to Trea Turner, as if playing in one of the best parks for the last 1.5 years wasn’t good enough.

Not only do we see several more balls that were previously outs, or at least not home runs, becoming homers, we also see plenty of hits in the alleys. We also need to take into account that the NL West had two of the worst hitter parks in the league — San Francisco and Arizona — while four of the NL East parks rank in the top-20 of hitter parks with three in the top-13, based on home runs. So better parks all around including a home park, check. The Phillies lineup with similar fire power to the Dodgers, they were seven homers apart last year and similar slash lines, should provide just as many chances for run-production as L.A. Turner’s speed will remain, Philly actually stole more bases in 2022 than the Dodgers, as he’s stolen at least 27 bags in every full season he’s played in the majors and he’ll be a leadoff or number two hitter for the Phillies. One last part that helps his value, the Phillies’ hitting coach Kevin Long is the coach Turner gives credit to fixing his swing in Washington and the one he consults with in the offseason to keep it going. Since Long worked with Turner, he’s not had an average below .298 in four years. That’s three checks in Turner’s favor and should keep him as the arguable number one overall pick in 2023.

 

Trea Turner Signing Impact on the Philadelphia Phillies

The biggest weakness for the Phillies for the last two years has been at shortstop. It’s that simple. They’ve been able to plug leadoff spots and run production and the rest of the offense but not shortstop. None of the aspiring shortstop prospects they’ve had have filled the hole either. So now they turn to the best hitter on the free agent market who’s been arguably the best shortstop in baseball since 2017. Already having a top-five offense at times last year and one that got hot enough to carry them to the World Series, they just got a heap ton better and deeper in the starting nine. Turner doesn’t just help himself with this signing, he helps every one behind him in the lineup like Bryce Harper, when he’s back, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and even guys like Alec Bohm, Rhys Hoskins, and Bryson Stott. Every hitter in that lineup has more fantasy value than they did last year and will for the next few years. The other thing this signing does is keep the Phillies in the heat of the divisional race until Harper returns midseason from his Tommy John surgery.

Trea Turner Signing Impact on the Los Angeles Dodgers

The ever-versatile Dodgers will certainly take a hit offensively by not having Turner in the lineup on a daily basis but they still have a solid team without him on it. Gavin Lux is the likeliest starter at shortstop given that’s his natural position with Chris Taylor and perhaps Mookie Betts playing second base. There’s no doubt that the Dodgers have the money to make a big splash in free agency and there are still players out there to help them both in the outfield and up the middle if they so choose. However, let’s not forget that they have one of the deepest and best farm systems in the league as well with Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, Jorbit Vivas, Eddys Leondard, and Andy Pages on the verge of coming up to fill holes and allow more versatility all over the field.

How does the Trea Turner Signing Impact Other Free Agent Hitters

He was easily the top hitter and shortstop on the open market so the length and amount of the deal isn’t all that surprising. It’ll be hard for players like Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa to make the argument that they should be in Turner’s range for salary, however, the AAV is another thing entirely. If those players are looking for better AAVs than Turner’s $27.2 million, that shouldn’t be that hard to pull off. Heck, Correa was at $35 million last year in Minnesota already. The teams that missed out on Turner are likely looking for shorter term solutions which is where Correa and Bogaerts and others can capitalize.

 

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