2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Ramon Laureano

It seems like the trendy “value” power/speed guy this year is going to be a 25-year-old outfielder in Oakland. Ramón Laureano hit five home runs with seven stolen bases in 48 games in 2018, but once he became a mainstay in the lineup in 2019, he was rather productive. In 123 games, he hit 24 home runs with 79 runs scored, 67 RBI and 13 stolen bases to go along with a .288/.340/.521 slash. He replicated his .288 average from the year prior, despite a 46 point drop in his BABIP. Laureano does offer some above-average qualities in the speed department, and he is solid in other categories as well. He’s not exactly cheap in drafts, as he will likely cost you a pick in the fifth through seventh rounds, but is it worth it? Let’s examine.

Despite a reduction in his barrel rate from 2018, a 9.7 percent rate is still quality. A stark increase in his launch angle (up 4.5 degrees from 2018) helped the power numbers and drive the ball into the alleys. Remaining above the league average for Laureano is key, because it will keep that home run total at a good spot, and he can help his slugging percentage by driving the ball into the gap and then running for days. When you see a rolling chart of his launch angle, it’s quite nice to see.

His exit velocity and hard hit rates aren’t anything to brag about, coming in at the 60^th and 58^th percentile respectively in 2019, but he used the opposite field a bit less in 2019, and delivered powerful impact to left and center field. On just fly balls and line drives in particular to left and center field, his numbers jumped in 2019.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

I really like the above table for his continued development. For guys that have the ability to leave the yard, you want to see them drive the ball more frequently into their power alleys. Using the other side of the field is still important, especially so pitchers don’t continuously attack you on the outer-third, but if you want Laureano to be a 20/20, or even 25/25 guy, it starts and continues with him driving and lofting the ball to left and center field.

One of the things from Laureano’s 2019 worth mentioning is that is walk rate decreased rather substantially, but he was able to eat into that strikeout rate. His strikeout rate dropped nearly three percentage points, which is good. On the other hand, I’m not too impressed with the walk rate falling to 5.6 percent, considering it was 9.1 percent in 2018, and his lowest mark at any stop in the minors was 6.7 percent in A-ball in 2015. He chased more, which attributed to his swing strike rate jumping from 11.6 percent up to 12.8 percent. For reference, however, he swung more in 2019 compared to 2018, in fact, over six percentage points more. He will need to stay in the zone, as this will help him be more valuable to those in leagues that value on-base percentage (OBP), because without a good walk rate, his OBP is tied solely to his batting average.

Speaking of his batting average, how was he able to hit for the same average as his 2018 season while enduring a rather sizable hit to his BABIP? Well, driving the ball certainly helps, but he made great strides against breaking pitches in 2019. He saw fewer fastballs in 2019, and saw a slider or curveball nearly four percent more often in 2019 from the previous season. Well, all he did was hit for a batting average 75 points higher, and his slugging percentage was through the roof!

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Batting average can be unreliable sure, so take a look at that average exit velocity against breaking pitches. That’s a nice little jump, and if he can replicate that again, or even improve upon it, pitchers will have an even harder time throwing to him.

Laureano has some pop in that bat of his, and his expected batting averages the past two years of .265 and .274 indicate that with some luck, his batting average shouldn’t get below that. While he is rather fast, line drives and fly balls will be key for him, especially as he paves the way for his first 25/25 season. He’s a crisp 20-for-23 on stolen base attempts since entering the league, and moving to the top of the order is enticing for fantasy owners. He will score plenty of runs with a powerful Oakland offense, and they should let him run.

In a shortened season, 2020 likely won’t be the year he goes 20/20 or 25/25, but he has the ability to provide slightly above average power numbers, and give you a nice boost in the stolen base department. There likely won’t be too many drafts where he falls below his current average draft position, especially given the dearth of stolen base options that don’t derail other aspects of your team, but the upside with the young outfielder is undeniable. I certainly wouldn’t count on him as your primary source of speed, but in a shortened season, if you need double-digit homers and stolen bases, while also being a sneaky good source of runs scored, look no further than Ramón Laureano .

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball