While most of the infield remains in flux for Tampa Bay, Willy Adames projects as the only player to log the biggest timeshare at shortstop in the year ahead. Last season, Adames appeared in 152 games with 69 runs, 20 home runs, 52 RBI, four stolen bases and a .254/.317/.418 slash line at 22 years old. Adames will not turn 24 until this September but needs to show progress with uber-prospect Wander Franco at his position for the Rays.

Delving into Adames splits from 2019, some intriguing trends emerge. He hit a robust .304/.376/.530 in 76 road games with 15 home runs. However, he struggled at home with a .204/.253/.304 line in 75 contests and only five home runs. Adames surged in September with a .317/.371/.540 slash line over his last 20 games with five doubles, three home runs and 10 RBI hitting safely in seven of his last eight. There’s room for growth with simple migration to the mean in home games along with improved numbers versus left-handed pitching. During his debut in 2017, Adames hit .256 against southpaws but only .181 last season.

According to Statcast, Adames recorded 382 batted ball events with 32 barrels (8.4-percent), an 87.8 MPH average exit velocity (up almost three MPH) and a 10-degree launch angle. Adames improved his zone contact percentage by 4.5 points to 81.7-percent while his swing and whiff rates held steady. Like most of baseball, Adames upped his hard hit percentage to a respectable 35.5-percent but also gained in sweet spot percent with a 36.1 mark. If Adames can improve his power, he will need to further reduce his 47.4 ground ball percentage. It’s interesting to note his gain in line drive rate by 6.8 points last year to a 26.2 rate but his power will be capped unless Adames can improve his launch angle or produce more fly balls. Here’s his spray chart from 2019:

Pull side ground balls will be something Adames needs to overcome. Hope lies in his ability to hit the ball well to the opposite field along with avoiding pitches low and away outside the strike zone. Adames expected statistics did not stray too far from his actual with a .249 expected batting average and .433 expected slugging. Any migration towards his expected slugging would be welcomed by his owners in fantasy. Here’s his zone profile from last year:

Perusing his projection sets from five sites, Adames aligns to carry over the power gains with some pullback and an average close to last year:

  • Willy Adames 2020 Aggregate Projection - 146 games, 70 runs, 18 home runs, 65 RBI, six stolen bases, .254 average

Due to this line, Adames slots as a middle infield option in 15-team formats more than 12-team mixed leagues. But hope lies in any improvement in offspeed pitches or southpaws. Plus, if Adames hits better at home, his average could improve to the .260 range. Even a shortened season could yield some growth for Adames but in any sort of truncated year, here’s how his projections would appear in different games played scenarios:

  • 120 games - 58 runs, 15 home runs, 53 RBI, five stolen bases
  • 100 games - 48 runs, 12 home runs, 45 RBI, four stolen bases
  • 80 games - 38 runs, 10 home runs, 36 RBI, three stolen bases

Fantasy owners will pay close attention to how the major leagues handle the upcoming season. Any sort of change like playing a majority of games in Arizona could be a boon to a player like Adames who surged in road contests last year. When spring training halted, Adames owned a .364 average (eight-for-22) with four walks and six runs in 12 games. If Adames can step forward in his discipline while holding the power gains from 2019, he could be a very under the radar post-hype candidate. Pay for his present projection set but profit lies in an improved average.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com