2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Rougned Odor

What to do with Texas Rangers’ second baseman Rougned Odor ? What to do? That’s the question, for sure! He has 30 or more home runs in three or four years. That’s good. He’s scored at least 70 runs in each of the past four years and has two seasons with 88 or more RBI. That’s good. However, his strikeout rate jumped to 30.6-percent last season, and he’s hit .205 or worse in two of the past three seasons. Yikes. Additionally, despite having 30 or more home runs and double-digit stolen bases in 2017 and 2019, he was a -1.4 and 0.3 WAR player in those years respectively. Odor’s current average draft position is 224, per NFBC data. Does he represent value as a cheap power-speed option, or is he fool’s gold with a batting average that will drag your entire team down?

Odor’s paltry averages in 2017 and 2019 were a product of bad luck. His BABIP was way down, and per expected statistics, he was a .234 and .229 hitter those seasons. Sure, that batting average still stinks, but it’s a hell of a lot better than those ugly .204 and .205 marks. Additionally, his average exit velocity was up from prior years, and his 13.5-barrel rate was in the top eight-percent of the league, per Baseball Savant. That’s not indicative of a guy fighting to stay above the Mendoza line.

Hard contact is on the up and up, and xBA indicates he’s not a Mendoza line hitter. I expect his average to be closer to .225 this season, which is an improvement.

The interesting thing for me is how his strikeout rate skyrocketed to almost one-third of the time, yet he chased less out of the zone. See for yourself:

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Let me explain how to interpret the table above, in case there are any questions. In short, he swung at about one-third of pitches outside of the zone, lower than previous seasons. That’s about the best thing from the chart above. The diminishing Z-Contact rate means he’s making less contact on pitches he swings at within the strike zone, and the next column over illustrates that he’s making less contact overall. Despite his SwStr% remaining similar to recent years, the following table breaks it down by pitch type, and you can see that Odor posted career worsts against fastballs and breaking pitches.

Could some of these numbers slip a bit and help eat into that astronomical strikeout rate? Sure. I think that could be the case with fastballs and offspeed stuff, but breaking pitches, I’m less optimistic. Look at that blue line. It’s steadily increasing and not showing any signs of slowing down.

The good thing with Odor is that he should improve a bit upon these numbers. Even cutting into that strikeout rate by a couple of percentage points will help in the long run. Popular projection systems like Steamer and ATC have him in the 27-28 percent range, and if his BABIP is anywhere near his career mark of .274, he’s a .220 hitter at worst.

Odor is only 26 years old. Yes, I would have thought he was much older, but he’s the same age as me! He’s approaching the theoretical prime of his career, so there’s no reason he cannot contribute in the power and speed departments yet again in 2020. The below numbers may not apply this year, considering that it’s highly unlikely we get a full 162-game slate at this point, but it does showcase that Odor has been a quality dual-threat fantasy option.

Since the start of 2017, there have been nine players to average at least 26 home runs and 12 stolen bases per season.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Odor will, yet again, be a quality producer at his position in terms of power and speed, and his batting average in 2020 should be far more favorable than yester year. He comes at a nice value in drafts this year.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball