It’s a brave new world with Ronald Acuna Jr. threatening Mike Trout ’s hold on the first overall pick in fantasy entering 2020. Acuna Jr. played in 156 games last season with 127 runs, 41 home runs, 101 RBI, 37 stolen bases and a .280/.365/.518 slash line in 715 plate appearances. He loves hitting leadoff which caps his RBI total, but Acuna Jr. still drove in 78 batting first in 118 games. Suffice it to say, Acuna Jr.’s a stud.

Acuna Jr.’s one of five players to ever accrue at least 40 home runs with 37 stolen bases in a season. He tired down the stretch but lists a 40/40 season as a goal. Only four players in history own such a season with the last being Alfonso Soriano (46 home runs with 41 stolen bases in 2006). Acuna Jr. hopes to join Jose Canseco (1988), Barry Bonds (1996) and Alex Rodriguez (1998) in this exclusive club. Also, Acuna Jr.’s also the third player in major league history with 40 or more home runs prior to his 22nd birthday.

His dangerous combination of power and speed propels him to the first overall pick in many formats. Sprinkle in his age along with the decline in stolen bases across the fantasy landscape and the case can clearly be made to target Acuna Jr. as the top pick. However, it will come with some planning as the draft progresses. Acuna Jr.’s 26.3-percent strikeout rate needs to be assessed within a team’s batting average. Some insulation will need to be procured to protect this category. Taking Trout (last three years .302 average) or Yelich (.313 average last three seasons) gives an owner a leg up in batting average but it’s very possible Acuna Jr. wins the counting categories of runs, home runs (maybe) and stolen bases (definitely). It’s a simple question of preference on how to build a roster with a top-three selection.

Acuna Jr.’s plate discipline metrics really did not vary from 2018 to last year. He owned an 11.6-percent swinging strike rate, 74.2-percent contact rate, 26.7-percent O-Swing (outside the strike zone) rate and 80-percent contact rate in the strike zone (Z-Contact). His increase in walk rate to 10.6-percent helps despite the one-point growth in strikeout rate. Using Statcast, here’s Acuna Jr.’s swing and take profile. If he improves in the shadow of the strike zone, look out:

Transitioning to his batted ball data, Acuna Jr. ranked second in the majors with 66 barrels among his 439 batted ball events for a robust 15-percent barrel rate. His average exit velocity of 90.6 MPH and 14.2-degree launch angle should keep his power percolating. Another player not reliant on pulling the ball for power, check out his batted ball spray chart from 2019:

Generating a high number of barrels helps with expected statistics. Acuna Jr. finished with a .279 expected batting average, .572 slugging percentage (hints at future growth), a.368 weighted on-base average (plus-17 points versus actual) and a .495 expected weighted on-base average on contact. With this in mind, Acuna Jr.’s zone profile looks as such:

He pulled the ball in 38.5-percent of his batted ball data and hit to the opposite field in 28-percent of contact. In terms of stolen bases, Acuna Jr.’s sprint speed of 29.4 feet per second, and home plate to first base of 4.19 seconds places him in the 95th-percentile among his peers.

Taking all of this into account, how will systems project a 22-year-old on the precipice of stardom?

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. 2020 Steamer Projection - 150 games, 680 plate appearances, 37 home runs, 93 RBI, 29 stolen bases; .282/.363/.518

Without knowing how the baseballs used by the major leagues will fly in 2020, this seems a little light. However, it represents a tremendous baseline of numbers justifying Acuna Jr. as a top-three pick. Knowing owners will be targeting stolen bases early and often in drafts, it adds to Acuna Jr.’s appeal as the top overall selection if he reaches the fifth 40/40 season in history. It’s within the realm of outcomes. If Acuna Jr. migrates toward his expected slugging percentage of .572, then holy moly! There will be strikeouts, Acuna Jr. ranked second in the National League in the category but his elite talent along with counting stat production makes him worth the risk. Invest with confidence just plan on a .280-ish average with 100-plus runs and potential upside in home runs and stolen bases compared to his projection above.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com - Game Notes

Steamerprojections.com