2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Trea Turner

There’s a lot of hullabaloo going on around the Anthony Rendon -less Washington Nationals offense, particularly what to make about Trea Turner in the first round of fantasy drafts this season. There’s a lot of talent at the shortstop position in fantasy this season, and not to mention a lot of good options outside of the first handful of rounds. Turner might not offer the highest power or average upside, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a better option to bolster your team in the stolen base department than Turner. Furthermore, it’s not like he’s a complete liability in the other departments! He hit 19 home runs back in 2018, and he matched that total in 2019 in 143 fewer at-bats! He also rode a .348 BABIP to a .298 batting average, and while he doesn’t match that this year, he will have no lower than a .285 batting average in 2020. Turner is currently going at the end of the first round, but with more power options available at a similar price, including Trevor Story and Alex Bregman .

If it weren’t for an ill-timed injury last year, he was on pace for a monster fantasy campaign. In just 122 games, not to mention that number is 40 games fewer than the year before, he hit the same number of home runs, only scored seven fewer runs, stole eight fewer bases and his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage were up 27, nine and 81 points respectively. What could have been for Turner in 2019….

Turner definitely has the ability to hit 25 home runs in a season, no doubt. Last year, his fly ball rate stayed similar from the year before, but he enjoyed a nice bump in his HR/FB ratio last year. In 2018, his mark was at 11 percent, but it jumped to 14.2 percent last year. I think in 2020, he settles in at a happy medium, coming in around 12.5-13.0 percent, which over the course of 162 games (670 ABs) at a 33 percent fly ball rate puts him at a home run total in the low 20s. Add in a little upside and there is a path to 25 this season.

Additionally, take a look at some of his Statcast metrics and how they improved upon his 2018 campaign, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

I would be more concerned by a guy like Turner hitting fewer ground balls, especially with his speed, but he’s trading in ground balls for line drives, and his fly ball rate has stayed within one percentage point between 2017 and 2019. Meanwhile, his line drive rate has increased about six percentage points since two years ago, while his ground ball rate has dropped nearly five percent. More line drives will be key for Turner, and while his average exit velocity and barrel rate continues to rise, that bodes well for his power numbers. He’s making harder contact, and less soft contact, which certainly helps explain his ISO jumping to a solid .200 last season. The graphic below, courtesy of Baseball Savant, perfectly encapsulates Turner’s upward trajectory of exit velocity. Look at 2019, I mean, that’s gorgeous, for the most part, it’s trending in the right direction for the majority of the season, and consistently higher than years past.

Where Turner hits in the order is certainly a reason to potentially be concerned. However, I am not one to jump off the Turner bandwagon depending where he hits in the order. Obviously, hitting first or second would be great, because he will score plenty of runs and run a bunch, but there are some rumors swirling that he potentially hits third. Will he run as much hitting ahead of young star Juan Soto ? Maybe not, but Soto isn’t the next five hitters after him either, so it’s not as if Turner is going to see his stolen base numbers drop to 20! Turner may also not spend much time in the three hole, considering he’s only ever had one at-bat in that spot. Don’t overthink it with Turner.

Looking at Steamer projections, only one player (Adalberto Mondesi ) is projected for more stolen bases and do you know how many players are projected, per Steamer, to hit at least 22 home runs, steal 39 or more bases and hit at least .290? The answer is one. Turner. Keep that in mind. You can argue he’s not a five category star, but he’s certainly elite in the stolen base department, and he’s at the very least above average in the other categories.

For his career, on a 162 game average, he slashes .291/.348/.467 with 21 home runs, 112 runs scored and 53 stolen bases. I understand some of the concerns with Turner in the first round, but barring injury, this guy is a fantasy superstar in a category that lacks depth. Albeit a deep position, Turner is a great selection in the back end of the first round, as he’ll  be one of just a handful of guys to hit 20+ home runs, steal 40+ bases and hit at least .280 this season.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball