Fantasy sometimes imitates life. Overpaying for a top reliever rarely works out in drafts or auctions, or for teams desperate to secure a high leverage performance. Just ask Colorado how things worked out with Wade Davis . However, if pushing the chips in, and the Chicago White Sox continue to raise the stakes in the American League Central, signing the top free agent closer on the market makes for an intriguing splash. Liam Hendriks agreed to a three-year contract with a team option for the fourth season.

This move shifts the roles of the White Sox bullpen and ensures Alex Colomé pitches elsewhere in 2021. After suffering some ups and downs as a reliever, Hendriks turned the corner in late 2018 adding velocity to his four-seam fastball and things clicked. In fact, since the start of 2019, his numbers versus his peers cannot be ignored:

In 2020, Hendriks finished second in saves among all relievers with 14 appearing in 24 games logging 25.1 innings with a robust 37:3 K:BB ratio, a 1.78 ERA, 1.90 SIERA and 0.67 WHIP. Despite only boasting a 32.6% ground ball rate, Hendriks thrived buoyed by a 40.2 strikeout percentage and minuscule 3.3 walk percentage. He generated a swinging strike percentage of 19 last season with a 65.7 contact percent, 74.6 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate and 38.1 O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percentage.

According to Statcast, Hendriks allowed 52 batted ball events yielding only two barrels (3.8 percent), a 90.2 MPH average exit velocity and 32.7 hard hit percentage. Remarkably, Hendriks’ underlying data in regards to contact in and out of the zone remained almost in line with his strong 2019 results. He proved to be a unicorn repeating the gains displayed despite skepticism weighing his price down last preseason.

Part of Hendriks’ success lies in his ability to use his fastball just over 70 percent of his pitches yet keep hitters off balance while limiting hard hits. As can be seen from the video, movement on the pitch fuels swings and misses, especially up in the zone:

Staying with the Statcast data, here's a pitch plot of all the swinging strikes produced by Hendriks over the course of last year:

Here's how a breakdown of his repertoire with some expected statistics along with strikeout indicators included:

  • Hendriks Four-seam Fastball: 70.8 percent usage, .245 xBA, .269 xwOBA, 30.1 whiff percentage, 30.4 put away percent, 32.8 K%
  • Hendriks Slider: 22.2 percent usage, .145 xBA, .058 xwOBA, 51.3 whiff percentage, 19% put away rate, 53.3 K%
  • Hendriks Curve: seven-percent usage, .118 xBA, .113 xwOBA, 60 percent whiff rate, 40 percent put away rate, 66.7 K%

All together his pitches generated a 36.2 whiff percentage which ranks him in the 92nd percentile against his peers. Hendriks also finished in the 98th percentile in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), strikeout percentage, walk percent and xERA.

Transitioning to Brooks Baseball to discern Hendriks swinging strike rate by pitch, it also helps to see which offering provides the most ground balls. This may be a key to his continued success moving to Chicago which rates a bit less forgiving on fly balls than Oakland. Once again by pitch:

  • Hendricks Four-seam Fastball: 19.2 SwStr%, 23.4 GB%
  • Hendricks Slider: 21.4 SwStr%, 36.4 GB%
  • Hendricks Curve: 23.7 SwStr%, 50 GB%

In an effort to expand his sample, Hendricks took over as the closer on June 21th of 2019 with the A's. From this point forward, he's notched the most saves (39) in the majors. During this time frame he owns a 1.99 ERA with 111 strikeouts against seven walks in 68 innings. Here are his other rankings in the majors during this interval:

  • Strikeouts - 1st
  • ERA - 6th
  • SIERA (1.87) - 1st
  • WHIP (0.79) - 2nd
  • BB% (2.7) - 1st
  • SwStr% (20.7) - 2nd

Staying with the template of our player profiles, Hendriks still shines through when perusing his numbers from the second half of 2019 through the end of last season:

  • Hendricks 2H 2019-through-2020: 4-5, 34 Saves, 58.2 IP, 96:7 K:BB, 2.30 ERA, 1.69 SIERA, 0.80 WHIP, 43.4 K%, 3.2 BB%, 40.3 K-BB%< 21 SwStr%

Unless an injury occurs or his arsenal crumbles, Hendriks remains a top target in fantasy for saves, especially in Chicago. Only two relievers recorded a save last year for the White Sox, a relatively stable bullpen though there's a new manager this season.

Projections usually reflect a pitcher's last three-year sample of data, so take them with a grain of salt when viewing his Steamer or ZiPS results. For our purposes, focus on the last two years with the added velocity and movement to his fastball while baking in some migration to the mean.

With this in mind, here's how his season may finish depending on how many innings he logs. Given a full season, he can reach 30 or more saves on a projected first place team with an ERA in his range of SIERA since June 21st (1.87) to his xERA (2.32) setting a sliding scale though it could climb closer to the 2.45 range. Hendriks' owns an impressive 14.5 strikeouts per nine in his last 68 inning sample along with a low walk rate. This protects his WHIP (0.85-to-0.95 range) with the chance to strike out close to 100 in 2021.

If Hendriks mixes in more curves, his ground ball rate may improve and more strikeouts could ensue. Pay for his second half of 2019 through the end of the season in 2020 results as a baseline but Hendriks could keep his value intact with a slight tweak to his pitch usage with more sliders and curves to generate more swinging strikes. Pretty, pretty good.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.ne