Every season a few fantasy helium players emerge catching the fancy of prospective owners. One of this season’s candidates seems to be Zac Gallen. Traded by the Marlins as part of a continued rebuilding process, Gallen entered camp in Arizona vying for a spot in this year’s rotation. Gallen’s been a pitcher fantasy player long awaited on the heels of a pristine 112:17 K:BB mark at Triple-A in 2019 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over 91.1 innings.  

 

Gallen logged 15 starts in his rookie season with three wins of his nine decisions and 80 innings during his time in Arizona and Miami. Despite the robust hitting environment in Triple-A and the majors last year, Gallen held his own at both levels. In the majors, Gallen finished with a 2.81 ERA, 3.61 FIP and 1.23 WHIP striking out 96 against 36 walks. He generated a 12.8 swinging strike percentage and 35.3 O-Swing (outside the strike zone) rate, both above league average. Also, Gallen notched a 72.1 contact percent allowed and 84.7 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) putting him below league average in each category as well. 

 

Attempting to discern if Gallen can carry over his strong debut to this season will determine his baseline and ceiling. First, here is his arsenal courtesy of Gallen’s pitch plot on Statcast:

 

 

Armed with an above average change-up, Gallen also displayed an improved curve last year. When Gallen joined the Diamondbacks, he ramped up his curve usage helping his strikeout rate improve, especially for his change. Noting the usage percentages above, his swing and miss rates for each of his main four pitches add to his allure:

 

  • Four-seam fastball - 30 strikeout percentage, 23.7 whiff rate, 22.2 put away percent
  • Curve - 24.6 strikeout percentage, 32.8 whiff rate, 16.5 put away percent
  • Change - 35.1 strikeout percentage, 40.7 whiff rate, 23.3 put away percent
  • Cutter - 22.6 strikeout percentage, 27.4 whiff rate, 19.2 put away percent

 

For an idea on how Gallen accrues his swing and misses, here is his pitch chart illustrating them last season: 

 

 

Beneath his surface statistics Gallen record a .215 expected batting average, .293 expected weighted on-base average and 3.75 expected earned run average (xERA). He produced a 39.8 ground ball percentage, slightly below league average a 28.8 fly ball rate and 24.7 line-drive percent against. Avoiding hard hits keeps Gallen successful and if he can continue to garner strikeouts with his curve and change, all signs point up going forward. 

 

But, when perusing his projections, a growth season could ensue in 2020. Gallen’s average projection using five different systems comes out to:

 

  • Zac Gallen 2020 Aggregate Projection - 27 starts, 153 innings, 10 wins, 167 strikeouts, 3.96 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

 

Considering his numbers from last year with Gallen vying for a spot in the Arizona rotation, his projections still leave room for upside. Yet, his name value and finish to last year pushes his price up in most draft rooms. Add in he could be the fifth starter; his numbers could dip in regard to a counting statistic like strikeouts in a shortened season. Here is his projections in two different scenarios:

 

  • Gallen 108-game season projection - 18 starts, 103 innings, seven wins, 112 strikeouts
  • Gallen 81-game season projection - 13 starts, 74.1 innings, five wins, 81 strikeouts

 

Targeting Gallen for his talent and upside makes sense but avoid overpaying. Especially when pitchers like Lance Lynn , Julio Urías and Madison Bumgarner reside in the same tier as Gallen. It depends on the risk portfolio on a roster, taking a chance on Gallen makes sense, as long as it’s calculated. Especially if he undergoes some adjustments on the fly in his first full season in the majors. 

 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball