Normally, fantasy owners wish power hitters would display more patience at the plate. However, could one benefit from less? Rhys Hoskins led the majors in pitches seen per plate appearance in 2019 with 4.56 and with 3,218 total pitches seen. Hoskins also led the National League in walks (116) and tied for fifth in games played. He finished with the Phillies first 25-plus home run with at least 115 walks season since 2004 when Bobby Abreu accomplished the feat.

So, what happened to Hoskins last year? After being pushed into the third round in many drafts, Hoskins disappointed with 29 home runs, 85 RBI and a .226/.364/.454 slash line. Since fantasy overreacts to surface statistics, Hoskins sets up to be a potential bargain for 2020. Beneath his cratered batting average and reduced slugging percentage, Hoskins held strong for on-base percentage league owners. Over the last two months, Hoskins hit a paltry .166 (32-for-193) with only six home runs. He averaged a home run every 32.17 at-bats in this time frame compared to a home run every 16.02 at-bats for his short career in the majors.

It’s splitting hairs, but with many pitchers trying to get ahead with first pitch fastballs, Hoskins may benefit from being less, patient. According to Statcast, Hoskins swung at the first pitch in only 18.3-percent of his plate appearances, almost ten percent below league average. There’s no discernible contrast in his plate discipline from 2019 compared to his 2018 season when Hoskins slashed a much more palatable .246/.354/.496 with 34 home runs. In fact, Hoskins proved to be a bit more aggressive with a slight increase in his swinging strike percentage and chase rates with minimal effect upon his contact percentage.

Hoskins aligns closely with Edwin Encarnación in his batted ball profile. Each displays patience with pull-side power and a propensity to generate fly balls. This sets up Hoskins to be hindered by a lower batting average than his peers, but there’s hope for a strong rebound in the season ahead. For starters, check out their career numbers in many key categories:

There’s no guarantee Hoskins can improve upon his average to the Encarnacion range, but a simple migration towards his .246 from 2018 would enhance his fantasy value. Not only could health provide a bounce back for Hoskins, using the center or opposite field could as well. Perusing his batted ball spray charts for his career, Hoskins hits most of his home runs to his pull side of left and left-center field. But, he does hit the ball decently to the opposite field in terms of exit velocity:

Like Rome, Hoskins won’t be built in a day. But, Hoskins enters his power peak in 2020 turning 27 in March. Already armed with the ability to produce fly balls and hit them well, could a run at 40 home runs be in the offing? Hoskins averaged an 89.7 MPH exit velocity according to Statcast data while the number jumps to 94 MPH on line drives and fly balls. He recorded 156 batted ball events with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater last year yet his power declined. Again, remember his struggles the last two months, which coincided with being hit in the hand by a pitch in mid-September.

At the end of July, Hoskins accrued 377 at-bats with 54 runs, 23 home runs, 68 RBI and a .257/.393/.520 slash line. Over the last two months, he slashed .166/.308/.326 with six home runs and 17 RBI. It will be up to fantasy owners to decide if they believe the real Hoskins lies within the first four months or if they buy into the struggles of the last two.

Steamer seems to split the difference with a forecast of 150 games, 547 at-bats, 99 runs, 36 home runs, 93 RBI, four stolen bases and a .242/.368/.498 line. Given his home runs above sit well within his career mark of one every 16 at-bats, it’s well within reach. A simple rebound in batting average to his career mark puts his average in the realm of possibilities and Hoskins hits in a favorable ballpark.

Before giving a final prediction, here’s Hoskins zone profiles from Statcast:

It’s an inexact science to predict batting average, but Hoskins will improve this year. His patience and power cannot be ignored. Given the discount afforded in drafts, it makes for the perfect time to invest. In fact, with slight improvements and a little luck, Hoskins could hit .250 with 40 or more home runs. Due to his low BABIP and fly ball lean, there will be some volatility in his career trajectory, but for 2020, Hoskins’ shares will be worth the wait in drafts. If one misses out on Matt Olson , target Hoskins for a similar profile two-to-three rounds later.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

Baseball-Reference.com

MLB.com