Arizona’s Christian Walker had a 2020 campaign that can be best described as taking one step forward, but two steps back. For every positive thing, there was a negative thing or two to counteract it. Overall, his season was fine, hitting seven round trippers, driving in 34 runners and slashing a respectable .271/.333/.459 across 57 games. He continued to make hard contact, and he made more contact overall, which helped cut into his strikeout rate. Walker didn’t run as much as he did in 2019, and a couple extra stolen bases can help his overall fantasy value and make him more attractive to fantasy owners. Let’s dive in and see what the 2021 season holds in store for the Arizona first baseman.
The biggest positive from his 2020 season was that he cut his strikeout rate to 20.6 percent. In 2018, he posted a 41.5 percent strikeout rate in 37 games. In 2019, that mark was at 25.7 percent, so it was a pretty sizable reduction in his overall strikeout rate. Despite his swinging strike rate increasing ever so slightly, you’ll see that 2020 was the third straight year that he increased his overall contact rate.
That was a positive development, or a positive continuation I should probably say for the 29-year-old that turns 30 on March 28th. On the other hand, his O-swing rate returned to more normal marks and added swings outside of the zone pushed his walk rate down a bit. Sure, it’s closer to his career mark, but replicating 2019’s mark would have been valuable for those that play in OBP setups.
Now, when Walker did make contact, the results were usually positive. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate came in the 77th and 89th percentile respectively, but his barrel rate took a massive downturn. His barrel rate of 13.1 percent in 2019 was exceptional, but his mark in 2020 of 6.4 percent is incredibly underwhelming. In 2019, his barrel rate was in the 90th percentile, and it dropped all the way to the 38th percentile in 2020.
2019 | 2020 |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
You can see in the heat maps from above that in 2019, Walker could and would barrel up anything. Especially in 2019, he could still barrel up balls on the outer-third of the plate. That was practically non-existent in 2020. He had success on balls in the middle or inside-third, but he was easily attacked on the outer-third.
A nice development in his 2020 campaign was that he hit lefties better. Sure, it might not have shown in the batting average, but he increased his ISO and slugging percentage against southpaws, all while striking out less. Also, in terms of expected batting average, you can see some encouraging things there, too. Personally, he dominated the inner-third of the plate, and his step back on the outer-third might not be as drastic as one would think.
2019 | 2020 |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
Walker stole eight bases back in 2019, but attempted to steal just two bases in 2020. If he runs more in 2021, that’s a huge boost to his fantasy value for an otherwise pedestrian profile for his position. Even if he can just get to five stolen bases, that would be huge. Otherwise, he’ll have to match his power numbers from 2019 and I’m not sold that he can do that again. His home run total will be closer to 25 than it is to 30.
Walker has some pop and I do think he’ll run a bit more. His batting average might take a step back, but it shouldn’t be large. I think fantasy managers would be happy with Walker if he posted a .260-.265 batting average with 25 home runs and five stolen bases. At the time of this writing, he’s the 22nd first baseman off the board, and the above numbers are more than respectable at that price point.
While he’s not someone I’m actively targeting, he’s not someone I’ve totally dismissed either. He had a slow start to the spring, and the seven strikeouts in his first 26 plate appearances isn’t encouraging for his strikeout rate. However, his three home runs are eye-catching and provide some optimism for a powerful 2021 campaign. Again, his home run total will be closer to 25 than to 30, so don’t let your imagination get out of hand!
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball