2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Stephen Strasburg

It was another productive year for Washington right-hander Stephen Strasburg . He won a career high 18 games while posting a 3.32 ERA and notching his sixth straight season with a K/9 above 10.00. He got himself a ring, too, which is nice, and including the postseason, he logged a career high 245.1 innings in 2019. If the season started on time, there would be more concern for a guy who has dealt with his fair share of arm injuries coming off an elongated season with an elevated workload. However, due to the Coronavirus, he’s gained some of that time back, which will help. Strasburg may not be the best pitcher in the game, as many thought he could become during his highly-touted prospect years, but he’s a great fantasy asset, and he is one of the elite producers on a per-inning basis.

Since the start of 2017, Strasburg ranks in the top ten amongst starters in strikeout rate. Additionally, he ranks inside the top 12 and 15 in ERA and soft contact created, respectively. His pitches have a gnarly amount of movement, allowing him to miss barrels and generate subpar contact. Additionally, it allows him to miss the sweet spot of the opposition’s bats, and for frame of reference, his mark of 29.8 percent last year was just the second time he’s been under 30 percent in the past five years.

Strasburg has some nasty stuff, and I truly mean nasty. There were three pitchers that had at least three pitches that registered a pitch value higher than 9.0 per Fangraphs. Jacob deGrom , Zack Greinke and Strasburg boast three above average offerings, and when you look just at qualified starters, per Fangraphs’ pitch value metric, Strasburg’s curveball and changeup came in at second- and seventh-best respectively.

It is worth noting that his repertoire is starting to shift. He’s losing juice on his fastball, and relying more and more on his elite curveball and filthy changeup. He threw his fastball at least 55 percent of the time every season from 2010-2016, but he was around 52 percent in 2017 and 2018, before stooping to his career low last year of 48.3 percent. Also, last year was the first time his average fastball velocity dipped below 94 miles per hour.

Fortunately for Strasburg, he does have those two excellent offerings to completement his fastball. Also, the shift in repertoire helped. He was able to generate more whiffs per swing on is fastball, and sure, the changeup and curve may have dropped a bit, but keep a mind that he’s now throwing them more, but those marks are still solid! Furthermore, he continues to post above-average rates in terms of inducing ground balls, especially with that changeup. Sheesh! The curveball dropped a bit in 2019, which is something to monitor, but all in all it was a productive year of whiffs, ground balls and weak contact against Strasburg which is key.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

He was able to create a launch angle of just 7.2 degrees last year, which is his lowest mark in the past five years, and it’s the second year, per Fangraphs, of his entire career where he posted a ground ball rate above 50 percent. It was a really, really good year for Strasburg and his fantasy owners. Can 2020 be the same? I do believe so. Honestly, the shortened season can help Strasburg. Yes, durability remains a factor, considering he threw 190 or less innings (including postseasons) in each of the four years prior to 2019, but it allows him to essentially operate on normal rest following a deep postseason run.

He was able to get batters to swing at pitches outside of the zone at a 37.2 percent clip, which was the highest of his career, as was his 13.4 percent swinging strike rate. Overall, his 29.8 percent strikeout rate wasn’t the highest of his career, but it was his best mark in the past three seasons, and encouraging nonetheless.

All in all, it comes down to durability with Stras. Can he do it again in 2020, in terms of elite performance and staying healthy? I believe so. I’m less concerned about a hangover from last season, considering he’s getting this extra time off because of the Coronavirus. On the other hand, something can pop up, as it has in the past, which is worrisome when the room for error has diminished considerably.

On a per-inning basis, he is elite and even with the team’s loss of Anthony Rendon , he has a good offense backing him. He’s going to cost you a second or third round pick, but he’s an arm I’m comfortable with headlining my rotation. Even with an ERA that might fall back closer to 3.50, I’ll take the strikeouts and the comfort of knowing exactly what I’m getting with my pick, health willing.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
brooksbaseball.net