2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Victor Robles

All the hype surrounding a young, toolsy outfielder in Washington paid off in 2019, as Victor Robles slashed .255/.326/.419 with 17 home runs, 28 stolen bases, and scored 86 runs in 155 games played. He posted a 2.5 WAR and .317 wOBA last year, and heading into 2020, Robles is a nice power-speed combo guy that could break the threshold and join the 20/20 club in, you guessed it, 2020! As a youngster in the minors, he gained notable pedigree for being a speed guy, but there was always that potential to increase his lackluster numbers in the power department. In 384 career minor league games he hit 28 home runs, and he already has 20 home runs in 189 games with the Washington Nationals. Robles was one of just five players in all of baseball to have at least 17 home runs and 28 stolen bases last year, but is he capable of jumping to 20/20, or even 25/25? Let’s take a look….

Robles is incredibly fast, as validated by his 95^th percentile sprint speed, per Baseball Savant, but there are some glaring issues with the bat. First off, he doesn’t make hard contact and some of his offensive statistics are amongst the worst in the league. See for yourself:

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

0^th!? Zero-th? Is that even right? 0^th? Yikes. His average exit velocity of 81 miles per hour puts him at the 0^th percentile last season. In fact, the next closest batter was Hanser Alberto , and he was nearly two miles per hour higher than Robles! Yikes. His xBA of .233 is over 20 points below his batting average for the season, so, it’s a good thing he’s fast!

Additionally, there might be a hole in his swing, or multiple holes. His 78.3 percent contact rate isn’t terrible, but his 10.5 SwStr% while chasing out of the zone less than one-third of the time is a bit odd. The graphic below shows some pretty high numbers, out of the zone and in the zone as well. It looks like pitchers are able to attack him on the outer-third, and it looks like breaking stuff low in the zone gives him fits. Take a look below, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

It certainly checks out, considering that he hit just .235 and .160 on breaking and offspeed pitches respectively last season. Fortunately, he’s just 22-years-old, and only turns 23 in May. There’s plenty of optimism surrounding him taking a step forward, especially offensively this year. The speed has always played, and will continue to play, but improving on some of his offensive metrics will help sustain last year’s power production, as well as enhancing it.

For the season as a whole, his soft contact and hard contact rates were nearly identical, and that’s not ideal. However, he made some better strides at the dish as the year went on. The most encouraging were the decreased strikeout rate, increased walk rate, and more hard contact rate.

His batting average was nearly 20 points higher in the second half compared to the first half. Sure, the power numbers were considerably down (just four homers in final 70 games), but he made harder contact, and line drives and ground balls allow his speed to fluster the defense. This is a big reason why more consistent hard contact for Robles will be key, because if he’s hitting fewer fly balls, he will need to make better contact more often so that when he does loft the ball, it can fly further. We don’t know how the baseballs are going to play this year, so this could hurt Robles as well, especially if his Statcast metrics, notably average exit velocity, don’t improve.

I said it before, and I’ll say it again. His speed will play, and it’s easily his best fantasy asset. He posted a 74 percent success rate on the base paths, and he was 28-for-37 last season. Washington will continue to let him run, regardless of where he hits in the order, so either he needs to run a bit more, or be a bit more successful to get to 35 for the year. Honestly, that would be best-case scenario, if Robles were to get to 35 steals in 2020.

Let’s get back to the lineup, however, for a second.

The path to move up in the order is in play for Robles. If the team bats Trea Turner third, like they are thinking about, Adam Eaton likely leads off, and Robles is an ideal two hitter. Will he hit in the two-hole to begin the year? Probably not. However, with Eaton being a lefty, there's no concern with leading off with three straight right-handers. The loss of Anthony Rendon will certainly hurt, especially with the accumulation of some counting statistics, but assuming this lineup is devoid of talent is incredibly false. I am all for Robles hitting second in this lineup, but it’s going to take some time for him to get there, especially after you take a look at his numbers in various lineup spots last season.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Robles is very young with plenty of room to grow, and could be a 20-20 guy this season if the power plays. He’s a great speed choice, but his batted profile must improve if he's going to get to 20 home runs. It’s going to be tough for Robles to be a power producer if his batted ball profile doesn’t improve and the baseball doesn’t act as jumpy or juiced as it was in 2019. While his launch angle is good enough, a 0^th percentile average exit velocity simply isn’t going to result in nearly 20 home runs on a yearly basis.

When looking at his numbers from last year, I’m fully confident in Robles matching or surpassing his stolen base total, but if you were to ask me if his batting average or home run total would increase from last season, I’d bet on the latter. His current average draft position of 65.94 places him in the sixth round, and that is certainly a bit inflated by his speed potential. At face value, his ADP is a bit too dependent on his home run total and his batting average enjoying a slight increase in 2020.

I want to invest in Robles here in 2020, but it’s a bit too risky at the current price for my blood.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball