2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Zack Wheeler

After a few good years with the Mets, right-hander Zack Wheeler inked himself a nice deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. He looks to be one of their top two or three arms this year. Wheeler was good with the Mets, but nowhere near as good as he should have been. Selfishly, I was hoping he would go to Houston, as they would unleash his full potential, but he can be good with Philadelphia, despite a downgrade in his home park. Wheeler has thrown 180 or more innings in each of the past two years, winning double-digit games with a sub-4.00 ERA. Could this be “the year” for Wheeler? The potential is in there…

First off, Wheeler is actually a Statcast darling! Take a look at his marks from 2019, courtesy of Baseball Savant:

There’s a lot of red up there, which is good! He does a good job of avoiding hard contact, which could be a product of his arsenal. The opposition has a lot to deal with, considering that Wheeler throws six pitches, five of which he uses over 10 percent of the time!

Fun fact: Per Baseball Savant data, do you know what pitcher is most comparable to Wheeler? It’s Gerrit Cole . Wheeler won’t be anywhere near Cole’s numbers, but the principle is in the realm, and that’s the fact he could see an uptick in strikeouts and overall production.

Five of his pitches have a whiff rate over 23 percent, per Baseball Savant, and per Pitcher list, he has three pitches with a CSW above 25 percent. That’s a plus. With multiple plus pitches, Wheeler should be striking out more than a batter per inning, something that he’s only done once (2014). Last year, his 8.98 K/9 fell just below that mark, but he should be above 9.00 this year. I firmly believe that.

There was another interesting thing with his arsenal, and it comes not from his pitch usage, but actually how he throws the pitches. See for yourself:

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

It resulted in a slightly increased strikeout rate, and I think that should happen again this season. There’s a lot of talk about things increasing for Wheeler here in 2020, but one thing that should decrease is his home run rate. Last year’s 1.01 HR/9 mark was elevated compared to prior years, aside from an abbreviated 2017 campaign. While his HR/FB mark of 10.9 percent jumped from 2018, it’s right in line with other seasons. The outlier there was 2017, and his normal rate should remain similar most likely, considering that he’s moving to a better hitter’s park.

The jump in home runs makes sense. On fly balls last year, his HR/9 mark was 4.0, which was the second highest of his career, and he was unlucky, as seen by his career high .162 BABIP on fly balls.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

His ground ball rate has dropped each of the last three years, so hopefully this can rebound a bit. Especially in his new digs, more ground balls and fewer fly balls will be key to sustaining success.

Does Wheeler have immense upside? No. There is some upside there, especially as he should get more wins thanks to a more potent offense than he’s had backing him in recent seasons, but Wheeler is a consistent arm that will steady your rotation. He’s currently the 38^th pitcher off the board and to me, that screams value. The shortened season may drop him down a bit, considering his sizable amount of innings helped his cause, but an increased strikeout rate would help make him more appealing on a per inning basis.

Will Wheeler strikeout more than one batter per inning? Yes.

Will he win double-digit games? Yes.

Is he undervalued at his current average draft position (ADP) of 116.86 (P38)? Yes.

Wheeler isn’t the flashy play, and a lot of fantasy owners may push up Jesús Luzardo , Dinelson Lamet or Zac Gallen over Wheeler, but I’ve said it in other profiles, and I’ll say it again… There’s safety in security! Don’t overlook the obvious value we have with Wheeler here. He’s a quality arm that will steady your team’s rotation as your SP2 or SP3.

Also, for what it’s worth, his worst months of the season are March, April, May and June. For his career, he has a 4.39 ERA in the first half of the season, and a 2.90 ERA in the second half.

Perhaps we will jump right over those months and start right in Wheeler’s wheelhouse. Just a thought…

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
pitcherlist.com