At a position bereft of talent, Willson Contreras could represent upside in 2020. He missed time with two different sprains last year (right hamstring and right foot) yet set career highs in home runs and runs scored in only 105 contests. Contreras slashed .272/.355/.533 with 57 runs, 24 home runs, 64 RBI and a stolen base in 409 plate appearances. He notched a 9.3 walk percentage, a 24.9 strikeout rate and a career best .261 isolated power. His home run per fly ball rate gets inflated due to the high amount of ground ball Contreras hits, but finished at 27.3 percent last year.

Contreras paid a small price in terms of plate discipline with his swinging strike percentage rising to 15.1 percent and his contact rate falling below 70 percent (69.7 to be exact). This also resulted in his zone contact to dip slightly as well. Perhaps Contreras made an effort to hit for more power upon his return from injuries, especially given the hitting environment last season.

According to Statcast, Contreras recorded 260 batted ball events with 30 barrels (11.5 percent), both career bests with an average exit velocity of 88.3 MPH and a 7.3 launch angle. If Contreras could move his launch angle into the double digits, it could unlock power potential for the catcher entering his power peak. His hard hit rate spiked to 41.5 percent in 2019 and his sweet spot percentage increased to 31.2 percent. Here’s his spray chart of all batted balls in play last year:

Unlike many of his peers, Contreras does not rely on pulling the ball for power. In fact, he’s at his best when hitting the ball with authority to right-center field when listening to broadcasts. It’s a mistake to ignore his splits given his hamstring injury in August hampered him as the season progressed. In the first half, Congtreras hit a robust .286/.381/.556 with 14 doubles, 18 home runs and a .270 isolated power over 302 plate appearances. After the break, he cratered to a .238/.280/.475 slash with only six home runs his last 107 plate appearances. This depresses his overall numbers making Contreras an intriguing target at his present price point.

Using his expected statistics, Contreras owned a .250 expected average, .475 expected slugging and a .415 expected weighted on-base average on contact. Again, if he could improve his launch angle, this could improve his counting statistics across the board. First, here’s his zone profile from 2019:

Building on the premise of even a slight boost in his launch angle, Contreras hit for a .407 average on line drives and a .732 average on fly balls last season. When he hit to the opposite field, Contreras owned a .403 isolated power. Pretty, pretty good.

Over the last three years, Contreras ranks fifth among catchers with at least 1,000 plate appearances in runs (159) and RBI (194). He’s fourth in home runs (56) and stolen bases (10) while his batting average sits at seventh (.266). With this in mind, here’s his projections:

  • Willson Contreras 2020 Steamer Projection - 98 games, 408 plate appearances, 50 runs, 16 home runs, 56 RBI, three stolen bases; .258/.342/.458
  • Willson Contreras 2020 ATC Projection - 123 games, 485 plate appearances, 60 runs, 21 home runs, 66 RBI, two stolen bases; .259/.342/.468
  • Willson Contreras 2020 THE BAT Projection - 105 games, 421 plate appearances, 56 runs, 17 home runs, 54 RBI, three stolen bases; .261/.342/.458

Although the baseball could be less “bouncy” in 2020, the second half swoon by Contreras depresses his projections and valuation in drafts. This creates a unique opportunity to get him at a discount when other catchers do not possess the ability to generate the counting statistics Contreras can. Yes, his 2018 remains in the mindset of fantasy owners, but if Contreras reaches the ATC counting statistics with an average closer to his last three-year rate, investing with confidence could pay dividends. Health remains an issue as does his propensity to produce ground balls. However, Contreras turns 28 in March and with 450-plus plate appearances, could turn in a career year.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty