Despite leading the Reds in saves in each of the last three seasons, fantasy owners treat Raisel Iglesias with some skepticism. It seemed like he lost his grip on the closer role in 2019 but spoke up in interviews telling reporters he wanted the ball in the ninth inning. Iglesias recorded 34 saves with only three wins versus 12 losses over 67 innings last year with an 89:21 K:BB ratio, 4.16 ERA, 3.72 xFIP and 1.22 WHIP. Beneath the losses, Iglesias adjusted his arsenal while reaching a career best in strikeout percentage and repeated his 15.3-percent swinging strike rate from 2018.

Noting his change in pitches will be important when projecting him since Iglesias struggled at times. However, he surged in September with seven saves, a 1.69 ERA and impressive 15 strikeouts against one walk in 10.2 innings. Perhaps things clicked for Iglesias? He traded his sinker for a four-seam fastball. Iglesias upped his four-seam usage to 37.3-percent last season compared to 18.1-percent in the season prior. Here’s his pitch plot from 2019:

Parceling each pitch by effectiveness, Iglesias registered a strikeout rate of 32-percent with his four-seamer and a 27.9-percent whiff rate. His slider notched a .201 expected batting average with a 30.9-percent strikeout rate and 37.3-percent whiff rate. Although Iglesias reduced his changeup usage, it seemed effective with a .198 expected batting average, 40.6-percent strikeout rate and 44.1-percent whiff rate. With this in mind, here’s his swing and miss chart by pitch:

According to Statcast data, Iglesias allowed 167 batted ball events with an 87.2 MPH average exit velocity and 20.2-degree launch angle (up 6.4 degrees). Within these events, Iglesias yielded a 32.2-percent hard hit rate with a .221 expected batting average, .374 expected slugging percentage and a .281 expected weighted on-base average (26 points below his actual). While the launch angle could use some work, Iglesias fared well in his expected statistics while changing his repertoire:

If Iglesias can generate more swings and misses with some positive migration to the mean producing ground balls, his outlook improves. One thing owners can rely on with Iglesias, his ability to rack up innings. He appeared in consecutive days 20 times last year and logged nine outings in three straight days. Over the last four years Iglesias leads the majors with 30 saves requiring at least four outs.

In regards to his ground ball rates, Iglesias owned a 48-percent rate in 2015, but it’s fallen to 43-percent in 2017, 39.7-percent in 2018 and 31.1-percent last year. If the baseball’s less bouncy in 2020, this helps fly ball pitchers. Plus, a second season with the new pitch sequencing could unlock Iglesias for more success. It’s tough to ignore a month with 15 strikeouts against one walk in just under 11 innings. He also induced more contact under a barrel compared to fewer topped batted ball events. Pop-ups count as weak contact.

Assessing his 2020 will be tough but three different sites take a shot, note ZiPS does not include save totals:

  • Raisel Iglesias 2020 Steamer Projection - 3 - 3, 31 Saves, 65 IP, 78:23 K:BB, 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
  • Raisel Iglesias 2020 ATC Projection - 3 - 4, 31 Saves, 68 IP, 84:23 K:BB, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
  • Raisel Iglesias 2020 ZiPS Projection - 7 - 5, 65.1 IP, 80:22 K:BB, 3.58 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

With save totals in decline and bullpens morphing into committees, Raisel Iglesias makes for a perfect second-tier closer to target in 2020 drafts. There’s a chance he outperforms his ratio statistics and if he cuts his walk rates over a full season, there’s plenty of room for profit. Iglesias will never set a draft room abuzz when picked, but he’s a solid closer with a chance for a third straight 30-save season. Sometimes, solid can be just as valuable as sexy.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

MLB.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski