Updated: 3/31 3:00 pm ET
The 2022 MLB season was one for the record books in a number of ways. You know what else is a one for the record books? The 2023 MLB free agent class. There are a TON of star players on the open market this year from Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander to José Abreu, Xander Bogaerts, and Trea Turner to name a few. For some, this is the first time in their careers they will hit the open market, and this class has the power to change baseball for several years to come.
With the 2023 MLB offseason here, and as we go through the GM and then the Winter Meetings, we’ll see these stars signed. Each of these deals will have an effect on that player and team(s) for the 2023 season and beyond. It will also have an effect on that player's fantasy baseball value for 2023, and perhaps longer for those in keeper and dynasty leagues. As the free agents sign, make sure to check out the Fantasy Alarm 2023 MLB Free Agent Tracker for all of the analysis of how each deal changes fantasy values for the players being signed.
Free Agent Spotlights
- MLB Breaking News: Free Agent First Basemen Jose Abreu Signs With The Houston Astros
- MLB Breaking News: Jacob deGrom Signs With The Texas Rangers in 2023 MLB Free Agency
- MLB Breaking News: Justin Verlander Signs With The New York Mets in 2023 MLB Free Agency
- MLB Breaking News: Trea Turner Signs With The Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 MLB Free Agency
- MLB Breaking News: Aaron Judge Signs with New York Yankees in 2023 MLB Free Agency
- MLB Breaking News: Willson Contreras Signs with St. Louis Cardinals in 2023 MLB Free Agency
- MLB Breaking News: Masataka Yoshida Signs with Boston Red Sox in 2023 MLB Free Agency
- MLB Breaking News: Xander Bogaerts Signs with San Diego Padres in 2023 MLB Free Agency
Related Links
- 2023 Fantasy Baseball Top 5 MLB Free Agent Outfielders
- 2023 Fantasy Baseball Top 5 MLB Free Agent Starting Pitchers
- 2023 Fantasy Baseball Top 5 MLB Free Agent Catchers
- 2023 Fantasy Baseball: Top 5 MLB Free Agent First Baseman
- 2023 Fantasy Baseball Top 5 MLB Free Agent Second Baseman
- 2023 Fantasy Baseball Top 5 MLB Free Agent Third Basemen
- 2023 Fantasy Baseball Top 5 MLB Free Agent Shortstops
- 2023 Fantasy Baseball Top 5 MLB Free Agent Relief Pitchers
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | Old Team (Click to sort ascending) | New Team (Click to sort ascending) | Breakdown (Click to sort ascending) |
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SP | Jacob deGrom | NYM | TEX | deGrom had a heap ton of money left on the table with the Mets that he walked away from to reach free agency. Now, he’ll get paid $37 million a year to anchor the rotation in Arlington and try and lead a team to an AL West title. In all honesty, it’s hard to say what this means for deGrom in terms of performance or numbers on the mound as he’s already the best pitcher in the world and ranks third all-time in career ERA among pitchers with at least 200 starts, only behind Sandy Koufax and Clayton Kershaw. When deGrom has been on the mound he’s been elite, but that’s the thing when he’s been on the mound. We have to keep in mind that he’s been danged up a lot over the last few years and whether we want to chalk that up to the Mets’ training staff or him, it’ll be something to watch for sure as he moves his career to Texas. In terms of how Texas and the AL West will differ from the NL East, the bulk of the AL West parks are more hitter-friendly, with four of the five parks being in the top-14 of the league in Home Run park factors last year. That includes Anaheim and Arlington being in the top-five. Expect to see a slight uptick in his ERA and WHIP as he adjusts to the new surroundings and his first year of a new deal. One can only hope that the Rangers’ offense gives him more run support than the infamously low level of help he got from the Mets’ lineup. |
SP | Justin Verlander | HOU | NYM | There were serious questions as to what exactly Verlander would be in 2022 as a 39-year-old pitcher coming off of Tommy John surgery and having pitched just six innings in the last two years combined. He answered emphatically by winning the AL Cy Young Award — a third — with a stellar season. Even with the injury midseason, he posted 175 innings over 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 3.09 SIERA, and a very good 27.8-percent K-rate. The stuff was all there, not only control- and break-wise but with velocity too. All of his four-pitch mix average velocity above or around his career averages for each weapon including a fastball averaging 95 mph for the first time since 2018. That’s all well and good but what is his value going forward now that he’s moved to the NL East? This is where things get interesting. The NL East, ballpark-wise is a more pitcher-friendly division than the AL West in terms of park factors. Keep in mind that, as was mentioned in the Jacob deGrom to the Texas Rangers write-up, four of the five AL West parks were in the top-14 in park factors — in terms of offense — last year. That’s not the case in the NL East with just two in the top-14 based on home runs. Offense-wise The Phillies and Braves are really the only threats, that he’ll be facing, and that gives us hope he can have a similarly dominant year in Queens in 2023. There are concerns about whether the Mets can keep their pitchers healthy given the long history of injuries they’ve racked up and, you know, Verlander going into his age-40 season. Even with an expected regression in ERA, the K-rate, BB-rate, WHIP, and results should be about the same if not improved from 2022. That puts him as a top-3 fantasy pitcher for all formats in 2023. |
SP | Carlos Rodón | SF | NYY | The Yankees did what they needed to do. The team needed another legitimate ace in the rotation, and Rodon, when healthy, is just that. Prior to the past couple of seasons, the knock on Rodon was always health. He was a decent source of strikeouts with a respectable ERA, but prior to 2021, he only had one season with over 140 innings pitched (2016). He’s stayed pretty healthy the past two seasons, en route to going 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA (2.42 FIP) and 33.9 percent strikeout rate. He’s primarily a two-pitch guy, but his lively fastball and wipeout slider give batters fits. Home runs haven’t been an issue for him the past couple of seasons, so we might see a slight bump in his home run rate, particularly when he pitches in his home park. Regardless, Rodon is an ace coming off his two best seasons as a pro, and he’ll immediately slot in behind Gerritt Cole as the second starter in the New York rotation in 2023. He’ll get plenty of run support from his new team, and a high strikeout lefty like himself could wreak havoc on the AL East. UPDATE: Rodon is going to start the year on the injured list, likely missing a handful of starts. |
SP | Chris Bassitt | NYM | TOR | After being rather under appreciated for his production the past few years in Oakland, Bassitt was solid on a bigger stage in the Mets’ rotation. He went 15-9 over a career-high 181.2 innings of work, posting a 3.42 ERA (3.66 FIP), 22.4 percent strikeout rate, and 6.6 percent walk rate. He upped the usage on his curveball and slider compared to years past, and his sinker continues to induce a hearty number of ground balls. As he goes to the American League East, he’s going to need to keep the ball on the ground at a similar clip as he did in 2022, which was actually a career best for him. The AL East is loaded with some good offenses, but more notably, a couple hitter-friendly parks. From a fantasy perspective, the move to Toronto is rather neutral, with maybe a slight lean to a net-negative. He’ll have a great offense backing him again, but it’s a park downgrade, and the American League East is no slouch when it comes to offensive firepower. Health willing, he will eat a lot of innings for the Blue Jays and fantasy baseball managers as a middle of the rotation arm, with an average at best strikeout rate, but I expect his ERA this year to be closer to 4.00 than last year’s 3.42 mark. |
SP | Taijuan Walker | NYM | PHI | Just like we saw Zack Wheeler do a few years ago, Walker is now doing — signing with the Phillies in free agency after playing for the Mets. The righty was inked to a four-year, $72-million deal early in the winter meetings. They needed help in the rotation to be sure as they were out-dueled in the starting department in the playoffs once teams got past Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler and now Walker gives them depth in the starting five. The question is, is he worth the $18-million AAV or not. He pitched 157.1 innings for the Mets in 2022 over 29 starts to the tune of a 3.49 ERA (3.65 FIP, 4.05 SIERA) and so-so K- and BB-rates. He’s familiar with the division already but he moves to the most hitter-friendly home park in the division with this signing. He also won’t be a fifth starter for the Phillies which means there’ll be more pressure on him to produce for a clearly built to try and repeat as NL champs, if not more. |
SP | Clayton Kershaw | LA | LA | Was he really going to go anywhere else? He’s been with the Dodgers for nearly a decade and a half, and has 197 career wins with a 2.48 ERA. He may not be the workhorse he once was, but when healthy, he’s one of the game’s best pitchers, and continues to torture hitters with his pitch mix. Of course, he has his curveball that’s destined for Cooperstown, but his slider has always been one of his most lethal pitches, seeing as it perennially has a whiff rate north of 35 percent. Kershaw’s postseason struggles are well documented, and he hasn’t thrown more than 150 regular season innings since 2019, but he’s one of the best on a per-inning basis. From a fantasy perspective, again, he isn’t what he used to be, so be careful pushing him up too high on draft day due to name recognition alone. |
SP | Noah Syndergaard | PHI | LA | Syndergaard is betting on himself again this year, as he’s taking a one-year prove it deal to pitch for the Dodgers. The 30-year-old posted a 10-10 record with a 3.94 ERA over 25 appearances (24 starts) last season, but from a fantasy perspective, he wasn’t all that useful. His 6.35 K/9 (16.8 K%) is painfully low, and he’s simply not the same pitcher he used to be. His fastball velocity is way down, and he used non-fastballs over half of the time in 2022. For a frame of reference, back in 2018 and 2019, he used his four-seamer and sinker roughly 54 and 59 percent of the time respectively. Syndergaard is going to pitch to more contact, and let his sinker generate plenty of ground balls. Syndergaard isn’t going to be the electrifying pitcher he once was, and he should use his sinker more and more to generate ground balls and weak contact. The 30-year-old righty can still be useful in fantasy formats, as he should eat up innings and post a respectable ERA (upper 3s to low 4s), but you’ll need other strikeout arms to account for Syndergaard’s dearth of strikeouts. |
SP | Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | TEX | Eovaldi’s overall record (6-3) may not show it, but Eovaldi was actually quite good for the Red Sox in 2022 when on the mound. He was limited to just 20 starts last year due to stints on the injured list for back and shoulder inflammation, but when on the mound, he posted a 3.87 ERA with an 8.48 K/9 and third straight season with a sub-2.00 BB/9. He used his splitter much more last season, and I’d expect that trend to continue to help keep the ball on the ground. He does allow a ton of hard contact, and home runs hurt him last year, so any chance he has to keep the ball on the ground will behoove Eovaldi. Getting out of the American League East should benefit Eovaldi in and of itself, but he’s also benefitting from moving to a more pitcher friendly environment at Globe Life Field. Texas has enough thump in the lineup to give him some run support, and hopefully his new home park and further increased usage of his splitter can push his HR/9 closer to 1.00 than 2.00. Eovaldi could be a nice value arm in fantasy baseball drafts in 2023, assuming he doesn’t get pushed too far up the board, and the necessary injury risk is baked in. |
SP | Tyler Anderson | LA | LAA | It was Anderson’s best year of his career in 2022 as the Dodgers work their magic on pitchers once more. Now, the team across town wants to see if they can help keep that going. He went 15-5 in 30 games, 28 starts, with a 2.57 ERA and 3.31 FIP. The only things that really explain the better numbers, aside from playing for the pitching gurus in LA, was a shift to more changeups and less cutters which helped increase the ground ball rate. The other thing that helped was keeping the ball in the park. His 6.4% HR/FB rate was only the second time it’s been under 10 in his career, the other season being 2020. If what he figured out in his season in Dodger blue sticks with him over his three-year deal with the Angels, they have a number 3-4 starter for their burgeoning rotation in a park that’s nearly identical in park factors to Dodger Stadium. |
SP | Jameson Taillon | NYY | CHI | One could argue that 2022 was a career year for Taillon, as he went 14-5 and posted a 3.91 ERA across 177.1 innings, the most he’s thrown in a season since logging 191 in 2018. Home runs are still a bit of an issue for Taillon, but at Yankee Stadium last season, his 0.99 HR/9 was far better than his 1.66 HR/9 mark on the road. The wind can be a nuisance for pitchers in Chicago at times, but when looking at the division and ball park, this should be considered an upgrade, even just a slight one, for Taillon. Sure, he’ll have to pitch at Great American Ball Park and face the Cardinals, but the Pirates are also in the division, and Taillon’s new divisional foes, albeit solid, don’t pack the offensive punch that the rest of the AL East could pose. With pitching being a hot commodity this offseason, many might think this is an overpay for a pitcher like Taillon, who’s game is predicated on consistency and reliability more so than an overpowering presence on the mound. However, when healthy, he’s as consistent as they come, and should be a rock solid second or third starter for the Cubs in 2023. Fantasy wise, he’s a bit underwhelming due to a below-average strikeout rate, but he’s logged 29 or more starters in two straight seasons, and should be able to provide 170+ innings for fantasy managers with an ERA in the low-4s. |
SP | Jose Quintana | STL | NYM | Does anyone realize how good Quintana was last year? He pitched to a 2.93 ERA (2.99 FIP) over 32 starts and 4.4 bWAR. Then just for kicks he allowed 0.4 HR/9, an NL-low. Yet he’ll be the fourth starter for the Mets in 2023. That’s a steal to be perfectly honest. He’s not been a dominating starter for a while but he’s been more than serviceable in real life and fantasy respects. Now, a few things to keep in mind, he spent all of last year in the NL Central splitting time between the Cardinals and Pirates; those offenses aren’t to the level of the ones in the NL East. Also, he was phenomenal in his wins (six starts 1.01 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 33K in 35.2 IP), terrible in losses (5.57 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, .321 BAA, .522 SLG in seven starts) but lived mostly in between with 19 no decisions that saw a 2.76 ERA. 1.15 WHIP and a .226 BAA. If he can avoid the seven blowups he’s a steal of a fourth starter and with the anticipated offensive support the Mets can offer, there should be more wins in his favor this year and yours a fantasy manager of his. |
SP | Sean Manaea | SD | SF | Manaea flopped a bit in San Diego this past year, going 8-9 over 158 innings with a 4.96 ERA (4.05 xERA, 4.53 FIP, 3.96 xFIP) and 1.30 WHIP. The combination of his second-highest fly ball rate of his career with career worsts in barrel rate (9.1%) and hard hit rate (42.6%) hurt him, particularly in the HR/9 department. His 1.65 HR/9 in San Diego in 2022 vastly exceeded his 1.16 HR/9 from 2016-2021 when he was in Oakland. There was no real change in his pitch mix, and his pitch velocities look fine. He was solid at home, a pitcher’s park, but on the road, he surrendered a 6.16 ERA, not to mention a 1.84 HR/9, .497 SLG, and .351 wOBA. He’ll be staying in the same division, and going to another pitcher’s park, but when looking at Manaea’s career as a whole, he’s always been a guy that has pitched best in his home park (3.68 career ERA at home vs. 4.45 career ERA on the road). This is a good move for the Giants, who could be getting a solid middle of the rotation arm at under $13M per year, and with an opt out after this year, it’s really a low-risk, high-reward signing for San Fran. If the Giants can sprinkle some of that magic pitching dust that they have to revive Manaea after a rough 2022 season, this could be a really, really good signing. This is, of course, all health willing, seeing as Manaea has dealt with shoulder issues quite frequently throughout his MLB career, and 2021 is the only time he’s thrown more than 165 innings or made 30+ starts in a season. |
SP | Mike Clevinger | SD | CWS | It wasn’t exactly a good run for him in San Diego following the 2020 trade. Perhaps the White Sox are hoping they got the pitcher they saw for four years in their division. If we set aside the recent trouble in San Diego when he was injured and not pitching well, there is some intrigue here. During his time in the AL Central, in three years of 120 or more innings, he never posted an ERA worse than 3.11 nor a FIP worse than 3.85 and was over 9.3 K/9 in all three years. Now could that have been the Cleveland pitching coach and system? Perhaps. Could it have been terrible offenses in the AL Central? Perhaps. Either way, if he can stay healthy, which is a big if at this point having topped 130 innings just once in his career, there’s late round flier value here. We’ve seen what Ethan Katz has done for Dylan Cease and perhaps he can work his magic for Clevinger now as well. |
SP | Zach Eflin | PHI | TB | The three-year, $40 million deal handed out to Eflin by Tampa is the largest free agent deal ever given out by Tampa. That says something. The intent is for him to join the rotation in Tampa as likely the number 3 or 4 starter. That could be interesting to see how it works out unless they feel they can work their pitching magic on him too. Why do I say that? Well, lets look back at last year’s splits shall we? First of all, he split time between the rotation and bullpen with 13 starts and 20 total appearances. Secondly, his home-road splits weren’t great with a 1.73 home ERA (3.31 FIP) and a 6.88 road mark (3.88 FIP) with better K-rate, BB-rate, WHIP, BAA, and wOBA at home, by significant margins. Thirdly, his ERA in the Phillies’ rotation was a 4.37 while it was a 1.17 mark out of the pen, though in a much smaller sample size. Granted the Phillies weren’t built for defense ranking 29th in OAA and 25th in DRS while Tampa was 15th and 14th in those respectively last year. Eflin has never been a guy to blow the doors off of stat lines in his career as he’s typically been in the low-4s in ERA and mid-3s in FIP with serviceable K-rates, reasonable BB rates, and declining WHIP numbers over the last four years. That’s all Tampa really needed to round out their rotation featuring Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and whomever they decide will be the fifth arm, perhaps Taj Bradley. He’ll get a boost from the better defense but overall moving to the AL East is a downgrade making him nothing better than an SP5 option in fantasy baseball in 2023. |
SP | Andrew Heaney | LA | TEX | Chris Young must be a salesman with first adding deGrom and now Heaney on a multi-year deal. Sure he’s not nearly as impactful as the other high-priced additions over the last few years, but he’s worth it for the Rangers nonetheless as he’ll lengthen the rotation, as long as he’s healthy. Can we expect the same output that he had last year in L.A. with a 3.10 ERA (3.39 xERA, 3.75 FIP, 2.46 SIERA) over his 72.2 innings and a half a year of starts? That’s likely not sustainable given his career path before 2022. Last year was his second-ever season with an ERA under 4.00 with the last one being his second season in the majors. There’s also a downgrade in terms of park factors, in that he’s in a tougher division for pitchers, and the offenses he’s facing will be tougher with Texas than they were with the Dodgers. He’s tough to bank on for anything more than an SP5 with some strikeout upside as long as he’s on the mound but not much more. |
SP | Kyle Gibson | PHI | BAL | The Orioles are in an interesting spot this offseason as they were a bona fide playoff contender last year but don’t want to stretch the budget too much while awaiting the rest of the influx of their young talent that’s still to come up. That’s where the one-year, $10-million signing of Gibson comes in. They needed another arm in the rotation and one that can eat innings in the back half; precisely what Gibson is. In some respects, last year was a very good year for Gibson as he posted the lowest SIERA of his career, the lowest BB% and BB/9 of his career, and best K-BB% of career. However, he still had an ERA over 5.00, a subpar K/9 and K%, and a 1.34 WHIP. Perhaps moving to a park that was markedly more pitcher-friendly in 2022 with the now-largest left field in baseball. If you need an SP6 for fantasy baseball, Gibson likely won’t kill you too much. |
SP | Michael Lorenzen | LAA | DET | Lorenzen didn’t exactly provide the type of stability for the Angels’ rotation that they were hoping for, but he did go 8-6 across 18 starts with a 4.24 ERA (3.91 xERA, 4.31 FIP) for the team. He missed some time with a shoulder injury. He missed some time in the summer months with a shoulder injury, and it’s possible that he pitched through it for a bit, seeing as in the five starts prior to going on the IL, he went 1-4 with an 8.61 ERA, while walking more batters, surrendering more home runs, and allowing a ton of hard contact. Upon his return from the IL, he was much better, as he allowed three or fewer earned runs in all five starts, and struck out six or more batters in all but one of them. His fastball velocity was a bit down, which is something to watch in 2023, but Detroit will hope he can solidify the middle-to-back-end of its rotation. The Tigers’ pitching staff must harness his command, because he simply cannot endure self-induced damage. He has a double-digit walk rate in three straight seasons, and he had just three starts last season with fewer than two walks in an outing. |
SP | Corey Kluber | TB | BOS | Kluber will remain in the American League East, as he inked a one-year deal with Boston. The deal does include a club option for 2024 as well. Kluber logged 164 innings for the Rays in 2022, posting a 10-10 record with a 4.34 ERA across 31 starts. His 3.57 FIP, 3.92 xFIP, and 4.00 xERA indicate he may have been a bit unlucky in terms of his ERA. His strikeouts dipped below one batter per inning for the first time since 2013, and he posted the highest fly ball rate of his career. The Rays ramped up the usage of his cutter, which generates a heathy amount of fly balls. Health willing, Kluber will eat up innings for a Boston rotation that needs as many healthy arms as possible, but it is worth noting that as the year went on, he really tailed off, to the tune of a 5.14 ERA and .303 BAA over his last 70 IP. |
SP | Jordan Lyles | BAL | KC | Lyles is a proven veteran that has at least 179 innings pitched in each of the past two seasons. Now, they haven’t exactly been the most lucrative for fantasy purposes, seeing as his ERA over the past two years is closer to five than four, and he hasn’t posted a strikeout rate north of 20 percent since 2019. I wouldn’t be surprised to continue dropping his four-seamer usage, as he has each of the past three seasons, in lieu of more sinkers and sliders. He’s not going to become a big strikeout guy all of a sudden, but he can provide a hearty number of innings for fantasy baseball managers, and pitching in the AL Central is far better than where he was last (AL East). Seeing the current makeup of the Kansas City rotation, they are going to let Lyles eat up innings, and a repeat of his 2022 season seems very repeatable. |
SP | Rich Hill | BOS | PIT | Hill will join the Pittsburgh rotation and likely serve as a mentor for some of the younger arms in that rotation. From a fantasy perspective, there isn’t much to like here with Hill. Why is that you may ask? Well, he’s logged more than 140 innings just twice in his entire career (2007, 2021), his strikeout rate is in the low-20s now, whereas he used to be closer to 30 percent. The veteran southpaw will live and die by his curveball, and his home park will be a slight upgrade compared to Fenway Park. However, there’s minimal fantasy appeal with Hill with his new club. |
SP | Zach Davies | ARI | ARI | Davies somehow managed to go just 2-5 across 27 starts for Arizona last year, and his 4.09 ERA seems lucky, considering his 4.83 FIP. He surrendered another 1.40+ HR/9 season, but he did manage to enjoy slight dips in his average exit velocity and barrel rate compared to his porous 2021 season. If Davies isn’t striking batters out, something he doesn’t do often, his fantasy value plummets. However, we did see him actually striking out batters in the first “half” of the season (13 starts), as he posted a 7.43 K/9 and seven starts with five or more strikeouts. However, over the last 14 starts, his strikeout rate dropped by five percent, and down to a 6.20 K/9, while posting just three starts with five or more strikeouts. To be fair, he did miss some time with right shoulder inflammation, and upon his return, he dropped the usage on his changeup, and his sinker was pounded down the stretch. Davies has never been a reliable source of strikeouts, so we shouldn’t look too much into his “hot start” to the 2023 season, but Arizona should be a better ball club in 2023, and he did post a 3.16 ERA and 7.11 K/9 in State Farm Stadium in 2022. |
SP | Wade Miley | CHI | MIL | The veteran southpaw will head back to Milwaukee, a place he should be quite fond of, considering back in 2018 he was 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA across 16 starts. Miley is a pitch-to-contact southpaw who won’t blow anyone away with overpowering velocity. He does a great job limiting hard contact and his changeup is a ground ball machine. He was limited to just nine appearances last year, as he served multiple stints on the IL for left-arm related issues (elbow, shoulder), and to be frank, Miley isn’t getting any younger. When healthy, he’s a reliable innings eater that can help solidify the back end of a rotation. From a fantasy perspective, he doesn’t miss bats, and while he does limit hard contact, his ERA might be closer to 4.00 than 3.00 this year, if not above it. I do have concerns with the new shift regulations that his pitch-to-contact mantra and lack of swing-and-miss stuff could cause some issues for Miley. Even with the lack of strikeouts, if Miley stays healthy, you could do far worse than 150+ innings with a 3.80-4.20 ERA with one of your late round selections. |
SP | Johnny Cueto | CWS | MIA | Ignore his 8-10 record last year, and his 5.80 K/9, and Cueto was quite serviceable for fantasy managers, posting a 3.35 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 158.1 IP. At this stage of his career, Cueto doesn’t miss bats, and his veteran presence should help a Miami rotation loaded with young, talented arms. Additionally, he can eat up innings to help preserve some of those young arms, regardless of whether Miami trades any of them pre- or intra-season. Last year, Cueto tanked the usage on his four-seamer, en route to using his sinker more, and as his velocity diminishes, that trend should continue. A pitch-to-contact guy like Cueto might get burned a bit by the new shift rules, but he does allow a good bit of fly balls, and in his new home park, he should fare better. Per Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, Guaranteed Rate Field ranks seventh in Park Factor over the last three years, whereas loanDepot park comes in at 18th. His dearth of strikeouts won’t endear him to fantasy baseball managers, but he can be a reliable source of innings, and in the later rounds of your drafts, 150+ IP with a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.30 WHIP can be valuable in its own right. |
SP | Zack Greinke | KC | KC | Greinke went just 4-9 for the Royals last season, and his 3.68 ERA was quite lucky, considering his 4.78 xERA, 4.03 FIP, and 4.54 xFIP. He doesn’t strike batters out, he’s done missing bats, and he’s allowing a lot of hard contact in the latter years of his career. His fly ball rate is trending up, and with that increased contact, I don’t expect a repeat of last year’s 0.92 HR/9, even with a home park to help him out. Greinke did post a 1.81 ERA over his final eight starts of the season, but the lack of strikeouts is killer for fantasy purposes. He should eat up some innings, but the new rules don’t exactly favor a pitcher like Greinke, which is why his ERA will be closer to 5.00 this year compared to his 3.68 mark in 2022. |
SP | Michael Wacha | BOS | SD | Across 23 starts for the Red Sox last year, Wacha went 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA (4.56 xERA, 4.14 FIP), and 1.12 WHIP. His 41 percent ground ball rate was his highest mark since 2019, but his numbers did drop off the as the year went on. He upped the usage on his sinker last season, which posted a 50 percent ground ball rate last season, and his changeup continues to be his best swing-and-miss pitch. He will move to a far better park for pitchers, and should provide some stability to the back end of the Padres rotation. |
RP | Edwin Díaz | NYM | NYM | For the second time in two years, Diaz posted 32 saves for the Mets except this time his ERA and K-rate were quite impressive. The ERA at 1.31 and an even lower FIP at 0.90 set him up to get a 5-year, $102-million deal from the Mets after running out of arbitration years. There are all sorts of ways to breakdown Diaz’s amazing 2022 campaign from his remarkably low BAA vs. LHH to his 50.2% K% to his 75% whiff rate on pitches out of the zone. All of them are impressive but all were powered by a major shift in his pitch mix. In his first six seasons he averaged 64.7% fastball and 35.1% slider. In 2022, he switched that to 58.1% slider and 41.9% fastball. Typically closers have a few prime years at which they’re at the heights of their powers and Diaz is clearly in that prime now and likely for the next couple of seasons as well. |
RP | Robert Suarez | SD | SD | Suarez gets a nice deal to stay with the Padres for at least the next three seasons. The deal is for five years, but there is a player option after the third year. What will be interesting with this deal is to see how it all plays out, given that he’s 31-years-old, and the Padres gave him $46M after making 45 appearances this season. Oh, those were his first 45 appearances in the MLB, may I add. Suarez racked up 61 strikeouts in just 47.2 innings of work, and his fastball and sinker both averaged over 97 miles per hour this season. His changeup posted a 40 percent whiff rate last season, and recency bias is a thing, so it’s hard not to love his 32:8 K/BB ratio and 1.48 ERA over his final 23 appearances on the season. Suarez figures to open the year as the primary setup man to closer Josh Hader. |
RP | Taylor Rogers | MIL | SF | Rogers’ ERA for the 2022 season was the worst of his career, but his 4.11 xERA, 3.31 FIP, and 3.26 xFIP indicate that he could have been a bit unlucky in that department. He converted 31-of-41 save opportunities last season, and after heading to Milwaukee, it was a mixed bag of results. His strikeout rate jumped to an excellent 36 percent, but his walk rate nearly doubled from his time in San Diego, and home runs were an issue for Rogers. Rogers’ slider is his best pitch, and while it may results in more fly balls, the whiff rate is excellent, and does a great job of minimizing hard contact. From a fantasy perspective, if the strikeouts remain high, Rogers could be an interesting late round flier, especially as the likely primary setup man to Camilo Doval. |
RP | Kenley Jansen | ATL | BOS | Jansen is a great closer, and there’s no denying that. He put up 41 saves in Atlanta last year, his most since 2017, and his 32.7 percent strikeout rate was his highest mark since 2017 as well. Jansen doesn’t figure to be a guy anymore with a strikeout rate around 40 percent, but he should hang out in the low-30s, which is a respectable mark, even if it doesn’t put him in the elite echelon of closers on a per-inning basis. He got a nice chunk of change to head to Boston, but the move is rather interesting to say the least from the team’s side. If Boston is planning on making some more splashes in free agency, maybe it’ll make more sense, but one could argue that Boston’s biggest strength at this point is its bullpen, and there were far more glaring weaknesses on the team that need addressed. It’s hard to argue with getting one of the best closers in the game for the past decade, but paying $16M a year for a closer seems a bit luxurious for a team with more glaring holes. |
RP | Adam Ottavino | NYM | NYM | Ottavino’s stuff is absolutely filthy, and he’s always been a high strikeout arm out of the pen. However, command was a pretty big issue. Prior to 2022, his career BB/9 of 4.15 was rather high, but in 2022, it was just 2.19! And guess what? The ERA remained low, the strikeouts remained, and he generated a ground ball more than half of the time, which is the first time he’s done that since 2016 when he was with Colorado. His slider is one of the game’s best, and he upped the usage on his sinker, which posted a launch angle of -5 degrees last season. Ottavino’s fantasy value in 2023 will be most prominent in leagues that value saves and holds, and his per inning effectiveness makes him an intriguing reliever, especially if we get another year with a sub-2.10 ERA and nearly 80 strikeouts. |
RP | Craig Kimbrel | LA | PHI | Kimbrel may not be the same dominant force he was in the prime of his career, but he’s still a solid reliever that will be of great value to the Philadelphia pen. In 2022, Kimbrel went 6-7 with 22 saves (5 BS) with a 3.75 ERA and career low 27.7 percent strikeout rate. His fastball velocity is trending down, and he upped the usage on his fastball last year, despite his curveball being a far more effective pitch on all fronts. For Kimbrel to increase his strikeouts, his pitch mix needs to be closer to 2021 (41% curveball) than 2022 (31% curveball). He allows some hard contact, actually quite a bit, and he might see an uptick in homers he allows due to his new home confines. However, even if he allows a few more home runs, he can still be valuable for fantasy managers, especially when you consider that in 2018 he posted a 1.01 HR/9 (3rd-worst of his career), yet he still had a 2.74 ERA and 13.9 K/9. Philadelphia is going to spread out the save opportunities, so he won’t be the clear-cut closer, but he’ll certainly be in the mix for opportunities when they arise, especially if Kimbrel is like the 2021 version of himself. Be careful overpaying for the name, because he is not guaranteed the lion's share of the ninth inning work. |
RP | Andrew Chafin | DET | ARI | Add another potential closer to the mix in Arizona. Chafin’s Statcast page from 2022 is filled with red, which is good, and his slider has wreaked havoc on opposing hitters over the past couple of seasons. Chafin may only have 11 saves in his career, but he has 123 holds over his nine-year career, and with a chance for saves in Arizona, he’s a sneaky play in leagues that value saves and holds. He keeps the ball in the park, and can miss enough bats to be useful in deeper formats that value saves and holds. |
RP | Rafael Montero | HOU | HOU | To say Montero was excellent for Houston last season might be an understatement. In the regular season, he posted a 2.37 ERA (2.70 xERA, 2.64 FIP) with 14 saves and 23 holds across 71 appearances. He allowed a measly 2.9 percent barrel rate, and his 52.9 percent ground ball rate was the second straight season that mark was north of 50 percent. Recency bias plays a factor, too, given that he posted a 1.93 ERA with four holds across 9.1 postseason innings. His sinker is a ground ball machine, and continued usage of that will keep that ground ball rate high. His non-fastball offerings don’t induce the number of whiffs that parlay into a high strikeout rate, but he limits hard contact, and keeps the ball on the ground. All of that to say, Montero is likely better in reality than fantasy, but if something were to happen to Ryan Pressly, Montero would be first in line for save opportunities. |
RP | Aroldis Chapman | NYY | KC | To say 2022 was Chapman’s worst year as a professional would be an understatement. His ERA ballooned to 4.46, his strikeout rate dropped below 30 percent for the first time ever and it marked the fourth time in five years that he posted a double-digit walk rate. Of course, there’s his off-field incidents as well, but the Royals handed him a heavily incentivized deal for the 2023 campaign. Scott Barlow was excellent last season, so Chapman won’t have a clear path to saves, but he’ll likely be used here and there if he can return to being the dynamic late-inning arm he was for the majority of his career. |
RP | David Robertson | PHI | NYM | Love this move in reality. The Mets add a righty with proven closing experience coming off a bounce back 2022 season. Robertson was excellent with the Cubs and Phillies last year, posting a 2.40 ERA, 11.45 K/9, and converting on 20-of-23 save opportunities. Robertson is no spring chicken at 37 years young (turns 38 in April), but his game isn’t predicated on velocity, which has helped him pitch into his latter-30s. While his cutter remains his primary pitch, he upped the usage on his curveball and slider in 2022 compared to recent memory, resulting in whiff rates of 44.4 percent and 38.2 percent respectively. He’ll serve as the primary setup man to Edwin Diaz, and if he keeps his strikeout rate from last year, will be an excellent fantasy pick in “solds” leagues. |
RP | Brad Boxberger | MIL | CHI | Signing Brad Boxberger likely doesn’t make anyone jump for joy, but he’s a quality southpaw who has nine wins, five saves, 52 holds, and a 3.15 ERA over the last two seasons. In fact, his 52 holds are second most in the majors over the last two seasons, and he’s one of only seven relievers with at least 40 holds and a sub-3.20 ERA over the last two seasons. He wasn’t as tough on left-handed hitters as he has been for most of his career, but if we look at his career as a whole, he’s allowed opposing lefties to slash just .198/.297/.322 against him, not to mention a 27.3 percent strikeout rate and measly .250 BABIP. He’s not a ground ball pitcher, so home runs can come back to bite him a bit, but his arsenal runs three pitches deep and he will provide a steady presence in the Chicago pen. He can close if called upon, and given his closing experience, don’t be surprised if Chicago leans on him in the ninth inning a bit more frequently early on in the season. |
RP | Seth Lugo | NYM | SD | Lugo wanted to go somewhere where he had a shot at the rotation, and San Diego seems to be that spot. He hasn’t made a start in the past two seasons, but he’s been effective as a reliever for the Mets, posting a 3.56 ERA, 7-5 record, four saves, 29 holds, and 1.22 WHIP. Lugo wants to start, as I mentioned, but statistically speaking, he’s been better as a reliever. His 2.91 ERA as a reliever and .263 wOBA are far better than his 4.35 ERA and .326 wOBA as a starter, but it’s not exactly comparing apples to oranges, seeing as his pitch mix has drastically changed since he was a starter last. While he may open the year as the team’s fifth starter, his stamina will come into question, and he’s only thrown more than 100 innings twice in his career, with the most recent time being back in 2018! He’ll be pitching in a pitcher friendly park with a good offense backing him, as well as a solid defensive crew, and I expect some of the changes that made him a better reliever will carry over into his starts. However, San Diego likely goes with a six-man rotation to try to preserve some innings for their guys, or Lugo may bounce around a bit for the team. |
RP | Chad Green | NYY | TOR | Green is recovering from Tommy John surgery, which limited him to just 15 innings pitched last season. When healthy, he sports an above-average fastball-curveball combo, with the latter posting a whiff rate of at least 31 percent in three straight seasons. His arsenal doesn’t produce many ground balls, which could be an issue with the new field dimensions in Toronto, but he was solid in terms of limiting hard contact in 2022. From 2019-2021, he posted a 1.46 HR/9 mark, but his career HR/9 was higher at Yankee Stadium than on the road. The Blue Jays inked Green to a two-year deal, affording Green and the team the luxury to ease him back in the mix, and once Green returns to full health, he figures to be one of the primary middle relievers for the Blue Jays. He shouldn’t be on the fantasy radar heading into the season, but he could be a name to watch come the summer months if he is able to return and showcase his 2021 form. |
RP | Michael Fulmer | MIN | CHI | The thought of Fulmer starting seems to be a thing of the past, as he has a career 2.98 ERA and 24.5 percent strikeout rate as a reliever in his career. He does a great job missing the barrel of the bat, and he’s upped the usage on his slider immensely as the years have passed. He primarily uses his slider, four-seamer, and sinker, and his slider is clearly his go-to weapon. The Chicago bullpen is far from solidified, and even if he doesn’t work his way into a ninth-inning role, he should be reliable for those leagues that value holds (or solds), while providing a strikeout per inning and respectable ratios. |
RP | Matt Moore | TEX | LAA | As a reliever, Moore flourished in 2022. He dropped the usage a bit on his fastball, and threw his curveball a career high 38.2 percent of the time. The switch in his pitch mix really helped him out, and he said goodbye to his cutter. He was a two-pitch guy against lefties, but his changeup was lethal against right-handed hitters. Moore did a great job minimizing hard contact, and the Angels needed another decent southpaw in its pen. He may get a save chance here and there throughout the course of the year, but he figures to be a setup guy for the Angels in 2023, and could be a nice ratio booster in AL-only formats if he can cut back on the walks a bit in 2023. |
C | Willson Contreras | CHI | STL | The former Cub and top catcher on the market inks a long-term deal with the division rival Cardinals. Contreras would have had numerous career highs last year if he wasn’t limited to injury, but even in his 113 games, he swatted 22 home runs, stole a couple of bags, and posted the lowest strikeout rate (21.1%) of his big league career. He may present a bit of a downgrade from a defensive standpoint as Yadier Molina, but he’s still a serviceable defensive option with a very live arm behind the dish. He joins a lineup that will boost his counting stats, as he should get plenty of chances with someone on base, and guys like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt will bring him around. At time of writing, the Cardinals don’t have a tried and true designated hitter, so don’t be surprised if he gets some DH at-bats mixed in over the course of the season. This is a great landing spot for Contreras from a fantasy perspective, and the Cardinals add the top free agent at the position to an already potential lineup. |
C | Gary Sánchez | MIN | SF | It looks like the Giants want a little extra insurance behind the dish after Joey Bart. Sanchez didn't look exceptional in the WBC and he's coming off a season where he hit just .205 with 16 home runs in 128 games. The power has always been there for Sanchez, but the strikeouts are high, and the batting average is out of control. He hit .299 and .278 in 2016 and 2017 respectively, but since those seasons, he has just one year (2019) with a batting average north of .206, including two years below the Mendoza line. He's not a great defender all things considered, there's too much swing-and-miss in his game, and he's not exactly going to a hitter friendly park. Of course, this is all assuming that he works his way onto the big league roster! |
C | Christian Vázquez | HOU | MIN | At least compared to Gary Sanchez, this is a defensive upgrade for Minnesota, so that should help the pitching staff. Offensively speaking, it’s a rather different offensive profile to say the least. Yes, he struggled in the postseason with the Astros, but prior to the trade, he was excellent in Boston. In fact, during his start of the year in Boston, his 162 game pace looked like this: .282/.327/.432, 15 HR, 64 R, 81 RBI, 2 SB. He’ll provide good batting average for the position, and there’s enough pop in that bat of his that his home run total should reside in the mid-to-low teens. He’s not a catcher you are necessarily overly excited to draft in fantasy, but he does a good job rounding out your fantasy team, as he provides solid numbers across multiple categories. |
C | Omar Narváez | MIL | NYM | This signing was rather interesting. The Mets already had James McCann and Tomas Nido on the roster at time of signing, and don’t forget about Francisco Alvarez, the team’s top prospect, waiting in the wings. Does this mean Alvarez will primarily DH? Looking at Narvaez’s deal, $7.5M a year doesn’t exactly scream backup money to me, or at the very least, someone who isn’t going to play semi-regularly. Narvaez can’t hit southpaws, so the Mets will opt for someone else when facing a lefty, and for his career, he’s hit righties at a .268 clip with a .751 OPS and 106 wRC+. Offensively speaking, Narvaez took a sizable step back in 2022, as his 2.4 percent barrel rate was a far cry from year’s past. However, he should be better in 2023, and even when operating on the larger side of a backstop platoon, even with his new home park being a slight downgrade, Narvaez should be much closer to his 2021 form than what he showed in 2022. Expect a corresponding move to be made here for the Mets, as they won’t go into the year with four catchers on the big league roster, leaving McCann and Nido (likely) to await their fate. |
C | Mike Zunino | TB | CLE | It was a disappointing year in 2022 for Zunino after a career-best 33-home campaign in 2021. Granted, it was due to injuries in 2022 more than performance as he only played 36 games. Extrapolating stats isn’t a great thing to do given the ebbs and flows of the season for players and teams, however, his early season start put him on pace for about 25 homers and 75 RBI. That’s what Cleveland is hoping they’re getting. They need some pop in their lineup as they finished 29th in home runs last year, only ahead of Detroit and still behind Washington. They’re also hoping to get a veteran catcher to help their top prospect, Bo Naylor, in getting adjusted to the big leagues in his age-23 season. If Zunino is healthy, the power is great at the catcher spot but the batting average is something that will need to be accounted for. His topped a .210 AVG just once in a full season in his career, which dates back to 2013. Not great Bob as they say. |
C | Tucker Barnhart | DET | CHI | The Cubs could have gone into the season with Yan Gomes as their primary backstop, but adding Barnhart is a wise move. Barnhart is an excellent defender, and that will likely be his biggest addition to the team. Offensively speaking, Barnhart isn’t anything exceptional, and despite spending 2014-2021 in Cincinnati, he only had two seasons (2018, 2019) with 10+ home runs, and he hasn’t hit above .250 since 2017 (.270). Barnhart figures to operate on the larger side of a platoon, seeing as he’s only a career .217 hitter against southpaws, whereas Gomes is a lifetime .279 hitter against southpaws. |
C | Austin Hedges | CLE | PIT | Well, Pittsburgh is knowing exactly what they are paying for ahead of time, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Hedges has some pop in his bat, as we saw in 2017 and 2018, but he is just a .189 career hitter with a .247 OBP. In 2022 with the Guardians, he cut back on his strikeout rate to a career best 23.1 percent, and his walk rate returned north of seven degrees, but all in all, it resulted in just a .163 average and .241 OBP. His average exit velocity has waned over the last two years, so while he may never be a 15+ home run guy, he seems good for around 10 round trippers, as he’s essentially locked in as the team’s primary backstop. He’s very good defensively, so perhaps his best fantasy impact will come from helping the Pittsburgh staff. |
1B | Anthony Rizzo | NYY | NYY | Rizzo’s last year and a half with the Yankees has been a bit of a resurgence for his career, as it almost seemed as if the end was near after he struggled with the Cubs at the end of his tenure with them. His first full season with the Yankees saw him only hit .224, but he posted a double-digit barrel rate for the first time in his career (since it was tracked), and he logged a second consecutive season with a hard hit rate north of 40 percent. Rizzo isn’t the guy he was with the Cubs in the early-to-mid-2010’s, but he’ll post a respectable walk rate, en route to a decent OBP, and Yankee Stadium will help offset any major drops in power. To Rizzo’s credit, he was still decent away from Yankee Stadium, so his power numbers aren’t completely driven by his home at-bats. The veteran first baseman will be a stalwart in the Yankee lineup, and Rizzo in Yankee Stadium is as close to a match made in heaven as Rizzo will find going into his age 33 season. |
1B | Carlos Santana | SEA | PIT | Santana has hit .207 over the last three seasons, but a 16.4 percent walk rate has his OBP at .323 during that span. There’s still some pop in that bat of his, but his main claim to fantasy “fame” in 2023 is going to be those who play in leagues that value OBP compared to batting average. Sure, Santana is only a handful of years removed from a 30+ home run season, but I’m just not buying into a bounce back into the veteran slugger who turns 37 years old in April. He’ll get plenty of at-bats in Pittsburgh, and there are some interesting fantasy pieces in that lineup, but overall, Santana is going to be the same fantasy asset he has been in recent seasons. What he stands to gain in terms of a slight batting average bump due to the shift ban, he’ll lose in counting stats by hitting in the Pittsburgh lineup. |
1B | José Abreu | CWS | HOU | Well this is a shocker! Who’d have thought he’d have left Chicago after being there his entire career? Perhaps the draw of a shot at a World Series win was too much to turned down, in addition to the money obviously. He’s been an elite hitter for his entire MLB career dating back to 2014 including winning the 2019 AL MVP award. Now, he’ll take his skill and ability to play a solid defense at first base to Houston and will likely slot in to the number four spot in the order. This will give Houston likely the most potent top-six in a lineup in the league. While the average has stayed mainly between .284 and .317 his whole career, the power has fluctuated. Since 2015, Abreu has hit 30 or more homers every other year which conveniently puts him on track to hit 30 or more homers in 2023 if the pattern holds. His swing fits the shorter porch in Houston very nicely as well, similar to Alex Bregman’s, and so we could see a power boost from him by changing from Chicago to Houston and the AL West in general. For the White Sox this opens the door for Andrew Vaughn to take the 1B role on an everyday basis going forward as well which should up his fantasy value as the power and average should come more into play with everyday at-bats and not just a half a year’s worth. |
1B | Josh Bell | SD | CLE | It was really a tale of two seasons for Bell in 2022. Through the first 103 games of his 2022 season, he was hitting .301 with 14 home runs and a 2.5 WAR. Then, he’s sent to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade, and his numbers tanked, as he hit just .192 with three home runs in 53 games with a -0.5 WAR. He doesn’t exactly have the typical batted ball profile of a first baseman, or corner infielder for that fact, but he can post solid power numbers when he’s in the middle of a hot streak. Ideally, he cuts back on the insane number of ground balls that he hits, so that he doesn’t have to rely on a high HR/FB rate to sustain his power output. This is a really good deal for Cleveland, because the switch-hitting Bell is coming off an overall solid season, highlighted by an 8.3 degree launch angle that was his highest since 2019. Besides being a switch-hitter, Cleveland is getting a durable first baseman who has played in 140+ games in every year since 2017, sans the shortened 2020 campaign, and a guy that has proven to be a reliable middle-of-the-order bat at the game’s highest level. |
1B | Trey Mancini | HOU | CHI | Following a trade to Houston, Mancini’s numbers cratered, and it seems as if he was pressing at the plate. He now heads to Chicago, which has revamped its lineup drastically, and when the wind gets to blowing out at Wrigley, Mancini’s batted ball metrics should lead to excellent fantasy production. He should have an everyday role with this team, and if he can move closer to the heart of the order, he could be in line for his best statistical year since 2019. However, a more realistic output is a .250 average and 20+ home runs, with a chance to get to 70+ runs scored and 70+ RBI. |
1B | Brandon Belt | SF | TOR | It will be interesting to see what Toronto’s plans are for Belt, because Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be starting just about everyday at first base or designated hitter, and when he mans first base, Toronto has a few options at DH. However, $9.3 million isn’t exactly backup money, and Belt is just one year removed from hitting a career best 29 home runs in just 97 games. He’s good for a trip to the IL a couple of times a year, but when on the field, he’s still a solid hitter who lofts the ball, and has a double-digit barrel rate in each of the last three seasons. I don’t love last year’s career worst 71.3 percent contact rate, and even if his strikeout rate is closer to 30 percent than 20 percent, he gets a home park upgrade, and should benefit from the other parks in the AL East as a left-handed bat. Toronto could sit him against left-handers, and given the depth of this Toronto lineup, Belt could be a headache for fantasy managers in leagues that don’t allow daily lineup changes. His power is enticing, and he’s in a much better lineup, but maintaining a regular role could be more of a challenge. |
1B | Matt Carpenter | NYY | SD | This is quite the story for Carpenter. After numerous productive years in St. Louis, it seemed like he fell off a cliff after the 2018 season, and labored through the 2020 and 2021 seasons, hitting .176 with a 29.9 percent strikeout rate. He re-worked his swing, and really helped anchor a New York Yankee lineup in 2022. Carpenter is going to primarily DH, and maybe play the field here and there, against right-handed pitching, operating in a platoon with his new club. He cut back on the strikeouts compared to his two horrendous years in 2020 and 2021, and while he hit .305 last year, it’s hard to ignore that .231 xBA, or the fact that his xSLG was .485 and his actual slug was .727. At the very least, Carpenter is an interesting late round flier in fantasy baseball drafts, because he could see a good chunk of at-bats in a star-studded San Diego lineup. He figures to operate on the larger side of a platoon, but if your league doesn’t allow for daily moves, Carpenter becomes much more in-season management. |
1B | Eric Hosmer | BOS | CHI | The Eric Hosmer name doesn’t carry the same weight it used to by any means. He wasn’t horrible in 2022, but just boring from a fantasy perspective, and didn’t really positively impact any of the main fantasy baseball categories. Is there reason for optimism with the move to the Chicago Cubs? Well, for starters, he’s getting a sizable park upgrade compared to Petco Park. I’m not really counting Fenway, since he hardly played there (14 games). Hosmer still puts the bat on the ball, doesn’t strike out, and will help a strikeout-prone Cubs team when he’s in the lineup. However, while it’s a better home park, Hosmer hits a ton of ground balls, and he only has two seasons in the last eight years (2015, 2020) of his career with a launch angle above five degrees. He likely gets a good chunk of the starts to begin the year at first base, but he’s a rather boring fantasy asset. His batting average is above average, but his power is lackluster for the position, and he doesn’t run. He’s a fine late round flier, but if Hosmer struggles, the team could opt to use Patrick Wisdom at DH, and Matt Mervis as the primary 1B. |
1B | Wil Myers | SD | CIN | It’s hard not to like Myers heading to Great American Ball Park after spending most of his career in more pitcher friendly environments. Myers can make a lot of hard contact, and he has a barrel rate north of seven percent in each of the last seven seasons. He lofts the ball, and has plenty of power in that bat of his. He has 15+ home runs in three of his last four seasons, and with no major split disadvantages, he’ll be an everyday player in the best hitting park in all of Major League Baseball. As long as he doesn’t get the “Great American Ball Park bump”, he should be a nice cheap power option in fantasy baseball drafts. |
1B | Luke Voit | WSH | MIL | Voit’s deal is a minor league deal, but they are giving him a chance in spring training to join the big league club. Despite his waning batting average and increasing strikeout rate over the last two or so seasons, Voit has showcased impressive power at the big league level, hitting 20+ home runs in 2019, 2020, and 2022. In 2021, he had 11 home runs in 68 games, easily putting him on a 20+ home run pace. Milwaukee’s roster is pretty deep, so Voit has his work cut out for him, and even if he does break camp with the team, regular playing time will be far from guaranteed, as Rowdy Tellez will man first base on a regular basis, and the team’s DH spot figures to be a rotation headlined by Jesse Winker. |
1B | Yuli Gurriel | HOU | MIA | Albeit a minor league deal, Gurriel seems like a guy that will ultimately make the team and be a semi-regular presence in the Miami lineup. He spent all of his career in Houston prior to coming to Miami, primarily serving as a first baseman, though he did spend some time at third base early on in his career. The Marlins are going to give him reps at second and third base this spring, in the hopes that he can hit for a higher average like he did for most of his career, sans 2020 and 2022. Gurriel makes a ton of contact, and hardly strikes out, but last year’s 1.9 percent barrel rate is ugly, and he’s never been a Statcast darling by any means. Outside of NL-only leagues, Gurriel isn’t overly relevant to begin the season. |
2B | Jean Segura | PHI | MIA | When on the field, Segura was quite good for Philly in 2022, slashing .277/.336/.387 with 10 home runs and 13 stolen bases, his first time joining the 10/10 club since the 2019 season. Segura doesn’t make a boatload of hard contact, and he routinely hits the ball on the ground, so without being in Philly, I expect some home run regression for Segura in 2023. He does, however, make a lot of contact, and should be a steady presence in the top half of the Miami lineup. Segura should continue to post a .330+ OBP, which will help the other batters in that lineup. His new home park won’t play up his dwindling power, making this move better in reality than for fantasy purposes. Segura will need another 10+ SB season with a .275+ batting average to reward fantasy baseball managers. |
2B | Adam Frazier | SEA | BAL | Frazier may not be the flashiest name in this year’s MLB Free Agency class, but this is a very good deal by the Orioles. Baltimore has a team that looks ready to take the next step, banking on the development of some of its elite prospects. Prior to 2022, Frazier has been a guy that can hit for a solid average and even with last year’s abysmal .301 OBP, he still has a .336 OBP for his entire career. He’s incredibly versatile, as he appeared at five different positions for Seattle last season, and he’s still got some in the tank at just 31 years old. He’s really only had two bad years in his career from a batting average perspective, and one was the shortened 2020 campaign. Even in his two worst seasons from a batting average perspective, his xBA of .251 (2020) and .262 (2022) point to optimism. I’d expect a progression to the mean for Frazier in 2022, and while his overall stat line may be lackluster, he can be a steady presence at the bottom of the order, and turn the lineup over to the studs at the top of the order. Frazier won’t win with power by any means, but he makes a ton of contact, can get on base, provide defensive versatility, and be a veteran presence in this Baltimore lineup around all of the youngsters. |
2B | Tommy La Stella | SF | SEA | La Stella hasn’t been great for the Giants over last two years, and it’s been even worse for fantasy managers who were hoping to get some value from his after solid 2019 and 2020 campaigns. He makes more quantity of contact than quality, and last year’s two percent barrel rate was his lowest mark since 2018. The new shift rules just might help him, as his wOBA in 2020 and 2021 when he wasn’t shifted against were .404 and .324 respectively. He’ll occupy a super utility role for Seattle in 2023, but won’t provide much value for fantasy managers. |
2B | Aledmys Díaz | HOU | OAK | Fantasy baseball managers and the Oakland Athletics alike will covet Diaz’s versatility, as he should find ways to stay in the lineup on a daily basis for the team. Recency bias will take some of the shine off his season, because he found his groove in the summer months, hitting .293 with seven home runs and 10 doubles in 33 games between July and August. He hits righties better than lefties, but he can hold his own against southpaws, as he has a .245 average and 96 wRC+ against them for his career. When examining the top free agents at each position, I said that I wouldn’t be surprised if Diaz signed with a “lesser” team that would offer him the chance at a full time role to open the season. In a full time role, Diaz offers some pop, and could flirt with a .250+ batting average and 20+ homers over the course of a full season. His numbers from 2021 and 2022 over a full 162 game season come out to a line of .250/.302/.404 with 18 home runs, 58 runs scored, and 76 RBI. He could present a nice draft day value if his price stays cheap. |
2B | Josh Harrison | CWS | PHI | Harrison hasn’t been as useful for fantasy purposes in recent seasons as he was during his later years in Pittsburgh, but his profile hasn’t changed for the most part. He still hits for a reliable average, which largely fuels his OBP, but he’s lost pop, and the stolen bases were nonexistent for Harrison last season. In his age 35 season, he’ll be more useful for Philadelphia in reality than for us in fantasy. He’ll operate in a bench role, and his versatility will allow Philadelphia to have a backup infielder and outfielder with just one roster spot. |
3B | Brandon Drury | SD | LAA | This Angels lineup looks quite intriguing with the addition of Drury, assuming the version that the Angels get is more reminiscent of the Cincinnati Drury compared to the San Diego Drury. Drury was fueled a bit by the hitter’s haven that is Great American Ball Park, but there’s still plenty to be encouraged by. He posted a career best barrel rate last year, and maintained the elevated hard hit rate he posted in 2021. Albeit some regression hit him as the year went on, one thing Drury can do without fail is crush left-handed pitching. He posted a .299 average and a .955 OPS against southpaws last season. Angel Stadium plays much closer to Great American Ball Park for right-handed hitters compared to Petco Park, and with the talented lineup he’ll be a part of, there’s a lot to like for Drury heading into 2023. |
3B | Justin Turner | LA | BOS | I didn’t expect Turner to join any other team except the Dodgers if we’re being honest, however, that just wasn’t how the cookie crumbled! After nearly one decade with the Dodgers, Turner inked a two-year deal that includes an opt out after year one to join the Red Sox. With Rafael Devers at the hot corner, Turner figures to be the team’s primary DH, and be the backup first baseman to Triston Casas. The power output last year wasn’t ideal, but despite just the 13 home runs, he did manage to swat a career-best 36 doubles. His exit velocity dipped below 90 miles per hour for the first time since 2018, and his HR/FB rate dropped below 10 percent for just the second time in the past nine seasons. His whiffs were up, and he left the zone a bit more frequently, but Turner is still a solid hitter that gives Boston the impactful right-handed bat in the upper half it desperately needed. Outside of Trevor Story, Boston’s other right-handed bats are better suited in the bottom half of the lineup, so Turner fills a much needed void. He’s going to a good park (and decent division for that fact) for right-handed hitters, but fantasy managers will be hoping that the average stays solid, and the power returns in 2023. |
3B | Evan Longoria | SF | ARI | Longoria seemed destined to go to a contender, and he must see something with this Arizona squad. Sure, there’s a lot of young talent, and he figures to open the year as the regular designated hitter, but this Arizona team plays in a stacked division, and outside of an arm or two, there’s a lot of questions about this rotation. Regardless, the 37-year-old has enjoyed his past few years in San Francisco, posting a .252/.333/.466 slash line with 27 home runs and 88 RBI over 170 games. Longoria has been far better against southpaws over the past two years, hitting .318 against them in 2021, and .282 last season. Durability questions remain large with Longoria, and even when primarily operating on the small side of a platoon, he’s still made multiple trips to the injured list the past two years. He could be an interesting fantasy option, when healthy, in this lineup as a late round flier, but durability concerns and a potential switch to a platoon will likely relegate him to DFS notoriety only. |
3B | Jace Peterson | MIL | OAK | The Athletics are “ballin’ on a budget” as the kids say. This is a very affordable deal for a guy like Peterson, who has played nearly every position on the diamond throughout the course of his major league career. He’ll have plenty of chances to crack the Oakland lineup on a daily basis, and he isn’t getting any younger (turns 33 in May). With a full workload, he could be a guy that joins the 10/10 club, but a strikeout rate in the mid-to-upper 20s is going to humble his batting average. He’s only posted an xBA above .240 once in the past five seasons, and the deal he signed with Oakland seems like the plan for Peterson is let him play everyday, and then flip him at the deadline to a contender. He’ll give fantasy managers versatility in terms of where they want to slot him in the lineup, and while I think he has that 10/10 potential, but his home park will most certainly not play up his power whatsoever. Fantasy managers will likely draft him in the mid-to-late rounds, hoping for that cheap speed, and a little bit of pop. |
3B | Donovan Solano | CIN | MIN | Solano is what he is, in that he’s a guy that routinely hits for a decent average, provide slightly above-average defense and can play all around the infield. He’s hit .280 or better each of the last four years, and in 2022, he posted his highest hard hit rate (39.7%) since 2019. The right-handed hitting Solano has been as consistent as they come against lefties over the years, and he figures to work on the small-side of a platoon in the Minnesota infield in 2023. Outside of his batting average, he doesn’t do much to help fantasy managers, and when he does play, he’ll be stuck in the bottom half of the lineup. |
SS | Trea Turner | LA | PHI | Turner comes back to the East Coast and is reunited with Bryce Harper in Philadelphia. One year after the Phillies got a .234/.290/.352 slash line from the shortstop position with 16 home runs and 16 stolen bases, they go out and pay up for Turner, one of the best in the business (and in fantasy). Turner has hit at least .298 with 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases in each of the last two seasons, and he’s now in Philadelphia for the next decade. He’ll hit in the top third of another potent lineup, in another right-handed hitter friendly park. Turner is one of the best at his position, both in reality and in fantasy, and this could be the missing piece for a Philadelphia team that made the World Series this past season. Despite not having Harper for a good chunk of the 2022 season, Turner will find himself near the top of the order with guys like Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto and Nicholas Castellanos around him. This is a great landing spot for one of fantasy baseball’s superstars. |
SS | Xander Bogaerts | BOS | SD | Wait, I thought only the Nationals lost their homegrown superstars in free agency? What happened? Well, San Diego doesn’t play by those rules and signed Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280-million deal with a full no-trade clause and no opt-outs. He’s there for the long haul. For the last five years, he’s posted wOBAs of .363 or better each year and wRC+ marks between 129 and 141. He’s a spectacular hitter with a career .292 AVG and .356 OBP while averaging 17 homers a year over those nine full seasons. He’s an elite top half of the order hitter who can hurt pitchers in multiple ways who will likely slot into the 2-hole for the Padres starting nine. This signing locks in the Padres plan to move Fernando Tatis Jr. to left field while playing Ha-Seong Kim at second base in all likelihood. There shouldn’t be too much drop off in Bogaerts stats moving to San Diego from Boston as hitting homers over a 34’ wall is way tougher than any of the dimensions at Petco Park. Not to mention we get 11 years of him playing in Dodger Stadium and Coors Field nine times a year. The lineup behind him is at least the same if not better than what he had in peak years with Boston so the counting stats will be fine as well. We can’t read too much into the fact that he’s a .271 career hitter outside of Fenway because we’ve seen that just doesn’t hold weight for elite hitters like Bogaerts following free agent signings. |
SS | Dansby Swanson | ATL | CHI | The former first overall pick has come on in recent years. Despite whiffing a bit more compared to his early years, he’s posted a double-digit barrel rate in each of the past three years, and thanks to a 40+ percent fly ball rate in each of the past two years, we’ve seen Swanson develop in the power department. He has 52 home runs over the past two seasons, and specifically in 2022, he hit 14 of his 25 home runs at home, where he also hit .304. Swanson is only a .246 career hitter away from Atlanta’s home park, but he has slashed .307/.403/.452 in Wrigley Field for his career. Swanson is a great defensive shortstop, and while pessimists may put more stock into his offensive numbers pre-2021, there’s a lot to like about Swanson’s offensive game. Sure, he whiffs a good bit, has a strikeout rate in the mid-20s, and his overall contact rate has been below 73 percent in each of the past three seasons, but he makes a lot of hard contact when the bat finds the ball. Wrigley may not be the most friendly confines for a right-handed hitter, but don’t estimate the “windy” in the Windy City, and the amount of hard contact Swanson makes. Swanson’s bat plays in most parks, but we can’t deny that he’s going to a weaker supporting cast in Chicago than what he was accustomed to in Atlanta the past couple of seasons. |
SS | Carlos Correa | MIN | MIN | Correa has proven to be a very consistent hitter in his eight years in the majors to this point. His career average of .279 has been matched exactly in three seasons so far and if we exclude the shortened 2020 season, he’s hit between 20 and 26 homers six-of-seven seasons. The one year in Minnesota also proves that even when he’s based in a not-so-hitter-friendly park, he can still put up good offensive numbers. Despite the circus this offseason that was trying to sign Correa, it seems like he may finally have a home back in Minnesota, assuming his physical checks out, which has been the issue with the other teams that have attempted to sign Correa. When healthy, Correa is a proven offensive stud that will put up numbers in four of the five primary offensive categories, and a healthy Byron Buxton would go a long way for some of Correa's counting stats. |
SS | Elvis Andrus | CWS | CWS | Andrus started the 2022 season in Oakland, where aside from a .237 batting average, he was quite productive for fantasy purposes, hitting eight home runs and stealing seven bases in 106 games. He came over to Chicago to step in for the injured Tim Anderson, and he hit nine home runs and stole 11 bases in just 43 games, and his .271 average was more in line with his career norm. Andrus will slide over and play second base for the White Sox, meaning that within a month, Andrus will have SS and 2B eligibility and while he had quite the power resurgence last year, I wouldn’t bank on another 17-homer season from Andrus in his age-34 season. He’ll flirt with double-digit long balls while stealing 15+ bags, and his batting average should hover around .250. He’ll likely see an ADP rise with his signing, but he could make for a nice value if it doesn’t get too inflated. |
SS | Jose Iglesias | COL | MIA | Much like another recent signing for the Marlins (Yuli Gurriel), Iglesias is a contact hitter that provides ample quantity, but much less quality. Coming from Colorado, it’s quite a park downgrade for Iglesias, but overall, he doesn’t do enough for fantasy to warrant any consideration in drafts. He’ll be a solid defensive replacement if needed, and is quality depth, but fantasy managers can get more production elsewhere, even in the deepest of NL-only setups. |
LF | Andrew Benintendi | NYY | CWS | All in all, this is a nice deal for Benintendi, seeing as he traded power output for batting average last year, as his .304 batting average was the best of his career, but his five home runs were his lowest in a full season’s work. He even spent 33 games playing for the Yankees, and he hit just two home runs there while hitting just .254 with an elevated strikeout rate compared to his time in Kansas City prior to the trade. If Benintendi is going to scrape the power from his game, which I don’t think will fully happen, he’s going to be a quality asset for fantasy baseball managers in need of average/OBP, and a handful of stolen bases. Listen, it’s a good home park for left-handed hitters, and he should hit in the top of the order around the likes of Luis Robert Jr and Eloy Jimenez, which is good for those counting stats. Benintendi’s excellent plate discipline and contact metrics will likely fare better in reality than in fantasy, but there’s still a place for a guy that should hit .270 with 8-12 home runs and around 10 stolen bases. The 2017 and 2018 versions of Benintendi I think are rather distant in the rearview mirror, so be careful overpaying for him in fantasy baseball drafts. |
LF | Jurickson Profar | SD | COL | Profar has always been pretty solid for fantasy managers in OBP leagues, and now we all get to deal with the Coors Field bump that he is going to get. He has 15+ home runs in three of the past five seasons, and his pace in 2020 would have made it a fourth season if it weren’t for he COVID impacted year. He puts the bat on the ball, has a good feel for the strike zone, and should hit enough fly balls to be appealing in the friendly confines of Coors Field. Profar doesn’t make overwhelmingly hard contact, but last year was a career best for him in the hard hit rate department, and he’s expected to be the leadoff man for the team this year. He’s a near-lock for double-digit home runs, and maybe even post 8-10 swiped bags. |
LF | Michael Brantley | HOU | HOU | Brantley was limited to just 64 games last year, and in August, underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right (non-throwing) shoulder. Prior to the injury, Brantley was the same guy he’s been for the majority of his career, in terms of hitting for a good average, posting a quality OBP, and hovering around a contact rate of 90 percent. Simply put, Brantley puts the bat on the ball, and while Father Time eventually wins out, Brantley’s game isn’t predicated on anything that he can’t sustain for a few more seasons. I expect him to lose a bit power as the years go on, and especially in the early part of 2023 as he gets up to speed following shoulder surgery. It’s encouraging that his six percent barrel rate last year would have been his best in the past half-decade, and he did have 20 extra-base hits in just 64 games last season, even if only one-fourth of them were home runs. Brantley will stay in Houston, and hit in the top-third of a lineup that just might be better than last year’s World Series team. Scary thought, no? If you draft someone with a lot of power but not a lot of batting average/OBP early on in your fantasy baseball drafts, prioritize Brantley later on, seeing as he has hit .300 or better with a .360+ OBP in four of the last five seasons. |
LF | AJ Pollock | CWS | SEA | Pollock may not be the fantasy commodity he once was, but he can still put up relevant numbers, while being a DFS player’s delight when facing a southpaw. Pollock may have only hit .245 last year in 138 games for the White Sox, but he posted a .286 average, .935 OPS, and 161 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. As a team in 2022, the Mariners had the eighth-lowest batting average against southpaws, so at the very least, we know Pollock is going to be in the lineup against lefties. Given his durability issues, more AB’s at the DH spot likely preserves him for the long haul, but he may be forced into playing the outfield if Jarred Kelenic can’t take that step that Seattles desperately wants him to enjoy. With regular at-bats, Pollock could be a guy that hits .260+ with 12ish home runs and a couple of stolen bases. |
LF | Joey Gallo | LA | MIN | We had some fun during the season about how the Yankees trading Gallo caused a bit of a slump and the Dodgers to get hot, but it wasn’t part of Gallo’s play either way. To his credit, he’s been the same guy for his entire career, in that when he makes contact, the power output is solid, but he’s going to hover around the Mendoza line and his strikeout rate is in the mid-to-upper 30 percents. Yikes. Over the past three years, he’s hitting just .183 with a 36.3 percent strikeout rate, and outside of 2022, his exit velocities have looked solid. He still barrels up plenty a baseball, but it’s just not frequent enough to sustain any sort of fantasy value. He’s an extreme fly ball hitter, and the new shift rules could help play up his batting average a bit, seeing as he’s been shifted on in 90+ percent of his at-bats in each of the past four seasons. He’s getting a slight park upgrade by going to Target Field as a left-handed hitter, but Gallo is nothing more than a dart throw at cheap power in fantasy baseball, assuming he can stick in the lineup full-time against righties. |
LF | Corey Dickerson | STL | WSH | The Nationals desperately needed a little thump in the middle of the lineup, and on a good day, Dickerson can be just that. The power numbers have been disappointing the past two seasons, as his .404 SLG over the last two years is far below his career .481 mark. He has some significant splits, so Washington will likely need to protect him against southpaws, but he should hit in the middle third of the lineup, which could turn out to be a nice value selection on draft day if he can get his barrel rate closer to the 6-8 percent range. Despite a lack of pop in recent years, there’s some optimism that going to Washington will be better for him, seeing as he’s coming from the 29th ranked park for LHH to the ninth ranked park, per Baseball Savant. The Washington lineup is underwhelming to say the least, but if Dickerson’s price stays cheap, he could be a nice value selection in the later rounds, that should provide a quality ROI if his power returns. |
LF | Andrew McCutchen | MIL | PIT | It’s time to party like it’s from 2009 through 2017! After a few years away from Pittsburgh, McCutchen will head back to Pittsburgh, where he likely has an everyday role with the club in left field. While he may not be the high batting average guy he once was, he has 17+ home runs and 6+ stolen bases in each of the last two years. He didn’t display his usual prowess against southpaws last season, but he was a lefty killer the few seasons prior to 2022. McCutchen hits a good bit of ground balls, but nothing to be overly concerned with from a power perspective, especially given that his hard hit rates and exit velocity has stayed similar over the years. Given the dearth of quality bats throughout the Pittsburgh lineup, McCutchen should be locked into an everyday role, and put forth 15-20 home runs and a .245-.250 batting average. |
LF | Adam Duvall | ATL | BOS | After an incredibly productive year in 2021 that saw him hit a career high 38 home runs and drive in 113 runners, Duvall came back to Earth a bit in 2022, though his season was cut short by a wrist injury. However, even prior to the injury, Duvall hadn’t been producing much, highlighted yb a .213 batting average and .295 wOBA, both of which were his lowest marks since 2018. When his bat did find the ball, there was a lot of hard contact, as he posted a respectable 12.8 percent barrel rate and 52.1 percent fly ball rate. Boston is banking on a return to his power form, though he’ll always be a batting average liability. He has a hard time staying in the zone, and because of that, chased a lot, and made a lot of contact out of the strike zone. It’s a good offensive park and division for a fly ball machine like Duvall, and this Boston lineup needs all the thump it can get. |
LF | Tommy Pham | BOS | NYM | The Mets wanted a fourth outfielder and Tommy Pham is pretty good one all thing considered. He may not be great defensively or hit for a good average, but he’s got some thump in his bat, and he has 32 home runs and 22 stolen bases over the last two seasons. He has a career .842 OPS and 132 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, so the Mets would be wise to maximize his at-bats against southpaws. This is a good lineup to be a part of, but it seems like Pham will be on the small side of a platoon, which isn’t great for fantasy production in 2023. Should any of the regular Mets outfielders go down, or Pham hits his way into being a DH at times for the time, this move has more real-life impact than in fantasy circles. |
LF | David Peralta | TB | LA | While the overall numbers in 2022 may not be anything exceptional, Peralta has put a focus on lofting the ball, and last year’s 15.1 degree launch angle would far and away be the highest of his career. When pairing that with an 8.5 percent barrel rate, there’s some power optimism in 2023. His new home park is average for left-handed hitters, and he should play on the large side of any platoon, getting the majority of his at-bats against right-handers. He won’t play versus southpaws, so that’s something to keep in mind. |
CF | Aaron Judge | NYY | NYY | The sweepstakes for the 2022 AL MVP is over, and Judge will head back to New York on a massive $360M deal. Judge bet on himself prior to this season, and to say he's a massive winner is an understatement. His Statcast page is littered with red numbers, which is good, and who cares about the strikeouts and whiffs when you are literally in the game's best in every other category. Staying in New York is great for his fantasy value, as he has crushed it in Yankee Stadium for his career. While there may be some regression for Judge in 2022, he's still the best power asset in fantasy baseball, and fantasy baseball managers who draft him in the first round will hope that he runs at the same clip he did last year. Prior to his 16 stolen bases in 2022, he had just 24 stolen bases in his previous six seasons. Even if he only steals 10 bases this year, you're looking at a guy who has a 40+ homer floor with those 10 steals, and a well above average batting average. The Yankees did what they had to do to preserve the heart of its order, and now they just need another high-contact/high OBP guy to add to the lineup. |
CF | Brandon Nimmo | NYM | NYM | Nimmo parlayed a solid 2022 campaign into a big contract, and while I think it’s an overpay, one can rationalize what the Mets did based on what they see. Injuries have been a concern for Nimmo, seeing as he only has two seasons in his career (2018, 2022) where he played in at least 140 games. He posted the second-highest barrel rate of his career last year at seven percent, but if he wants to be a 20+ homer guy like he can be, there can’t be a repeat of 2022’s 50.5 percent ground ball rate. In years past, it was in the mid-to-upper 40s range. He made nice improvements last year in terms of his plate discipline, and with no major split disadvantages, he can be a stalwart in the Mets’ lineup for years to come, health willing of course. It was interesting that he only hit .234 at home last year, but that could be an outlier. Ultimately, the Mets secured an outfield spot for the next eight years, but this seems like a slight overpay for Nimmo heading into his 30-year-old season and as previously mentioned, he only has two seasons where he has played 140+ games. From a fantasy perspective, if Nimmo stays healthy in 2023, we could see some slight improvements compared to his 2022 numbers, especially if he trades some ground balls for liners and fly balls. He has the ability to hit 20+ home runs, but it won’t happen with a 50+ percent ground ball rate. We’d love to see the Mets add another impact bat, particularly in the bottom the third of the order, to help turn the lineup over to Nimmo. |
CF | Cody Bellinger | LA | CHI | Can he possibly be just three years removed from winning an NL MVP? The Dodgers have been trying desperately to fix his broken swing since then but to no avail. The Cubs think they might be able to and hence signed him to a one-year, $17.5-million deal. It’s a prove-it deal for a Gold Glove centerfielder who’s still just 26 years old. The Cubs need a lot of help before they’re competing and this isn’t really a move to have them compete in 2023. It’s more of a “hey if it works out, great, if not, we tried” type of deal. All of that being said, there are clips of him working on his swing this offseason and it looking far better, granted against batting practice pitches. The lefty stroke, when right, is tailor-made for Wrigley Field but there are big questions about if it’s going to be right or not. For much of 2023, Bellinger may resemble more of Jayson Heyward than anything else. There will always be fantasy baseball players hoping this is the year for Beli’s return but be more like the Cubs and make him prove it and you’ll be better off. |
RF | Mitch Haniger | SEA | SF | Is this the outfielder we all expected to go to San Fran? Well, maybe not the main one but this is still a great addition to the Giants’ lineup that desperately needed pop. Sure, last year was a down year for him not only in pop but average as well, though he only played in 51 games after being injured. The thing with Haniger though, is that he’s posted 150+ games played every other year with 26 or more homers in each of those same seasons including a 39-110-100 stat line in 2021. As for last year’s .246 AVG, his .293 BABIP and .319 wOBA suggest he was a better hitter than he got credit for. While the power might trail off a bit in San Fran given how that park plays, he should be an extra-base hit monster with the power alleys in play and thus his average, slugging, and run-production should still be good as long as he’s on the field. That’s long been the question with Haniger; health. Let’s also not downplay that every hitter for the last few years to go to San Fran has had a better year than expected and that’s likely in line for Haniger in 2022. |
RF | Brett Phillips | BAL | LAA | Brett Phillips hit 13 home runs and stole 14 bases in 119 games for the Rays in 2021, despite hitting .206. Outside of that season, he hasn’t done much to say the least. The strikeout rate has been out of this world over the last two seasons (40%) and he has just a .178 batting average and .264 OBP during that span. He’s not going to impact the Angels with the bat, but what he will bring is elite defense, and perhaps spell Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, or Hunter Renfroe in the late innings if desired. Over the last two years, he is tied for fifth in runs prevented and outs above average, and his arm strength has been in at least the 97th percentile in each of the last three seasons, per Baseball Savant. |
RF | Michael Conforto | NYM | SF | After seven years with the Mets, Conforto inked a deal with the Giants that includes an opt out after 2023 if he hits 350 plate appearances. Conforto is going to bet on himself a bit, with the hopes that the 2023 version of himself compares more closely to his 2017-2019 form. In those years, he hit for power and a respectable average, while being a slightly above average defender. He hit for a good average in 2020, but struggled in 2021 before missing all of the 2022 season. There are going to be plenty of questions about his shoulder, but when Conforto is at his best, he makes a lot of hard contact with a double-digit barrel rate. This isn’t a major park upgrade heading to San Fran, but there’s enough pop in that bat to make a difference for this lineup. From a fantasy perspective, there's definitely some risk, given the relative unknown(s) about his shoulder, but so long as he doesn't get too priced up, he could be a bat worth investing in. However, this comes with the understanding that he very well could start the year rather slow, seeing that his last at-bat in a major league game came on October 3, 2021. |
RF | Brian Anderson | MIA | MIL | After six years in Miami, Anderson inked a deal with Milwaukee, where he may have found a nice little home. He doesn’t carry immense pop, but he did 20 home runs back in 2019, and this is most certainly a park upgrade for the 29-year-old righty. He uses all parts of the field, and he is more endearing from a fantasy perspective for those who play in leagues that value OBP, thanks to never having a walk rate lower than 8.5 percent in his entire career. He has primarily played third base and outfield in his major league career, but he’s made a rare occasion at first, second, and shortstop as well, so Milwaukee should covet his versatility. If he performs in the spring, he could get an everyday role to start the season, though he, Brice Turang, and Luis Urias will be the primary candidates for second and third base, and the only corner outfield spot up for grabs would be right field, that’s if Milwaukee isn’t fully on board with Tyrone Taylor. |
OF | Masataka Yoshida | FA | BOS | First things first, we have to expect him to struggle a bit a times. Just look back at what we saw from Seiya Suzuki in Chicago a year ago. That being said, at his best he’s a very efficient hitter. In seven years in the NPB he combined for a slash line of .327/.421/.539 with a .960 OPS and just 300 strikeouts in 762 game (3,189 PA and 2,703 AB) with 421 walks. There’s not elite speed, just 21 steals in the seven seasons, but it’s enough to get a handful of steals a year in the majors. Everyone wants to focus on power so let's touch on that. He’s hit for 20 or more homers in four of the last five years in the NPB with the lone exception being 2020. All told he hit 133 home runs in the 762 games. If, and this is a big if and not a great way of extrapolating data, he can hold that pace, that works out to 28 home runs in a 162-game MLB season with four steals with his runs tallying 88 and 99 RBI. The runs probably stay about there while the RBI drop given that he’ll be the likely leadoff hitter for Boston rather than a middle-of-the-order bat like he was for the Orix Buffaloes. Yoshida is a left-handed hitter so the dimensions of Fenway Park as well as most of the rest of the AL East plays into his natural swing direction for power. The biggest adjustment he’ll need to make is getting used to the velocity and spin of MLB pitchers since pitchers stateside throw harder, on average, with more movement and spin than those in the NPB. His value in fantasy baseball of 2023 is that of an OF3 who can help with your average and/or on-base stats while providing 20 or so home runs. |
DH | J.D. Martinez | BOS | LA | The home runs may not have been there in 2022 for Martinez, but overall, his batted ball profile remained largely similar. His swinging strike rate was in line with year’s past, and he didn’t leave the zone anymore than normal either. His contact rate did drop overall to 71.8 percent, which was his lowest mark since 2017, and a reduction in his HR/FB rate to just 10.3 percent hurt the home run production for sure, because it surely wasn’t because of his fly ball total or barrel rate. Martinez continues to crush left-handed hitters, and he’ll now join a very hitter friendly park for a right-hander, and will see his name penciled in on the lineup card in or around the heart of the order. Martinez will join a talented lineup in Los Angeles, and the park should play up his power quite nicely. |
DH | Nelson Cruz | WSH | SD | The Padres add a certified thumper to its lineup in Cruz, as if this offense needed anymore firepower. Cruz is coming off his worst statistical year in quite some time, as he hit just .234 with a .337 SLG and 10 home runs across 124 games played. His .337 SLG was his lowest since he posted a .384 mark back in 2007 when he was with the Rangers! The veteran slugger did see his average exit velocity, launch angle, and barrel rate all take significant decreases, but the optimism is that his .337 SLG is quite low compared to his .399 xSLG. In 2023, we’d love to see his fly ball rate get closer to the mid-to-upper 40s, because another season with a sub-30 percent fly ball rate won’t do him any favors in his new home park that leans more favorable to pitchers than right-handed hitters. Cruz should play everyday against left-handers at the very least, but looking at the depth of the San Diego lineup, there’s no reason to think he couldn’t be the team’s everyday DH for the entire 2023 season. |
SP | Jacob deGrom | NYM | TEX | deGrom had a heap ton of money left on the table with the Mets that he walked away from to reach free agency. Now, he’ll get paid $37 million a year to anchor the rotation in Arlington and try and lead a team to an AL West title. In all honesty, it’s hard to say what this means for deGrom in terms of performance or numbers on the mound as he’s already the best pitcher in the world and ranks third all-time in career ERA among pitchers with at least 200 starts, only behind Sandy Koufax and Clayton Kershaw. When deGrom has been on the mound he’s been elite, but that’s the thing when he’s been on the mound. We have to keep in mind that he’s been danged up a lot over the last few years and whether we want to chalk that up to the Mets’ training staff or him, it’ll be something to watch for sure as he moves his career to Texas. In terms of how Texas and the AL West will differ from the NL East, the bulk of the AL West parks are more hitter-friendly, with four of the five parks being in the top-14 of the league in Home Run park factors last year. That includes Anaheim and Arlington being in the top-five. Expect to see a slight uptick in his ERA and WHIP as he adjusts to the new surroundings and his first year of a new deal. One can only hope that the Rangers’ offense gives him more run support than the infamously low level of help he got from the Mets’ lineup. |
SP | Justin Verlander | HOU | NYM | There were serious questions as to what exactly Verlander would be in 2022 as a 39-year-old pitcher coming off of Tommy John surgery and having pitched just six innings in the last two years combined. He answered emphatically by winning the AL Cy Young Award — a third — with a stellar season. Even with the injury midseason, he posted 175 innings over 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 3.09 SIERA, and a very good 27.8-percent K-rate. The stuff was all there, not only control- and break-wise but with velocity too. All of his four-pitch mix average velocity above or around his career averages for each weapon including a fastball averaging 95 mph for the first time since 2018. That’s all well and good but what is his value going forward now that he’s moved to the NL East? This is where things get interesting. The NL East, ballpark-wise is a more pitcher-friendly division than the AL West in terms of park factors. Keep in mind that, as was mentioned in the Jacob deGrom to the Texas Rangers write-up, four of the five AL West parks were in the top-14 in park factors — in terms of offense — last year. That’s not the case in the NL East with just two in the top-14 based on home runs. Offense-wise The Phillies and Braves are really the only threats, that he’ll be facing, and that gives us hope he can have a similarly dominant year in Queens in 2023. There are concerns about whether the Mets can keep their pitchers healthy given the long history of injuries they’ve racked up and, you know, Verlander going into his age-40 season. Even with an expected regression in ERA, the K-rate, BB-rate, WHIP, and results should be about the same if not improved from 2022. That puts him as a top-3 fantasy pitcher for all formats in 2023. |
SP | Carlos Rodón | SF | NYY | The Yankees did what they needed to do. The team needed another legitimate ace in the rotation, and Rodon, when healthy, is just that. Prior to the past couple of seasons, the knock on Rodon was always health. He was a decent source of strikeouts with a respectable ERA, but prior to 2021, he only had one season with over 140 innings pitched (2016). He’s stayed pretty healthy the past two seasons, en route to going 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA (2.42 FIP) and 33.9 percent strikeout rate. He’s primarily a two-pitch guy, but his lively fastball and wipeout slider give batters fits. Home runs haven’t been an issue for him the past couple of seasons, so we might see a slight bump in his home run rate, particularly when he pitches in his home park. Regardless, Rodon is an ace coming off his two best seasons as a pro, and he’ll immediately slot in behind Gerritt Cole as the second starter in the New York rotation in 2023. He’ll get plenty of run support from his new team, and a high strikeout lefty like himself could wreak havoc on the AL East. UPDATE: Rodon is going to start the year on the injured list, likely missing a handful of starts. |
SP | Chris Bassitt | NYM | TOR | After being rather under appreciated for his production the past few years in Oakland, Bassitt was solid on a bigger stage in the Mets’ rotation. He went 15-9 over a career-high 181.2 innings of work, posting a 3.42 ERA (3.66 FIP), 22.4 percent strikeout rate, and 6.6 percent walk rate. He upped the usage on his curveball and slider compared to years past, and his sinker continues to induce a hearty number of ground balls. As he goes to the American League East, he’s going to need to keep the ball on the ground at a similar clip as he did in 2022, which was actually a career best for him. The AL East is loaded with some good offenses, but more notably, a couple hitter-friendly parks. From a fantasy perspective, the move to Toronto is rather neutral, with maybe a slight lean to a net-negative. He’ll have a great offense backing him again, but it’s a park downgrade, and the American League East is no slouch when it comes to offensive firepower. Health willing, he will eat a lot of innings for the Blue Jays and fantasy baseball managers as a middle of the rotation arm, with an average at best strikeout rate, but I expect his ERA this year to be closer to 4.00 than last year’s 3.42 mark. |
SP | Taijuan Walker | NYM | PHI | Just like we saw Zack Wheeler do a few years ago, Walker is now doing — signing with the Phillies in free agency after playing for the Mets. The righty was inked to a four-year, $72-million deal early in the winter meetings. They needed help in the rotation to be sure as they were out-dueled in the starting department in the playoffs once teams got past Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler and now Walker gives them depth in the starting five. The question is, is he worth the $18-million AAV or not. He pitched 157.1 innings for the Mets in 2022 over 29 starts to the tune of a 3.49 ERA (3.65 FIP, 4.05 SIERA) and so-so K- and BB-rates. He’s familiar with the division already but he moves to the most hitter-friendly home park in the division with this signing. He also won’t be a fifth starter for the Phillies which means there’ll be more pressure on him to produce for a clearly built to try and repeat as NL champs, if not more. |
SP | Clayton Kershaw | LA | LA | Was he really going to go anywhere else? He’s been with the Dodgers for nearly a decade and a half, and has 197 career wins with a 2.48 ERA. He may not be the workhorse he once was, but when healthy, he’s one of the game’s best pitchers, and continues to torture hitters with his pitch mix. Of course, he has his curveball that’s destined for Cooperstown, but his slider has always been one of his most lethal pitches, seeing as it perennially has a whiff rate north of 35 percent. Kershaw’s postseason struggles are well documented, and he hasn’t thrown more than 150 regular season innings since 2019, but he’s one of the best on a per-inning basis. From a fantasy perspective, again, he isn’t what he used to be, so be careful pushing him up too high on draft day due to name recognition alone. |
SP | Noah Syndergaard | PHI | LA | Syndergaard is betting on himself again this year, as he’s taking a one-year prove it deal to pitch for the Dodgers. The 30-year-old posted a 10-10 record with a 3.94 ERA over 25 appearances (24 starts) last season, but from a fantasy perspective, he wasn’t all that useful. His 6.35 K/9 (16.8 K%) is painfully low, and he’s simply not the same pitcher he used to be. His fastball velocity is way down, and he used non-fastballs over half of the time in 2022. For a frame of reference, back in 2018 and 2019, he used his four-seamer and sinker roughly 54 and 59 percent of the time respectively. Syndergaard is going to pitch to more contact, and let his sinker generate plenty of ground balls. Syndergaard isn’t going to be the electrifying pitcher he once was, and he should use his sinker more and more to generate ground balls and weak contact. The 30-year-old righty can still be useful in fantasy formats, as he should eat up innings and post a respectable ERA (upper 3s to low 4s), but you’ll need other strikeout arms to account for Syndergaard’s dearth of strikeouts. |
SP | Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | TEX | Eovaldi’s overall record (6-3) may not show it, but Eovaldi was actually quite good for the Red Sox in 2022 when on the mound. He was limited to just 20 starts last year due to stints on the injured list for back and shoulder inflammation, but when on the mound, he posted a 3.87 ERA with an 8.48 K/9 and third straight season with a sub-2.00 BB/9. He used his splitter much more last season, and I’d expect that trend to continue to help keep the ball on the ground. He does allow a ton of hard contact, and home runs hurt him last year, so any chance he has to keep the ball on the ground will behoove Eovaldi. Getting out of the American League East should benefit Eovaldi in and of itself, but he’s also benefitting from moving to a more pitcher friendly environment at Globe Life Field. Texas has enough thump in the lineup to give him some run support, and hopefully his new home park and further increased usage of his splitter can push his HR/9 closer to 1.00 than 2.00. Eovaldi could be a nice value arm in fantasy baseball drafts in 2023, assuming he doesn’t get pushed too far up the board, and the necessary injury risk is baked in. |
SP | Tyler Anderson | LA | LAA | It was Anderson’s best year of his career in 2022 as the Dodgers work their magic on pitchers once more. Now, the team across town wants to see if they can help keep that going. He went 15-5 in 30 games, 28 starts, with a 2.57 ERA and 3.31 FIP. The only things that really explain the better numbers, aside from playing for the pitching gurus in LA, was a shift to more changeups and less cutters which helped increase the ground ball rate. The other thing that helped was keeping the ball in the park. His 6.4% HR/FB rate was only the second time it’s been under 10 in his career, the other season being 2020. If what he figured out in his season in Dodger blue sticks with him over his three-year deal with the Angels, they have a number 3-4 starter for their burgeoning rotation in a park that’s nearly identical in park factors to Dodger Stadium. |
SP | Jameson Taillon | NYY | CHI | One could argue that 2022 was a career year for Taillon, as he went 14-5 and posted a 3.91 ERA across 177.1 innings, the most he’s thrown in a season since logging 191 in 2018. Home runs are still a bit of an issue for Taillon, but at Yankee Stadium last season, his 0.99 HR/9 was far better than his 1.66 HR/9 mark on the road. The wind can be a nuisance for pitchers in Chicago at times, but when looking at the division and ball park, this should be considered an upgrade, even just a slight one, for Taillon. Sure, he’ll have to pitch at Great American Ball Park and face the Cardinals, but the Pirates are also in the division, and Taillon’s new divisional foes, albeit solid, don’t pack the offensive punch that the rest of the AL East could pose. With pitching being a hot commodity this offseason, many might think this is an overpay for a pitcher like Taillon, who’s game is predicated on consistency and reliability more so than an overpowering presence on the mound. However, when healthy, he’s as consistent as they come, and should be a rock solid second or third starter for the Cubs in 2023. Fantasy wise, he’s a bit underwhelming due to a below-average strikeout rate, but he’s logged 29 or more starters in two straight seasons, and should be able to provide 170+ innings for fantasy managers with an ERA in the low-4s. |
SP | Jose Quintana | STL | NYM | Does anyone realize how good Quintana was last year? He pitched to a 2.93 ERA (2.99 FIP) over 32 starts and 4.4 bWAR. Then just for kicks he allowed 0.4 HR/9, an NL-low. Yet he’ll be the fourth starter for the Mets in 2023. That’s a steal to be perfectly honest. He’s not been a dominating starter for a while but he’s been more than serviceable in real life and fantasy respects. Now, a few things to keep in mind, he spent all of last year in the NL Central splitting time between the Cardinals and Pirates; those offenses aren’t to the level of the ones in the NL East. Also, he was phenomenal in his wins (six starts 1.01 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 33K in 35.2 IP), terrible in losses (5.57 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, .321 BAA, .522 SLG in seven starts) but lived mostly in between with 19 no decisions that saw a 2.76 ERA. 1.15 WHIP and a .226 BAA. If he can avoid the seven blowups he’s a steal of a fourth starter and with the anticipated offensive support the Mets can offer, there should be more wins in his favor this year and yours a fantasy manager of his. |
SP | Sean Manaea | SD | SF | Manaea flopped a bit in San Diego this past year, going 8-9 over 158 innings with a 4.96 ERA (4.05 xERA, 4.53 FIP, 3.96 xFIP) and 1.30 WHIP. The combination of his second-highest fly ball rate of his career with career worsts in barrel rate (9.1%) and hard hit rate (42.6%) hurt him, particularly in the HR/9 department. His 1.65 HR/9 in San Diego in 2022 vastly exceeded his 1.16 HR/9 from 2016-2021 when he was in Oakland. There was no real change in his pitch mix, and his pitch velocities look fine. He was solid at home, a pitcher’s park, but on the road, he surrendered a 6.16 ERA, not to mention a 1.84 HR/9, .497 SLG, and .351 wOBA. He’ll be staying in the same division, and going to another pitcher’s park, but when looking at Manaea’s career as a whole, he’s always been a guy that has pitched best in his home park (3.68 career ERA at home vs. 4.45 career ERA on the road). This is a good move for the Giants, who could be getting a solid middle of the rotation arm at under $13M per year, and with an opt out after this year, it’s really a low-risk, high-reward signing for San Fran. If the Giants can sprinkle some of that magic pitching dust that they have to revive Manaea after a rough 2022 season, this could be a really, really good signing. This is, of course, all health willing, seeing as Manaea has dealt with shoulder issues quite frequently throughout his MLB career, and 2021 is the only time he’s thrown more than 165 innings or made 30+ starts in a season. |
SP | Mike Clevinger | SD | CWS | It wasn’t exactly a good run for him in San Diego following the 2020 trade. Perhaps the White Sox are hoping they got the pitcher they saw for four years in their division. If we set aside the recent trouble in San Diego when he was injured and not pitching well, there is some intrigue here. During his time in the AL Central, in three years of 120 or more innings, he never posted an ERA worse than 3.11 nor a FIP worse than 3.85 and was over 9.3 K/9 in all three years. Now could that have been the Cleveland pitching coach and system? Perhaps. Could it have been terrible offenses in the AL Central? Perhaps. Either way, if he can stay healthy, which is a big if at this point having topped 130 innings just once in his career, there’s late round flier value here. We’ve seen what Ethan Katz has done for Dylan Cease and perhaps he can work his magic for Clevinger now as well. |
SP | Zach Eflin | PHI | TB | The three-year, $40 million deal handed out to Eflin by Tampa is the largest free agent deal ever given out by Tampa. That says something. The intent is for him to join the rotation in Tampa as likely the number 3 or 4 starter. That could be interesting to see how it works out unless they feel they can work their pitching magic on him too. Why do I say that? Well, lets look back at last year’s splits shall we? First of all, he split time between the rotation and bullpen with 13 starts and 20 total appearances. Secondly, his home-road splits weren’t great with a 1.73 home ERA (3.31 FIP) and a 6.88 road mark (3.88 FIP) with better K-rate, BB-rate, WHIP, BAA, and wOBA at home, by significant margins. Thirdly, his ERA in the Phillies’ rotation was a 4.37 while it was a 1.17 mark out of the pen, though in a much smaller sample size. Granted the Phillies weren’t built for defense ranking 29th in OAA and 25th in DRS while Tampa was 15th and 14th in those respectively last year. Eflin has never been a guy to blow the doors off of stat lines in his career as he’s typically been in the low-4s in ERA and mid-3s in FIP with serviceable K-rates, reasonable BB rates, and declining WHIP numbers over the last four years. That’s all Tampa really needed to round out their rotation featuring Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and whomever they decide will be the fifth arm, perhaps Taj Bradley. He’ll get a boost from the better defense but overall moving to the AL East is a downgrade making him nothing better than an SP5 option in fantasy baseball in 2023. |
SP | Andrew Heaney | LA | TEX | Chris Young must be a salesman with first adding deGrom and now Heaney on a multi-year deal. Sure he’s not nearly as impactful as the other high-priced additions over the last few years, but he’s worth it for the Rangers nonetheless as he’ll lengthen the rotation, as long as he’s healthy. Can we expect the same output that he had last year in L.A. with a 3.10 ERA (3.39 xERA, 3.75 FIP, 2.46 SIERA) over his 72.2 innings and a half a year of starts? That’s likely not sustainable given his career path before 2022. Last year was his second-ever season with an ERA under 4.00 with the last one being his second season in the majors. There’s also a downgrade in terms of park factors, in that he’s in a tougher division for pitchers, and the offenses he’s facing will be tougher with Texas than they were with the Dodgers. He’s tough to bank on for anything more than an SP5 with some strikeout upside as long as he’s on the mound but not much more. |
SP | Kyle Gibson | PHI | BAL | The Orioles are in an interesting spot this offseason as they were a bona fide playoff contender last year but don’t want to stretch the budget too much while awaiting the rest of the influx of their young talent that’s still to come up. That’s where the one-year, $10-million signing of Gibson comes in. They needed another arm in the rotation and one that can eat innings in the back half; precisely what Gibson is. In some respects, last year was a very good year for Gibson as he posted the lowest SIERA of his career, the lowest BB% and BB/9 of his career, and best K-BB% of career. However, he still had an ERA over 5.00, a subpar K/9 and K%, and a 1.34 WHIP. Perhaps moving to a park that was markedly more pitcher-friendly in 2022 with the now-largest left field in baseball. If you need an SP6 for fantasy baseball, Gibson likely won’t kill you too much. |
SP | Michael Lorenzen | LAA | DET | Lorenzen didn’t exactly provide the type of stability for the Angels’ rotation that they were hoping for, but he did go 8-6 across 18 starts with a 4.24 ERA (3.91 xERA, 4.31 FIP) for the team. He missed some time with a shoulder injury. He missed some time in the summer months with a shoulder injury, and it’s possible that he pitched through it for a bit, seeing as in the five starts prior to going on the IL, he went 1-4 with an 8.61 ERA, while walking more batters, surrendering more home runs, and allowing a ton of hard contact. Upon his return from the IL, he was much better, as he allowed three or fewer earned runs in all five starts, and struck out six or more batters in all but one of them. His fastball velocity was a bit down, which is something to watch in 2023, but Detroit will hope he can solidify the middle-to-back-end of its rotation. The Tigers’ pitching staff must harness his command, because he simply cannot endure self-induced damage. He has a double-digit walk rate in three straight seasons, and he had just three starts last season with fewer than two walks in an outing. |
SP | Corey Kluber | TB | BOS | Kluber will remain in the American League East, as he inked a one-year deal with Boston. The deal does include a club option for 2024 as well. Kluber logged 164 innings for the Rays in 2022, posting a 10-10 record with a 4.34 ERA across 31 starts. His 3.57 FIP, 3.92 xFIP, and 4.00 xERA indicate he may have been a bit unlucky in terms of his ERA. His strikeouts dipped below one batter per inning for the first time since 2013, and he posted the highest fly ball rate of his career. The Rays ramped up the usage of his cutter, which generates a heathy amount of fly balls. Health willing, Kluber will eat up innings for a Boston rotation that needs as many healthy arms as possible, but it is worth noting that as the year went on, he really tailed off, to the tune of a 5.14 ERA and .303 BAA over his last 70 IP. |
SP | Jordan Lyles | BAL | KC | Lyles is a proven veteran that has at least 179 innings pitched in each of the past two seasons. Now, they haven’t exactly been the most lucrative for fantasy purposes, seeing as his ERA over the past two years is closer to five than four, and he hasn’t posted a strikeout rate north of 20 percent since 2019. I wouldn’t be surprised to continue dropping his four-seamer usage, as he has each of the past three seasons, in lieu of more sinkers and sliders. He’s not going to become a big strikeout guy all of a sudden, but he can provide a hearty number of innings for fantasy baseball managers, and pitching in the AL Central is far better than where he was last (AL East). Seeing the current makeup of the Kansas City rotation, they are going to let Lyles eat up innings, and a repeat of his 2022 season seems very repeatable. |
SP | Rich Hill | BOS | PIT | Hill will join the Pittsburgh rotation and likely serve as a mentor for some of the younger arms in that rotation. From a fantasy perspective, there isn’t much to like here with Hill. Why is that you may ask? Well, he’s logged more than 140 innings just twice in his entire career (2007, 2021), his strikeout rate is in the low-20s now, whereas he used to be closer to 30 percent. The veteran southpaw will live and die by his curveball, and his home park will be a slight upgrade compared to Fenway Park. However, there’s minimal fantasy appeal with Hill with his new club. |
SP | Zach Davies | ARI | ARI | Davies somehow managed to go just 2-5 across 27 starts for Arizona last year, and his 4.09 ERA seems lucky, considering his 4.83 FIP. He surrendered another 1.40+ HR/9 season, but he did manage to enjoy slight dips in his average exit velocity and barrel rate compared to his porous 2021 season. If Davies isn’t striking batters out, something he doesn’t do often, his fantasy value plummets. However, we did see him actually striking out batters in the first “half” of the season (13 starts), as he posted a 7.43 K/9 and seven starts with five or more strikeouts. However, over the last 14 starts, his strikeout rate dropped by five percent, and down to a 6.20 K/9, while posting just three starts with five or more strikeouts. To be fair, he did miss some time with right shoulder inflammation, and upon his return, he dropped the usage on his changeup, and his sinker was pounded down the stretch. Davies has never been a reliable source of strikeouts, so we shouldn’t look too much into his “hot start” to the 2023 season, but Arizona should be a better ball club in 2023, and he did post a 3.16 ERA and 7.11 K/9 in State Farm Stadium in 2022. |
SP | Wade Miley | CHI | MIL | The veteran southpaw will head back to Milwaukee, a place he should be quite fond of, considering back in 2018 he was 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA across 16 starts. Miley is a pitch-to-contact southpaw who won’t blow anyone away with overpowering velocity. He does a great job limiting hard contact and his changeup is a ground ball machine. He was limited to just nine appearances last year, as he served multiple stints on the IL for left-arm related issues (elbow, shoulder), and to be frank, Miley isn’t getting any younger. When healthy, he’s a reliable innings eater that can help solidify the back end of a rotation. From a fantasy perspective, he doesn’t miss bats, and while he does limit hard contact, his ERA might be closer to 4.00 than 3.00 this year, if not above it. I do have concerns with the new shift regulations that his pitch-to-contact mantra and lack of swing-and-miss stuff could cause some issues for Miley. Even with the lack of strikeouts, if Miley stays healthy, you could do far worse than 150+ innings with a 3.80-4.20 ERA with one of your late round selections. |
SP | Johnny Cueto | CWS | MIA | Ignore his 8-10 record last year, and his 5.80 K/9, and Cueto was quite serviceable for fantasy managers, posting a 3.35 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 158.1 IP. At this stage of his career, Cueto doesn’t miss bats, and his veteran presence should help a Miami rotation loaded with young, talented arms. Additionally, he can eat up innings to help preserve some of those young arms, regardless of whether Miami trades any of them pre- or intra-season. Last year, Cueto tanked the usage on his four-seamer, en route to using his sinker more, and as his velocity diminishes, that trend should continue. A pitch-to-contact guy like Cueto might get burned a bit by the new shift rules, but he does allow a good bit of fly balls, and in his new home park, he should fare better. Per Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, Guaranteed Rate Field ranks seventh in Park Factor over the last three years, whereas loanDepot park comes in at 18th. His dearth of strikeouts won’t endear him to fantasy baseball managers, but he can be a reliable source of innings, and in the later rounds of your drafts, 150+ IP with a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.30 WHIP can be valuable in its own right. |
SP | Zack Greinke | KC | KC | Greinke went just 4-9 for the Royals last season, and his 3.68 ERA was quite lucky, considering his 4.78 xERA, 4.03 FIP, and 4.54 xFIP. He doesn’t strike batters out, he’s done missing bats, and he’s allowing a lot of hard contact in the latter years of his career. His fly ball rate is trending up, and with that increased contact, I don’t expect a repeat of last year’s 0.92 HR/9, even with a home park to help him out. Greinke did post a 1.81 ERA over his final eight starts of the season, but the lack of strikeouts is killer for fantasy purposes. He should eat up some innings, but the new rules don’t exactly favor a pitcher like Greinke, which is why his ERA will be closer to 5.00 this year compared to his 3.68 mark in 2022. |
SP | Michael Wacha | BOS | SD | Across 23 starts for the Red Sox last year, Wacha went 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA (4.56 xERA, 4.14 FIP), and 1.12 WHIP. His 41 percent ground ball rate was his highest mark since 2019, but his numbers did drop off the as the year went on. He upped the usage on his sinker last season, which posted a 50 percent ground ball rate last season, and his changeup continues to be his best swing-and-miss pitch. He will move to a far better park for pitchers, and should provide some stability to the back end of the Padres rotation. |
RP | Edwin Díaz | NYM | NYM | For the second time in two years, Diaz posted 32 saves for the Mets except this time his ERA and K-rate were quite impressive. The ERA at 1.31 and an even lower FIP at 0.90 set him up to get a 5-year, $102-million deal from the Mets after running out of arbitration years. There are all sorts of ways to breakdown Diaz’s amazing 2022 campaign from his remarkably low BAA vs. LHH to his 50.2% K% to his 75% whiff rate on pitches out of the zone. All of them are impressive but all were powered by a major shift in his pitch mix. In his first six seasons he averaged 64.7% fastball and 35.1% slider. In 2022, he switched that to 58.1% slider and 41.9% fastball. Typically closers have a few prime years at which they’re at the heights of their powers and Diaz is clearly in that prime now and likely for the next couple of seasons as well. |
RP | Robert Suarez | SD | SD | Suarez gets a nice deal to stay with the Padres for at least the next three seasons. The deal is for five years, but there is a player option after the third year. What will be interesting with this deal is to see how it all plays out, given that he’s 31-years-old, and the Padres gave him $46M after making 45 appearances this season. Oh, those were his first 45 appearances in the MLB, may I add. Suarez racked up 61 strikeouts in just 47.2 innings of work, and his fastball and sinker both averaged over 97 miles per hour this season. His changeup posted a 40 percent whiff rate last season, and recency bias is a thing, so it’s hard not to love his 32:8 K/BB ratio and 1.48 ERA over his final 23 appearances on the season. Suarez figures to open the year as the primary setup man to closer Josh Hader. |
RP | Taylor Rogers | MIL | SF | Rogers’ ERA for the 2022 season was the worst of his career, but his 4.11 xERA, 3.31 FIP, and 3.26 xFIP indicate that he could have been a bit unlucky in that department. He converted 31-of-41 save opportunities last season, and after heading to Milwaukee, it was a mixed bag of results. His strikeout rate jumped to an excellent 36 percent, but his walk rate nearly doubled from his time in San Diego, and home runs were an issue for Rogers. Rogers’ slider is his best pitch, and while it may results in more fly balls, the whiff rate is excellent, and does a great job of minimizing hard contact. From a fantasy perspective, if the strikeouts remain high, Rogers could be an interesting late round flier, especially as the likely primary setup man to Camilo Doval. |
RP | Kenley Jansen | ATL | BOS | Jansen is a great closer, and there’s no denying that. He put up 41 saves in Atlanta last year, his most since 2017, and his 32.7 percent strikeout rate was his highest mark since 2017 as well. Jansen doesn’t figure to be a guy anymore with a strikeout rate around 40 percent, but he should hang out in the low-30s, which is a respectable mark, even if it doesn’t put him in the elite echelon of closers on a per-inning basis. He got a nice chunk of change to head to Boston, but the move is rather interesting to say the least from the team’s side. If Boston is planning on making some more splashes in free agency, maybe it’ll make more sense, but one could argue that Boston’s biggest strength at this point is its bullpen, and there were far more glaring weaknesses on the team that need addressed. It’s hard to argue with getting one of the best closers in the game for the past decade, but paying $16M a year for a closer seems a bit luxurious for a team with more glaring holes. |
RP | Adam Ottavino | NYM | NYM | Ottavino’s stuff is absolutely filthy, and he’s always been a high strikeout arm out of the pen. However, command was a pretty big issue. Prior to 2022, his career BB/9 of 4.15 was rather high, but in 2022, it was just 2.19! And guess what? The ERA remained low, the strikeouts remained, and he generated a ground ball more than half of the time, which is the first time he’s done that since 2016 when he was with Colorado. His slider is one of the game’s best, and he upped the usage on his sinker, which posted a launch angle of -5 degrees last season. Ottavino’s fantasy value in 2023 will be most prominent in leagues that value saves and holds, and his per inning effectiveness makes him an intriguing reliever, especially if we get another year with a sub-2.10 ERA and nearly 80 strikeouts. |
RP | Craig Kimbrel | LA | PHI | Kimbrel may not be the same dominant force he was in the prime of his career, but he’s still a solid reliever that will be of great value to the Philadelphia pen. In 2022, Kimbrel went 6-7 with 22 saves (5 BS) with a 3.75 ERA and career low 27.7 percent strikeout rate. His fastball velocity is trending down, and he upped the usage on his fastball last year, despite his curveball being a far more effective pitch on all fronts. For Kimbrel to increase his strikeouts, his pitch mix needs to be closer to 2021 (41% curveball) than 2022 (31% curveball). He allows some hard contact, actually quite a bit, and he might see an uptick in homers he allows due to his new home confines. However, even if he allows a few more home runs, he can still be valuable for fantasy managers, especially when you consider that in 2018 he posted a 1.01 HR/9 (3rd-worst of his career), yet he still had a 2.74 ERA and 13.9 K/9. Philadelphia is going to spread out the save opportunities, so he won’t be the clear-cut closer, but he’ll certainly be in the mix for opportunities when they arise, especially if Kimbrel is like the 2021 version of himself. Be careful overpaying for the name, because he is not guaranteed the lion's share of the ninth inning work. |
RP | Andrew Chafin | DET | ARI | Add another potential closer to the mix in Arizona. Chafin’s Statcast page from 2022 is filled with red, which is good, and his slider has wreaked havoc on opposing hitters over the past couple of seasons. Chafin may only have 11 saves in his career, but he has 123 holds over his nine-year career, and with a chance for saves in Arizona, he’s a sneaky play in leagues that value saves and holds. He keeps the ball in the park, and can miss enough bats to be useful in deeper formats that value saves and holds. |
RP | Rafael Montero | HOU | HOU | To say Montero was excellent for Houston last season might be an understatement. In the regular season, he posted a 2.37 ERA (2.70 xERA, 2.64 FIP) with 14 saves and 23 holds across 71 appearances. He allowed a measly 2.9 percent barrel rate, and his 52.9 percent ground ball rate was the second straight season that mark was north of 50 percent. Recency bias plays a factor, too, given that he posted a 1.93 ERA with four holds across 9.1 postseason innings. His sinker is a ground ball machine, and continued usage of that will keep that ground ball rate high. His non-fastball offerings don’t induce the number of whiffs that parlay into a high strikeout rate, but he limits hard contact, and keeps the ball on the ground. All of that to say, Montero is likely better in reality than fantasy, but if something were to happen to Ryan Pressly, Montero would be first in line for save opportunities. |
RP | Aroldis Chapman | NYY | KC | To say 2022 was Chapman’s worst year as a professional would be an understatement. His ERA ballooned to 4.46, his strikeout rate dropped below 30 percent for the first time ever and it marked the fourth time in five years that he posted a double-digit walk rate. Of course, there’s his off-field incidents as well, but the Royals handed him a heavily incentivized deal for the 2023 campaign. Scott Barlow was excellent last season, so Chapman won’t have a clear path to saves, but he’ll likely be used here and there if he can return to being the dynamic late-inning arm he was for the majority of his career. |
RP | David Robertson | PHI | NYM | Love this move in reality. The Mets add a righty with proven closing experience coming off a bounce back 2022 season. Robertson was excellent with the Cubs and Phillies last year, posting a 2.40 ERA, 11.45 K/9, and converting on 20-of-23 save opportunities. Robertson is no spring chicken at 37 years young (turns 38 in April), but his game isn’t predicated on velocity, which has helped him pitch into his latter-30s. While his cutter remains his primary pitch, he upped the usage on his curveball and slider in 2022 compared to recent memory, resulting in whiff rates of 44.4 percent and 38.2 percent respectively. He’ll serve as the primary setup man to Edwin Diaz, and if he keeps his strikeout rate from last year, will be an excellent fantasy pick in “solds” leagues. |
RP | Brad Boxberger | MIL | CHI | Signing Brad Boxberger likely doesn’t make anyone jump for joy, but he’s a quality southpaw who has nine wins, five saves, 52 holds, and a 3.15 ERA over the last two seasons. In fact, his 52 holds are second most in the majors over the last two seasons, and he’s one of only seven relievers with at least 40 holds and a sub-3.20 ERA over the last two seasons. He wasn’t as tough on left-handed hitters as he has been for most of his career, but if we look at his career as a whole, he’s allowed opposing lefties to slash just .198/.297/.322 against him, not to mention a 27.3 percent strikeout rate and measly .250 BABIP. He’s not a ground ball pitcher, so home runs can come back to bite him a bit, but his arsenal runs three pitches deep and he will provide a steady presence in the Chicago pen. He can close if called upon, and given his closing experience, don’t be surprised if Chicago leans on him in the ninth inning a bit more frequently early on in the season. |
RP | Seth Lugo | NYM | SD | Lugo wanted to go somewhere where he had a shot at the rotation, and San Diego seems to be that spot. He hasn’t made a start in the past two seasons, but he’s been effective as a reliever for the Mets, posting a 3.56 ERA, 7-5 record, four saves, 29 holds, and 1.22 WHIP. Lugo wants to start, as I mentioned, but statistically speaking, he’s been better as a reliever. His 2.91 ERA as a reliever and .263 wOBA are far better than his 4.35 ERA and .326 wOBA as a starter, but it’s not exactly comparing apples to oranges, seeing as his pitch mix has drastically changed since he was a starter last. While he may open the year as the team’s fifth starter, his stamina will come into question, and he’s only thrown more than 100 innings twice in his career, with the most recent time being back in 2018! He’ll be pitching in a pitcher friendly park with a good offense backing him, as well as a solid defensive crew, and I expect some of the changes that made him a better reliever will carry over into his starts. However, San Diego likely goes with a six-man rotation to try to preserve some innings for their guys, or Lugo may bounce around a bit for the team. |
RP | Chad Green | NYY | TOR | Green is recovering from Tommy John surgery, which limited him to just 15 innings pitched last season. When healthy, he sports an above-average fastball-curveball combo, with the latter posting a whiff rate of at least 31 percent in three straight seasons. His arsenal doesn’t produce many ground balls, which could be an issue with the new field dimensions in Toronto, but he was solid in terms of limiting hard contact in 2022. From 2019-2021, he posted a 1.46 HR/9 mark, but his career HR/9 was higher at Yankee Stadium than on the road. The Blue Jays inked Green to a two-year deal, affording Green and the team the luxury to ease him back in the mix, and once Green returns to full health, he figures to be one of the primary middle relievers for the Blue Jays. He shouldn’t be on the fantasy radar heading into the season, but he could be a name to watch come the summer months if he is able to return and showcase his 2021 form. |
RP | Michael Fulmer | MIN | CHI | The thought of Fulmer starting seems to be a thing of the past, as he has a career 2.98 ERA and 24.5 percent strikeout rate as a reliever in his career. He does a great job missing the barrel of the bat, and he’s upped the usage on his slider immensely as the years have passed. He primarily uses his slider, four-seamer, and sinker, and his slider is clearly his go-to weapon. The Chicago bullpen is far from solidified, and even if he doesn’t work his way into a ninth-inning role, he should be reliable for those leagues that value holds (or solds), while providing a strikeout per inning and respectable ratios. |
RP | Matt Moore | TEX | LAA | As a reliever, Moore flourished in 2022. He dropped the usage a bit on his fastball, and threw his curveball a career high 38.2 percent of the time. The switch in his pitch mix really helped him out, and he said goodbye to his cutter. He was a two-pitch guy against lefties, but his changeup was lethal against right-handed hitters. Moore did a great job minimizing hard contact, and the Angels needed another decent southpaw in its pen. He may get a save chance here and there throughout the course of the year, but he figures to be a setup guy for the Angels in 2023, and could be a nice ratio booster in AL-only formats if he can cut back on the walks a bit in 2023. |
C | Willson Contreras | CHI | STL | The former Cub and top catcher on the market inks a long-term deal with the division rival Cardinals. Contreras would have had numerous career highs last year if he wasn’t limited to injury, but even in his 113 games, he swatted 22 home runs, stole a couple of bags, and posted the lowest strikeout rate (21.1%) of his big league career. He may present a bit of a downgrade from a defensive standpoint as Yadier Molina, but he’s still a serviceable defensive option with a very live arm behind the dish. He joins a lineup that will boost his counting stats, as he should get plenty of chances with someone on base, and guys like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt will bring him around. At time of writing, the Cardinals don’t have a tried and true designated hitter, so don’t be surprised if he gets some DH at-bats mixed in over the course of the season. This is a great landing spot for Contreras from a fantasy perspective, and the Cardinals add the top free agent at the position to an already potential lineup. |
C | Gary Sánchez | MIN | SF | It looks like the Giants want a little extra insurance behind the dish after Joey Bart. Sanchez didn't look exceptional in the WBC and he's coming off a season where he hit just .205 with 16 home runs in 128 games. The power has always been there for Sanchez, but the strikeouts are high, and the batting average is out of control. He hit .299 and .278 in 2016 and 2017 respectively, but since those seasons, he has just one year (2019) with a batting average north of .206, including two years below the Mendoza line. He's not a great defender all things considered, there's too much swing-and-miss in his game, and he's not exactly going to a hitter friendly park. Of course, this is all assuming that he works his way onto the big league roster! |
C | Christian Vázquez | HOU | MIN | At least compared to Gary Sanchez, this is a defensive upgrade for Minnesota, so that should help the pitching staff. Offensively speaking, it’s a rather different offensive profile to say the least. Yes, he struggled in the postseason with the Astros, but prior to the trade, he was excellent in Boston. In fact, during his start of the year in Boston, his 162 game pace looked like this: .282/.327/.432, 15 HR, 64 R, 81 RBI, 2 SB. He’ll provide good batting average for the position, and there’s enough pop in that bat of his that his home run total should reside in the mid-to-low teens. He’s not a catcher you are necessarily overly excited to draft in fantasy, but he does a good job rounding out your fantasy team, as he provides solid numbers across multiple categories. |
C | Omar Narváez | MIL | NYM | This signing was rather interesting. The Mets already had James McCann and Tomas Nido on the roster at time of signing, and don’t forget about Francisco Alvarez, the team’s top prospect, waiting in the wings. Does this mean Alvarez will primarily DH? Looking at Narvaez’s deal, $7.5M a year doesn’t exactly scream backup money to me, or at the very least, someone who isn’t going to play semi-regularly. Narvaez can’t hit southpaws, so the Mets will opt for someone else when facing a lefty, and for his career, he’s hit righties at a .268 clip with a .751 OPS and 106 wRC+. Offensively speaking, Narvaez took a sizable step back in 2022, as his 2.4 percent barrel rate was a far cry from year’s past. However, he should be better in 2023, and even when operating on the larger side of a backstop platoon, even with his new home park being a slight downgrade, Narvaez should be much closer to his 2021 form than what he showed in 2022. Expect a corresponding move to be made here for the Mets, as they won’t go into the year with four catchers on the big league roster, leaving McCann and Nido (likely) to await their fate. |
C | Mike Zunino | TB | CLE | It was a disappointing year in 2022 for Zunino after a career-best 33-home campaign in 2021. Granted, it was due to injuries in 2022 more than performance as he only played 36 games. Extrapolating stats isn’t a great thing to do given the ebbs and flows of the season for players and teams, however, his early season start put him on pace for about 25 homers and 75 RBI. That’s what Cleveland is hoping they’re getting. They need some pop in their lineup as they finished 29th in home runs last year, only ahead of Detroit and still behind Washington. They’re also hoping to get a veteran catcher to help their top prospect, Bo Naylor, in getting adjusted to the big leagues in his age-23 season. If Zunino is healthy, the power is great at the catcher spot but the batting average is something that will need to be accounted for. His topped a .210 AVG just once in a full season in his career, which dates back to 2013. Not great Bob as they say. |
C | Tucker Barnhart | DET | CHI | The Cubs could have gone into the season with Yan Gomes as their primary backstop, but adding Barnhart is a wise move. Barnhart is an excellent defender, and that will likely be his biggest addition to the team. Offensively speaking, Barnhart isn’t anything exceptional, and despite spending 2014-2021 in Cincinnati, he only had two seasons (2018, 2019) with 10+ home runs, and he hasn’t hit above .250 since 2017 (.270). Barnhart figures to operate on the larger side of a platoon, seeing as he’s only a career .217 hitter against southpaws, whereas Gomes is a lifetime .279 hitter against southpaws. |
C | Austin Hedges | CLE | PIT | Well, Pittsburgh is knowing exactly what they are paying for ahead of time, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Hedges has some pop in his bat, as we saw in 2017 and 2018, but he is just a .189 career hitter with a .247 OBP. In 2022 with the Guardians, he cut back on his strikeout rate to a career best 23.1 percent, and his walk rate returned north of seven degrees, but all in all, it resulted in just a .163 average and .241 OBP. His average exit velocity has waned over the last two years, so while he may never be a 15+ home run guy, he seems good for around 10 round trippers, as he’s essentially locked in as the team’s primary backstop. He’s very good defensively, so perhaps his best fantasy impact will come from helping the Pittsburgh staff. |
1B | Anthony Rizzo | NYY | NYY | Rizzo’s last year and a half with the Yankees has been a bit of a resurgence for his career, as it almost seemed as if the end was near after he struggled with the Cubs at the end of his tenure with them. His first full season with the Yankees saw him only hit .224, but he posted a double-digit barrel rate for the first time in his career (since it was tracked), and he logged a second consecutive season with a hard hit rate north of 40 percent. Rizzo isn’t the guy he was with the Cubs in the early-to-mid-2010’s, but he’ll post a respectable walk rate, en route to a decent OBP, and Yankee Stadium will help offset any major drops in power. To Rizzo’s credit, he was still decent away from Yankee Stadium, so his power numbers aren’t completely driven by his home at-bats. The veteran first baseman will be a stalwart in the Yankee lineup, and Rizzo in Yankee Stadium is as close to a match made in heaven as Rizzo will find going into his age 33 season. |
1B | Carlos Santana | SEA | PIT | Santana has hit .207 over the last three seasons, but a 16.4 percent walk rate has his OBP at .323 during that span. There’s still some pop in that bat of his, but his main claim to fantasy “fame” in 2023 is going to be those who play in leagues that value OBP compared to batting average. Sure, Santana is only a handful of years removed from a 30+ home run season, but I’m just not buying into a bounce back into the veteran slugger who turns 37 years old in April. He’ll get plenty of at-bats in Pittsburgh, and there are some interesting fantasy pieces in that lineup, but overall, Santana is going to be the same fantasy asset he has been in recent seasons. What he stands to gain in terms of a slight batting average bump due to the shift ban, he’ll lose in counting stats by hitting in the Pittsburgh lineup. |
1B | José Abreu | CWS | HOU | Well this is a shocker! Who’d have thought he’d have left Chicago after being there his entire career? Perhaps the draw of a shot at a World Series win was too much to turned down, in addition to the money obviously. He’s been an elite hitter for his entire MLB career dating back to 2014 including winning the 2019 AL MVP award. Now, he’ll take his skill and ability to play a solid defense at first base to Houston and will likely slot in to the number four spot in the order. This will give Houston likely the most potent top-six in a lineup in the league. While the average has stayed mainly between .284 and .317 his whole career, the power has fluctuated. Since 2015, Abreu has hit 30 or more homers every other year which conveniently puts him on track to hit 30 or more homers in 2023 if the pattern holds. His swing fits the shorter porch in Houston very nicely as well, similar to Alex Bregman’s, and so we could see a power boost from him by changing from Chicago to Houston and the AL West in general. For the White Sox this opens the door for Andrew Vaughn to take the 1B role on an everyday basis going forward as well which should up his fantasy value as the power and average should come more into play with everyday at-bats and not just a half a year’s worth. |
1B | Josh Bell | SD | CLE | It was really a tale of two seasons for Bell in 2022. Through the first 103 games of his 2022 season, he was hitting .301 with 14 home runs and a 2.5 WAR. Then, he’s sent to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade, and his numbers tanked, as he hit just .192 with three home runs in 53 games with a -0.5 WAR. He doesn’t exactly have the typical batted ball profile of a first baseman, or corner infielder for that fact, but he can post solid power numbers when he’s in the middle of a hot streak. Ideally, he cuts back on the insane number of ground balls that he hits, so that he doesn’t have to rely on a high HR/FB rate to sustain his power output. This is a really good deal for Cleveland, because the switch-hitting Bell is coming off an overall solid season, highlighted by an 8.3 degree launch angle that was his highest since 2019. Besides being a switch-hitter, Cleveland is getting a durable first baseman who has played in 140+ games in every year since 2017, sans the shortened 2020 campaign, and a guy that has proven to be a reliable middle-of-the-order bat at the game’s highest level. |
1B | Trey Mancini | HOU | CHI | Following a trade to Houston, Mancini’s numbers cratered, and it seems as if he was pressing at the plate. He now heads to Chicago, which has revamped its lineup drastically, and when the wind gets to blowing out at Wrigley, Mancini’s batted ball metrics should lead to excellent fantasy production. He should have an everyday role with this team, and if he can move closer to the heart of the order, he could be in line for his best statistical year since 2019. However, a more realistic output is a .250 average and 20+ home runs, with a chance to get to 70+ runs scored and 70+ RBI. |
1B | Brandon Belt | SF | TOR | It will be interesting to see what Toronto’s plans are for Belt, because Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be starting just about everyday at first base or designated hitter, and when he mans first base, Toronto has a few options at DH. However, $9.3 million isn’t exactly backup money, and Belt is just one year removed from hitting a career best 29 home runs in just 97 games. He’s good for a trip to the IL a couple of times a year, but when on the field, he’s still a solid hitter who lofts the ball, and has a double-digit barrel rate in each of the last three seasons. I don’t love last year’s career worst 71.3 percent contact rate, and even if his strikeout rate is closer to 30 percent than 20 percent, he gets a home park upgrade, and should benefit from the other parks in the AL East as a left-handed bat. Toronto could sit him against left-handers, and given the depth of this Toronto lineup, Belt could be a headache for fantasy managers in leagues that don’t allow daily lineup changes. His power is enticing, and he’s in a much better lineup, but maintaining a regular role could be more of a challenge. |
1B | Matt Carpenter | NYY | SD | This is quite the story for Carpenter. After numerous productive years in St. Louis, it seemed like he fell off a cliff after the 2018 season, and labored through the 2020 and 2021 seasons, hitting .176 with a 29.9 percent strikeout rate. He re-worked his swing, and really helped anchor a New York Yankee lineup in 2022. Carpenter is going to primarily DH, and maybe play the field here and there, against right-handed pitching, operating in a platoon with his new club. He cut back on the strikeouts compared to his two horrendous years in 2020 and 2021, and while he hit .305 last year, it’s hard to ignore that .231 xBA, or the fact that his xSLG was .485 and his actual slug was .727. At the very least, Carpenter is an interesting late round flier in fantasy baseball drafts, because he could see a good chunk of at-bats in a star-studded San Diego lineup. He figures to operate on the larger side of a platoon, but if your league doesn’t allow for daily moves, Carpenter becomes much more in-season management. |
1B | Eric Hosmer | BOS | CHI | The Eric Hosmer name doesn’t carry the same weight it used to by any means. He wasn’t horrible in 2022, but just boring from a fantasy perspective, and didn’t really positively impact any of the main fantasy baseball categories. Is there reason for optimism with the move to the Chicago Cubs? Well, for starters, he’s getting a sizable park upgrade compared to Petco Park. I’m not really counting Fenway, since he hardly played there (14 games). Hosmer still puts the bat on the ball, doesn’t strike out, and will help a strikeout-prone Cubs team when he’s in the lineup. However, while it’s a better home park, Hosmer hits a ton of ground balls, and he only has two seasons in the last eight years (2015, 2020) of his career with a launch angle above five degrees. He likely gets a good chunk of the starts to begin the year at first base, but he’s a rather boring fantasy asset. His batting average is above average, but his power is lackluster for the position, and he doesn’t run. He’s a fine late round flier, but if Hosmer struggles, the team could opt to use Patrick Wisdom at DH, and Matt Mervis as the primary 1B. |
1B | Wil Myers | SD | CIN | It’s hard not to like Myers heading to Great American Ball Park after spending most of his career in more pitcher friendly environments. Myers can make a lot of hard contact, and he has a barrel rate north of seven percent in each of the last seven seasons. He lofts the ball, and has plenty of power in that bat of his. He has 15+ home runs in three of his last four seasons, and with no major split disadvantages, he’ll be an everyday player in the best hitting park in all of Major League Baseball. As long as he doesn’t get the “Great American Ball Park bump”, he should be a nice cheap power option in fantasy baseball drafts. |
1B | Luke Voit | WSH | MIL | Voit’s deal is a minor league deal, but they are giving him a chance in spring training to join the big league club. Despite his waning batting average and increasing strikeout rate over the last two or so seasons, Voit has showcased impressive power at the big league level, hitting 20+ home runs in 2019, 2020, and 2022. In 2021, he had 11 home runs in 68 games, easily putting him on a 20+ home run pace. Milwaukee’s roster is pretty deep, so Voit has his work cut out for him, and even if he does break camp with the team, regular playing time will be far from guaranteed, as Rowdy Tellez will man first base on a regular basis, and the team’s DH spot figures to be a rotation headlined by Jesse Winker. |
1B | Yuli Gurriel | HOU | MIA | Albeit a minor league deal, Gurriel seems like a guy that will ultimately make the team and be a semi-regular presence in the Miami lineup. He spent all of his career in Houston prior to coming to Miami, primarily serving as a first baseman, though he did spend some time at third base early on in his career. The Marlins are going to give him reps at second and third base this spring, in the hopes that he can hit for a higher average like he did for most of his career, sans 2020 and 2022. Gurriel makes a ton of contact, and hardly strikes out, but last year’s 1.9 percent barrel rate is ugly, and he’s never been a Statcast darling by any means. Outside of NL-only leagues, Gurriel isn’t overly relevant to begin the season. |
2B | Jean Segura | PHI | MIA | When on the field, Segura was quite good for Philly in 2022, slashing .277/.336/.387 with 10 home runs and 13 stolen bases, his first time joining the 10/10 club since the 2019 season. Segura doesn’t make a boatload of hard contact, and he routinely hits the ball on the ground, so without being in Philly, I expect some home run regression for Segura in 2023. He does, however, make a lot of contact, and should be a steady presence in the top half of the Miami lineup. Segura should continue to post a .330+ OBP, which will help the other batters in that lineup. His new home park won’t play up his dwindling power, making this move better in reality than for fantasy purposes. Segura will need another 10+ SB season with a .275+ batting average to reward fantasy baseball managers. |
2B | Adam Frazier | SEA | BAL | Frazier may not be the flashiest name in this year’s MLB Free Agency class, but this is a very good deal by the Orioles. Baltimore has a team that looks ready to take the next step, banking on the development of some of its elite prospects. Prior to 2022, Frazier has been a guy that can hit for a solid average and even with last year’s abysmal .301 OBP, he still has a .336 OBP for his entire career. He’s incredibly versatile, as he appeared at five different positions for Seattle last season, and he’s still got some in the tank at just 31 years old. He’s really only had two bad years in his career from a batting average perspective, and one was the shortened 2020 campaign. Even in his two worst seasons from a batting average perspective, his xBA of .251 (2020) and .262 (2022) point to optimism. I’d expect a progression to the mean for Frazier in 2022, and while his overall stat line may be lackluster, he can be a steady presence at the bottom of the order, and turn the lineup over to the studs at the top of the order. Frazier won’t win with power by any means, but he makes a ton of contact, can get on base, provide defensive versatility, and be a veteran presence in this Baltimore lineup around all of the youngsters. |
2B | Tommy La Stella | SF | SEA | La Stella hasn’t been great for the Giants over last two years, and it’s been even worse for fantasy managers who were hoping to get some value from his after solid 2019 and 2020 campaigns. He makes more quantity of contact than quality, and last year’s two percent barrel rate was his lowest mark since 2018. The new shift rules just might help him, as his wOBA in 2020 and 2021 when he wasn’t shifted against were .404 and .324 respectively. He’ll occupy a super utility role for Seattle in 2023, but won’t provide much value for fantasy managers. |
2B | Aledmys Díaz | HOU | OAK | Fantasy baseball managers and the Oakland Athletics alike will covet Diaz’s versatility, as he should find ways to stay in the lineup on a daily basis for the team. Recency bias will take some of the shine off his season, because he found his groove in the summer months, hitting .293 with seven home runs and 10 doubles in 33 games between July and August. He hits righties better than lefties, but he can hold his own against southpaws, as he has a .245 average and 96 wRC+ against them for his career. When examining the top free agents at each position, I said that I wouldn’t be surprised if Diaz signed with a “lesser” team that would offer him the chance at a full time role to open the season. In a full time role, Diaz offers some pop, and could flirt with a .250+ batting average and 20+ homers over the course of a full season. His numbers from 2021 and 2022 over a full 162 game season come out to a line of .250/.302/.404 with 18 home runs, 58 runs scored, and 76 RBI. He could present a nice draft day value if his price stays cheap. |
2B | Josh Harrison | CWS | PHI | Harrison hasn’t been as useful for fantasy purposes in recent seasons as he was during his later years in Pittsburgh, but his profile hasn’t changed for the most part. He still hits for a reliable average, which largely fuels his OBP, but he’s lost pop, and the stolen bases were nonexistent for Harrison last season. In his age 35 season, he’ll be more useful for Philadelphia in reality than for us in fantasy. He’ll operate in a bench role, and his versatility will allow Philadelphia to have a backup infielder and outfielder with just one roster spot. |
3B | Brandon Drury | SD | LAA | This Angels lineup looks quite intriguing with the addition of Drury, assuming the version that the Angels get is more reminiscent of the Cincinnati Drury compared to the San Diego Drury. Drury was fueled a bit by the hitter’s haven that is Great American Ball Park, but there’s still plenty to be encouraged by. He posted a career best barrel rate last year, and maintained the elevated hard hit rate he posted in 2021. Albeit some regression hit him as the year went on, one thing Drury can do without fail is crush left-handed pitching. He posted a .299 average and a .955 OPS against southpaws last season. Angel Stadium plays much closer to Great American Ball Park for right-handed hitters compared to Petco Park, and with the talented lineup he’ll be a part of, there’s a lot to like for Drury heading into 2023. |
3B | Justin Turner | LA | BOS | I didn’t expect Turner to join any other team except the Dodgers if we’re being honest, however, that just wasn’t how the cookie crumbled! After nearly one decade with the Dodgers, Turner inked a two-year deal that includes an opt out after year one to join the Red Sox. With Rafael Devers at the hot corner, Turner figures to be the team’s primary DH, and be the backup first baseman to Triston Casas. The power output last year wasn’t ideal, but despite just the 13 home runs, he did manage to swat a career-best 36 doubles. His exit velocity dipped below 90 miles per hour for the first time since 2018, and his HR/FB rate dropped below 10 percent for just the second time in the past nine seasons. His whiffs were up, and he left the zone a bit more frequently, but Turner is still a solid hitter that gives Boston the impactful right-handed bat in the upper half it desperately needed. Outside of Trevor Story, Boston’s other right-handed bats are better suited in the bottom half of the lineup, so Turner fills a much needed void. He’s going to a good park (and decent division for that fact) for right-handed hitters, but fantasy managers will be hoping that the average stays solid, and the power returns in 2023. |
3B | Evan Longoria | SF | ARI | Longoria seemed destined to go to a contender, and he must see something with this Arizona squad. Sure, there’s a lot of young talent, and he figures to open the year as the regular designated hitter, but this Arizona team plays in a stacked division, and outside of an arm or two, there’s a lot of questions about this rotation. Regardless, the 37-year-old has enjoyed his past few years in San Francisco, posting a .252/.333/.466 slash line with 27 home runs and 88 RBI over 170 games. Longoria has been far better against southpaws over the past two years, hitting .318 against them in 2021, and .282 last season. Durability questions remain large with Longoria, and even when primarily operating on the small side of a platoon, he’s still made multiple trips to the injured list the past two years. He could be an interesting fantasy option, when healthy, in this lineup as a late round flier, but durability concerns and a potential switch to a platoon will likely relegate him to DFS notoriety only. |
3B | Jace Peterson | MIL | OAK | The Athletics are “ballin’ on a budget” as the kids say. This is a very affordable deal for a guy like Peterson, who has played nearly every position on the diamond throughout the course of his major league career. He’ll have plenty of chances to crack the Oakland lineup on a daily basis, and he isn’t getting any younger (turns 33 in May). With a full workload, he could be a guy that joins the 10/10 club, but a strikeout rate in the mid-to-upper 20s is going to humble his batting average. He’s only posted an xBA above .240 once in the past five seasons, and the deal he signed with Oakland seems like the plan for Peterson is let him play everyday, and then flip him at the deadline to a contender. He’ll give fantasy managers versatility in terms of where they want to slot him in the lineup, and while I think he has that 10/10 potential, but his home park will most certainly not play up his power whatsoever. Fantasy managers will likely draft him in the mid-to-late rounds, hoping for that cheap speed, and a little bit of pop. |
3B | Donovan Solano | CIN | MIN | Solano is what he is, in that he’s a guy that routinely hits for a decent average, provide slightly above-average defense and can play all around the infield. He’s hit .280 or better each of the last four years, and in 2022, he posted his highest hard hit rate (39.7%) since 2019. The right-handed hitting Solano has been as consistent as they come against lefties over the years, and he figures to work on the small-side of a platoon in the Minnesota infield in 2023. Outside of his batting average, he doesn’t do much to help fantasy managers, and when he does play, he’ll be stuck in the bottom half of the lineup. |
SS | Trea Turner | LA | PHI | Turner comes back to the East Coast and is reunited with Bryce Harper in Philadelphia. One year after the Phillies got a .234/.290/.352 slash line from the shortstop position with 16 home runs and 16 stolen bases, they go out and pay up for Turner, one of the best in the business (and in fantasy). Turner has hit at least .298 with 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases in each of the last two seasons, and he’s now in Philadelphia for the next decade. He’ll hit in the top third of another potent lineup, in another right-handed hitter friendly park. Turner is one of the best at his position, both in reality and in fantasy, and this could be the missing piece for a Philadelphia team that made the World Series this past season. Despite not having Harper for a good chunk of the 2022 season, Turner will find himself near the top of the order with guys like Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto and Nicholas Castellanos around him. This is a great landing spot for one of fantasy baseball’s superstars. |
SS | Xander Bogaerts | BOS | SD | Wait, I thought only the Nationals lost their homegrown superstars in free agency? What happened? Well, San Diego doesn’t play by those rules and signed Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280-million deal with a full no-trade clause and no opt-outs. He’s there for the long haul. For the last five years, he’s posted wOBAs of .363 or better each year and wRC+ marks between 129 and 141. He’s a spectacular hitter with a career .292 AVG and .356 OBP while averaging 17 homers a year over those nine full seasons. He’s an elite top half of the order hitter who can hurt pitchers in multiple ways who will likely slot into the 2-hole for the Padres starting nine. This signing locks in the Padres plan to move Fernando Tatis Jr. to left field while playing Ha-Seong Kim at second base in all likelihood. There shouldn’t be too much drop off in Bogaerts stats moving to San Diego from Boston as hitting homers over a 34’ wall is way tougher than any of the dimensions at Petco Park. Not to mention we get 11 years of him playing in Dodger Stadium and Coors Field nine times a year. The lineup behind him is at least the same if not better than what he had in peak years with Boston so the counting stats will be fine as well. We can’t read too much into the fact that he’s a .271 career hitter outside of Fenway because we’ve seen that just doesn’t hold weight for elite hitters like Bogaerts following free agent signings. |
SS | Dansby Swanson | ATL | CHI | The former first overall pick has come on in recent years. Despite whiffing a bit more compared to his early years, he’s posted a double-digit barrel rate in each of the past three years, and thanks to a 40+ percent fly ball rate in each of the past two years, we’ve seen Swanson develop in the power department. He has 52 home runs over the past two seasons, and specifically in 2022, he hit 14 of his 25 home runs at home, where he also hit .304. Swanson is only a .246 career hitter away from Atlanta’s home park, but he has slashed .307/.403/.452 in Wrigley Field for his career. Swanson is a great defensive shortstop, and while pessimists may put more stock into his offensive numbers pre-2021, there’s a lot to like about Swanson’s offensive game. Sure, he whiffs a good bit, has a strikeout rate in the mid-20s, and his overall contact rate has been below 73 percent in each of the past three seasons, but he makes a lot of hard contact when the bat finds the ball. Wrigley may not be the most friendly confines for a right-handed hitter, but don’t estimate the “windy” in the Windy City, and the amount of hard contact Swanson makes. Swanson’s bat plays in most parks, but we can’t deny that he’s going to a weaker supporting cast in Chicago than what he was accustomed to in Atlanta the past couple of seasons. |
SS | Carlos Correa | MIN | MIN | Correa has proven to be a very consistent hitter in his eight years in the majors to this point. His career average of .279 has been matched exactly in three seasons so far and if we exclude the shortened 2020 season, he’s hit between 20 and 26 homers six-of-seven seasons. The one year in Minnesota also proves that even when he’s based in a not-so-hitter-friendly park, he can still put up good offensive numbers. Despite the circus this offseason that was trying to sign Correa, it seems like he may finally have a home back in Minnesota, assuming his physical checks out, which has been the issue with the other teams that have attempted to sign Correa. When healthy, Correa is a proven offensive stud that will put up numbers in four of the five primary offensive categories, and a healthy Byron Buxton would go a long way for some of Correa's counting stats. |
SS | Elvis Andrus | CWS | CWS | Andrus started the 2022 season in Oakland, where aside from a .237 batting average, he was quite productive for fantasy purposes, hitting eight home runs and stealing seven bases in 106 games. He came over to Chicago to step in for the injured Tim Anderson, and he hit nine home runs and stole 11 bases in just 43 games, and his .271 average was more in line with his career norm. Andrus will slide over and play second base for the White Sox, meaning that within a month, Andrus will have SS and 2B eligibility and while he had quite the power resurgence last year, I wouldn’t bank on another 17-homer season from Andrus in his age-34 season. He’ll flirt with double-digit long balls while stealing 15+ bags, and his batting average should hover around .250. He’ll likely see an ADP rise with his signing, but he could make for a nice value if it doesn’t get too inflated. |
SS | Jose Iglesias | COL | MIA | Much like another recent signing for the Marlins (Yuli Gurriel), Iglesias is a contact hitter that provides ample quantity, but much less quality. Coming from Colorado, it’s quite a park downgrade for Iglesias, but overall, he doesn’t do enough for fantasy to warrant any consideration in drafts. He’ll be a solid defensive replacement if needed, and is quality depth, but fantasy managers can get more production elsewhere, even in the deepest of NL-only setups. |
LF | Andrew Benintendi | NYY | CWS | All in all, this is a nice deal for Benintendi, seeing as he traded power output for batting average last year, as his .304 batting average was the best of his career, but his five home runs were his lowest in a full season’s work. He even spent 33 games playing for the Yankees, and he hit just two home runs there while hitting just .254 with an elevated strikeout rate compared to his time in Kansas City prior to the trade. If Benintendi is going to scrape the power from his game, which I don’t think will fully happen, he’s going to be a quality asset for fantasy baseball managers in need of average/OBP, and a handful of stolen bases. Listen, it’s a good home park for left-handed hitters, and he should hit in the top of the order around the likes of Luis Robert Jr and Eloy Jimenez, which is good for those counting stats. Benintendi’s excellent plate discipline and contact metrics will likely fare better in reality than in fantasy, but there’s still a place for a guy that should hit .270 with 8-12 home runs and around 10 stolen bases. The 2017 and 2018 versions of Benintendi I think are rather distant in the rearview mirror, so be careful overpaying for him in fantasy baseball drafts. |
LF | Jurickson Profar | SD | COL | Profar has always been pretty solid for fantasy managers in OBP leagues, and now we all get to deal with the Coors Field bump that he is going to get. He has 15+ home runs in three of the past five seasons, and his pace in 2020 would have made it a fourth season if it weren’t for he COVID impacted year. He puts the bat on the ball, has a good feel for the strike zone, and should hit enough fly balls to be appealing in the friendly confines of Coors Field. Profar doesn’t make overwhelmingly hard contact, but last year was a career best for him in the hard hit rate department, and he’s expected to be the leadoff man for the team this year. He’s a near-lock for double-digit home runs, and maybe even post 8-10 swiped bags. |
LF | Michael Brantley | HOU | HOU | Brantley was limited to just 64 games last year, and in August, underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right (non-throwing) shoulder. Prior to the injury, Brantley was the same guy he’s been for the majority of his career, in terms of hitting for a good average, posting a quality OBP, and hovering around a contact rate of 90 percent. Simply put, Brantley puts the bat on the ball, and while Father Time eventually wins out, Brantley’s game isn’t predicated on anything that he can’t sustain for a few more seasons. I expect him to lose a bit power as the years go on, and especially in the early part of 2023 as he gets up to speed following shoulder surgery. It’s encouraging that his six percent barrel rate last year would have been his best in the past half-decade, and he did have 20 extra-base hits in just 64 games last season, even if only one-fourth of them were home runs. Brantley will stay in Houston, and hit in the top-third of a lineup that just might be better than last year’s World Series team. Scary thought, no? If you draft someone with a lot of power but not a lot of batting average/OBP early on in your fantasy baseball drafts, prioritize Brantley later on, seeing as he has hit .300 or better with a .360+ OBP in four of the last five seasons. |
LF | AJ Pollock | CWS | SEA | Pollock may not be the fantasy commodity he once was, but he can still put up relevant numbers, while being a DFS player’s delight when facing a southpaw. Pollock may have only hit .245 last year in 138 games for the White Sox, but he posted a .286 average, .935 OPS, and 161 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. As a team in 2022, the Mariners had the eighth-lowest batting average against southpaws, so at the very least, we know Pollock is going to be in the lineup against lefties. Given his durability issues, more AB’s at the DH spot likely preserves him for the long haul, but he may be forced into playing the outfield if Jarred Kelenic can’t take that step that Seattles desperately wants him to enjoy. With regular at-bats, Pollock could be a guy that hits .260+ with 12ish home runs and a couple of stolen bases. |
LF | Joey Gallo | LA | MIN | We had some fun during the season about how the Yankees trading Gallo caused a bit of a slump and the Dodgers to get hot, but it wasn’t part of Gallo’s play either way. To his credit, he’s been the same guy for his entire career, in that when he makes contact, the power output is solid, but he’s going to hover around the Mendoza line and his strikeout rate is in the mid-to-upper 30 percents. Yikes. Over the past three years, he’s hitting just .183 with a 36.3 percent strikeout rate, and outside of 2022, his exit velocities have looked solid. He still barrels up plenty a baseball, but it’s just not frequent enough to sustain any sort of fantasy value. He’s an extreme fly ball hitter, and the new shift rules could help play up his batting average a bit, seeing as he’s been shifted on in 90+ percent of his at-bats in each of the past four seasons. He’s getting a slight park upgrade by going to Target Field as a left-handed hitter, but Gallo is nothing more than a dart throw at cheap power in fantasy baseball, assuming he can stick in the lineup full-time against righties. |
LF | Corey Dickerson | STL | WSH | The Nationals desperately needed a little thump in the middle of the lineup, and on a good day, Dickerson can be just that. The power numbers have been disappointing the past two seasons, as his .404 SLG over the last two years is far below his career .481 mark. He has some significant splits, so Washington will likely need to protect him against southpaws, but he should hit in the middle third of the lineup, which could turn out to be a nice value selection on draft day if he can get his barrel rate closer to the 6-8 percent range. Despite a lack of pop in recent years, there’s some optimism that going to Washington will be better for him, seeing as he’s coming from the 29th ranked park for LHH to the ninth ranked park, per Baseball Savant. The Washington lineup is underwhelming to say the least, but if Dickerson’s price stays cheap, he could be a nice value selection in the later rounds, that should provide a quality ROI if his power returns. |
LF | Andrew McCutchen | MIL | PIT | It’s time to party like it’s from 2009 through 2017! After a few years away from Pittsburgh, McCutchen will head back to Pittsburgh, where he likely has an everyday role with the club in left field. While he may not be the high batting average guy he once was, he has 17+ home runs and 6+ stolen bases in each of the last two years. He didn’t display his usual prowess against southpaws last season, but he was a lefty killer the few seasons prior to 2022. McCutchen hits a good bit of ground balls, but nothing to be overly concerned with from a power perspective, especially given that his hard hit rates and exit velocity has stayed similar over the years. Given the dearth of quality bats throughout the Pittsburgh lineup, McCutchen should be locked into an everyday role, and put forth 15-20 home runs and a .245-.250 batting average. |
LF | Adam Duvall | ATL | BOS | After an incredibly productive year in 2021 that saw him hit a career high 38 home runs and drive in 113 runners, Duvall came back to Earth a bit in 2022, though his season was cut short by a wrist injury. However, even prior to the injury, Duvall hadn’t been producing much, highlighted yb a .213 batting average and .295 wOBA, both of which were his lowest marks since 2018. When his bat did find the ball, there was a lot of hard contact, as he posted a respectable 12.8 percent barrel rate and 52.1 percent fly ball rate. Boston is banking on a return to his power form, though he’ll always be a batting average liability. He has a hard time staying in the zone, and because of that, chased a lot, and made a lot of contact out of the strike zone. It’s a good offensive park and division for a fly ball machine like Duvall, and this Boston lineup needs all the thump it can get. |
LF | Tommy Pham | BOS | NYM | The Mets wanted a fourth outfielder and Tommy Pham is pretty good one all thing considered. He may not be great defensively or hit for a good average, but he’s got some thump in his bat, and he has 32 home runs and 22 stolen bases over the last two seasons. He has a career .842 OPS and 132 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, so the Mets would be wise to maximize his at-bats against southpaws. This is a good lineup to be a part of, but it seems like Pham will be on the small side of a platoon, which isn’t great for fantasy production in 2023. Should any of the regular Mets outfielders go down, or Pham hits his way into being a DH at times for the time, this move has more real-life impact than in fantasy circles. |
LF | David Peralta | TB | LA | While the overall numbers in 2022 may not be anything exceptional, Peralta has put a focus on lofting the ball, and last year’s 15.1 degree launch angle would far and away be the highest of his career. When pairing that with an 8.5 percent barrel rate, there’s some power optimism in 2023. His new home park is average for left-handed hitters, and he should play on the large side of any platoon, getting the majority of his at-bats against right-handers. He won’t play versus southpaws, so that’s something to keep in mind. |
CF | Aaron Judge | NYY | NYY | The sweepstakes for the 2022 AL MVP is over, and Judge will head back to New York on a massive $360M deal. Judge bet on himself prior to this season, and to say he's a massive winner is an understatement. His Statcast page is littered with red numbers, which is good, and who cares about the strikeouts and whiffs when you are literally in the game's best in every other category. Staying in New York is great for his fantasy value, as he has crushed it in Yankee Stadium for his career. While there may be some regression for Judge in 2022, he's still the best power asset in fantasy baseball, and fantasy baseball managers who draft him in the first round will hope that he runs at the same clip he did last year. Prior to his 16 stolen bases in 2022, he had just 24 stolen bases in his previous six seasons. Even if he only steals 10 bases this year, you're looking at a guy who has a 40+ homer floor with those 10 steals, and a well above average batting average. The Yankees did what they had to do to preserve the heart of its order, and now they just need another high-contact/high OBP guy to add to the lineup. |
CF | Brandon Nimmo | NYM | NYM | Nimmo parlayed a solid 2022 campaign into a big contract, and while I think it’s an overpay, one can rationalize what the Mets did based on what they see. Injuries have been a concern for Nimmo, seeing as he only has two seasons in his career (2018, 2022) where he played in at least 140 games. He posted the second-highest barrel rate of his career last year at seven percent, but if he wants to be a 20+ homer guy like he can be, there can’t be a repeat of 2022’s 50.5 percent ground ball rate. In years past, it was in the mid-to-upper 40s range. He made nice improvements last year in terms of his plate discipline, and with no major split disadvantages, he can be a stalwart in the Mets’ lineup for years to come, health willing of course. It was interesting that he only hit .234 at home last year, but that could be an outlier. Ultimately, the Mets secured an outfield spot for the next eight years, but this seems like a slight overpay for Nimmo heading into his 30-year-old season and as previously mentioned, he only has two seasons where he has played 140+ games. From a fantasy perspective, if Nimmo stays healthy in 2023, we could see some slight improvements compared to his 2022 numbers, especially if he trades some ground balls for liners and fly balls. He has the ability to hit 20+ home runs, but it won’t happen with a 50+ percent ground ball rate. We’d love to see the Mets add another impact bat, particularly in the bottom the third of the order, to help turn the lineup over to Nimmo. |
CF | Cody Bellinger | LA | CHI | Can he possibly be just three years removed from winning an NL MVP? The Dodgers have been trying desperately to fix his broken swing since then but to no avail. The Cubs think they might be able to and hence signed him to a one-year, $17.5-million deal. It’s a prove-it deal for a Gold Glove centerfielder who’s still just 26 years old. The Cubs need a lot of help before they’re competing and this isn’t really a move to have them compete in 2023. It’s more of a “hey if it works out, great, if not, we tried” type of deal. All of that being said, there are clips of him working on his swing this offseason and it looking far better, granted against batting practice pitches. The lefty stroke, when right, is tailor-made for Wrigley Field but there are big questions about if it’s going to be right or not. For much of 2023, Bellinger may resemble more of Jayson Heyward than anything else. There will always be fantasy baseball players hoping this is the year for Beli’s return but be more like the Cubs and make him prove it and you’ll be better off. |
RF | Mitch Haniger | SEA | SF | Is this the outfielder we all expected to go to San Fran? Well, maybe not the main one but this is still a great addition to the Giants’ lineup that desperately needed pop. Sure, last year was a down year for him not only in pop but average as well, though he only played in 51 games after being injured. The thing with Haniger though, is that he’s posted 150+ games played every other year with 26 or more homers in each of those same seasons including a 39-110-100 stat line in 2021. As for last year’s .246 AVG, his .293 BABIP and .319 wOBA suggest he was a better hitter than he got credit for. While the power might trail off a bit in San Fran given how that park plays, he should be an extra-base hit monster with the power alleys in play and thus his average, slugging, and run-production should still be good as long as he’s on the field. That’s long been the question with Haniger; health. Let’s also not downplay that every hitter for the last few years to go to San Fran has had a better year than expected and that’s likely in line for Haniger in 2022. |
RF | Brett Phillips | BAL | LAA | Brett Phillips hit 13 home runs and stole 14 bases in 119 games for the Rays in 2021, despite hitting .206. Outside of that season, he hasn’t done much to say the least. The strikeout rate has been out of this world over the last two seasons (40%) and he has just a .178 batting average and .264 OBP during that span. He’s not going to impact the Angels with the bat, but what he will bring is elite defense, and perhaps spell Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, or Hunter Renfroe in the late innings if desired. Over the last two years, he is tied for fifth in runs prevented and outs above average, and his arm strength has been in at least the 97th percentile in each of the last three seasons, per Baseball Savant. |
RF | Michael Conforto | NYM | SF | After seven years with the Mets, Conforto inked a deal with the Giants that includes an opt out after 2023 if he hits 350 plate appearances. Conforto is going to bet on himself a bit, with the hopes that the 2023 version of himself compares more closely to his 2017-2019 form. In those years, he hit for power and a respectable average, while being a slightly above average defender. He hit for a good average in 2020, but struggled in 2021 before missing all of the 2022 season. There are going to be plenty of questions about his shoulder, but when Conforto is at his best, he makes a lot of hard contact with a double-digit barrel rate. This isn’t a major park upgrade heading to San Fran, but there’s enough pop in that bat to make a difference for this lineup. From a fantasy perspective, there's definitely some risk, given the relative unknown(s) about his shoulder, but so long as he doesn't get too priced up, he could be a bat worth investing in. However, this comes with the understanding that he very well could start the year rather slow, seeing that his last at-bat in a major league game came on October 3, 2021. |
RF | Brian Anderson | MIA | MIL | After six years in Miami, Anderson inked a deal with Milwaukee, where he may have found a nice little home. He doesn’t carry immense pop, but he did 20 home runs back in 2019, and this is most certainly a park upgrade for the 29-year-old righty. He uses all parts of the field, and he is more endearing from a fantasy perspective for those who play in leagues that value OBP, thanks to never having a walk rate lower than 8.5 percent in his entire career. He has primarily played third base and outfield in his major league career, but he’s made a rare occasion at first, second, and shortstop as well, so Milwaukee should covet his versatility. If he performs in the spring, he could get an everyday role to start the season, though he, Brice Turang, and Luis Urias will be the primary candidates for second and third base, and the only corner outfield spot up for grabs would be right field, that’s if Milwaukee isn’t fully on board with Tyrone Taylor. |
OF | Masataka Yoshida | FA | BOS | First things first, we have to expect him to struggle a bit a times. Just look back at what we saw from Seiya Suzuki in Chicago a year ago. That being said, at his best he’s a very efficient hitter. In seven years in the NPB he combined for a slash line of .327/.421/.539 with a .960 OPS and just 300 strikeouts in 762 game (3,189 PA and 2,703 AB) with 421 walks. There’s not elite speed, just 21 steals in the seven seasons, but it’s enough to get a handful of steals a year in the majors. Everyone wants to focus on power so let's touch on that. He’s hit for 20 or more homers in four of the last five years in the NPB with the lone exception being 2020. All told he hit 133 home runs in the 762 games. If, and this is a big if and not a great way of extrapolating data, he can hold that pace, that works out to 28 home runs in a 162-game MLB season with four steals with his runs tallying 88 and 99 RBI. The runs probably stay about there while the RBI drop given that he’ll be the likely leadoff hitter for Boston rather than a middle-of-the-order bat like he was for the Orix Buffaloes. Yoshida is a left-handed hitter so the dimensions of Fenway Park as well as most of the rest of the AL East plays into his natural swing direction for power. The biggest adjustment he’ll need to make is getting used to the velocity and spin of MLB pitchers since pitchers stateside throw harder, on average, with more movement and spin than those in the NPB. His value in fantasy baseball of 2023 is that of an OF3 who can help with your average and/or on-base stats while providing 20 or so home runs. |
DH | J.D. Martinez | BOS | LA | The home runs may not have been there in 2022 for Martinez, but overall, his batted ball profile remained largely similar. His swinging strike rate was in line with year’s past, and he didn’t leave the zone anymore than normal either. His contact rate did drop overall to 71.8 percent, which was his lowest mark since 2017, and a reduction in his HR/FB rate to just 10.3 percent hurt the home run production for sure, because it surely wasn’t because of his fly ball total or barrel rate. Martinez continues to crush left-handed hitters, and he’ll now join a very hitter friendly park for a right-hander, and will see his name penciled in on the lineup card in or around the heart of the order. Martinez will join a talented lineup in Los Angeles, and the park should play up his power quite nicely. |
DH | Nelson Cruz | WSH | SD | The Padres add a certified thumper to its lineup in Cruz, as if this offense needed anymore firepower. Cruz is coming off his worst statistical year in quite some time, as he hit just .234 with a .337 SLG and 10 home runs across 124 games played. His .337 SLG was his lowest since he posted a .384 mark back in 2007 when he was with the Rangers! The veteran slugger did see his average exit velocity, launch angle, and barrel rate all take significant decreases, but the optimism is that his .337 SLG is quite low compared to his .399 xSLG. In 2023, we’d love to see his fly ball rate get closer to the mid-to-upper 40s, because another season with a sub-30 percent fly ball rate won’t do him any favors in his new home park that leans more favorable to pitchers than right-handed hitters. Cruz should play everyday against left-handers at the very least, but looking at the depth of the San Diego lineup, there’s no reason to think he couldn’t be the team’s everyday DH for the entire 2023 season. |
Player News
Bo Bichette, a free agent at season’s end, said the Blue Jays have yet to talk to him about a long-term deal.
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