Projecting a player never seems easy. Just when it seemed like the trade market for Starling Marte passed, he ends up in Arizona atop a much more potent lineup. However, Marte turned in career highs in home runs (23), RBI (82), runs (97), slugging percentage (.503) and on-base plus slugging (.845) last year. He logged 406 plate appearances batting third with a robust .319/.368/.543 slash, 18 home runs and 63 RBI. With the Diamondbacks, he’s slated to return to leadoff. This will adjust his outlook but his gains cannot be ignored.

Marte appeared in 132 games in 2019 with a .295/.342/.503 line and 25 stolen bases. He’s reached double digits in steals in each of the last eight seasons. Marte also became the second player in Pirates history with at least 100 home runs and 200 or more stolen bases in his career with the team (Barry Bonds). While racking up 23 home runs and 25 steals, Marte’s one of nine players in the majors to record at least 20 in each category and one of five in the National League.

With the uptick in power, Marte notched a career best .208 isolated power. According to Statcast, he registered 451 batted ball events with 37 barrels (8.2-percent), an 87.4 MPH average exit velocity and a 7.4-degree launch angle. His propensity to produce ground balls caps his power but fantasy owners target him for the 20-home run and stolen base potential. It’s a rarity in today’s game as evidenced above. Before checking into his expected numbers, here’s Marte’s spray chart of all batted balls courtesy of Statcast:

Although the expected rates do not necessarily guarantee a carry over effect, Marte owned the 11th-best expected batting average (.304) in the majors last season. His .511 expected slugging suggests his power growth did not seem fluky, but it’s not something to bank on either. He also finished with a .361 expected weighted on-base average and .406 expected weighted on-base average on contact. Here’s Marte’s zone profile from last season:

Putting up statistics does not cause worry when investing in Marte, it’s how many games will he accrue? His numbers over the last three years get depressed due to his suspension for performance enhancing drugs. Marte’s appeared in 354 games the last three seasons with 1,531 plate appearances, 226 runs, 50 home runs, 185 RBI, 79 stolen bases (sixth among qualified hitters) and a .284/.334/.458 slash line. Speed gets Marte hitting atop a lineup but he only walked in 5.2-percent of his plate appearances in this time frame with a 17.4-percent strikeout rate and .175 isolated power. Key in on his 63 doubles, 43 home runs and 58 steals the last two years.

Projection systems will take a look at the last three years along with recent trends to forecast for 2020. Check out his projections from two different sites:

  • Starling Marte 2020 Steamer Projection - 146 games, 649 plate appearances, 85 runs, 22 home runs, 81 RBI, 26 stolen bases; .287/.337/.468
  • Starling Marte 2020 ZiPS Projection - 139 games, 613 plate appearances, 88 runs, 21 home runs, 76 RBI, 27 stolen bases; .287/.336/.470

There’s not much discrepancy in his slash lines, so they should be stable. If one believes in his expected average, he could hit .290 or better in the year ahead. It’s much more likely he scores more runs than reaching his RBI projections, so adjust accordingly. Marte, with health, should hit at least 20 home runs, but do not expect a repeat of his 23 from last year and he could steal 30 bases if inclined. Arizona accepting him in a trade means his wrist passed a physical, so Marte enters the season healthy.

With stolen bases becoming a scarce commodity, Starling Marte will be taken in the late-second or early-third round in most drafts (12 teams or more). His stable skill set and ability to produce at least 20 home runs with 20 or more steals insure his appeal. Pay for 20 home runs, 28 steals and a .287-to-.290 average. Profit if he plays in 150 or more games.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen