2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Nolan Arenado

In terms of first round selections, Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado is about as sure as they come. The star third baseman has played in 155 or more games in five straight seasons, hitting at least .287 with 37 home runs and 110 RBI in each of those seasons. He has three 40+ home run campaigns during that span, and he was three runs short of 100 runs in 2015, which would have given five straight of those seasons as well. Playing half of your games in Coors Field certainly helps, but the guy is a pure hitter. Sure, his batting average at home for his career is 59 points higher than on the road, but for now, he’s still a member of the Rockies, so it should be the status quo for Arenado in 2020.

Arenado doesn’t have the average exit velocity of an Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton , but he’s been incredibly consistent over the years in terms of his Statcast metrics.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

It seems like on a yearly basis, Arenado is going to hit at least 40 home runs, but he’s never cracked 42 home runs in his career. Could he get there in 2020? I believe so. Last year, his ground ball rate dropped a bit, which is good, and he hit more fly balls, which is always a good idea in Colorado. His HR/FB rate dropped from 2018, but it was still above his career mark. It also marked the second straight season he topped 42 percent in terms of hard contact, per Fangraphs. More fly balls with increased hard contact will lead to more home runs for Arenado in 2020 and beyond.

An interesting trend for Arenado that might go unnoticed is the fact that he’s swinging more, which has led him to chase outside of the zone a bit more. However, his SwStr% hasn’t vastly increased, so I believe we can forgive Arenado here. However, it would be a positive if he could get his O-Swing% below 35 percent, like he did each season from 2016-2018.

Everyone wants to knock Arenado in terms of a potential trade, and yes, his batting average would tumble, but the power still plays. Look at his home run breakdown in recent years at home compared to road games.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

The numbers are down a bit, sure, but it’s not like he would only be a 20 homer guy if he left Colorado. He’d still be a 30+ home run guy, no doubt. Is a trade inevitable? Probably, considering the relationship is likely damaged beyond repair at this point, but for the start of 2020, he’s a member of the Colorado Rockies and we need to plan as such.

There’s not much to nitpick with Arenado on a statistical level. You know what you’re going to get from the superstar third baseman, but where we can nitpick him is when making your first round pick.

He’s slipping to early second round in some drafts, because some folks rag on Arenado because he doesn’t give you any stolen bases. Sure, I get it, but Arenado is a four category contributor and gives your team a solid floor in four of the five major categories. Yes, he doesn’t steal any bases, but don’t let the dearth of production in that ONE category make you forget about the above average numbers you are going to get in the other FOUR categories.

Last year, Arenado was Cody Bellinger with a higher batting average and fewer stolen bases. These two were the only players to hit at least 40 home runs, score 100+ runs, drive in 100+ runs and hit at least .300. Stud.

Since the start of 2016, here are Arenado’s ranks in various categories:

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Arenado is at a deep position and doesn’t give you many stolen bases, but he’s a consistent fantasy option that plays half of his games in the game’s best park for hitters. If you want to pass on a .290+ average with 40+ home runs, 100+ runs and 100+ RBI solely because he doesn’t give you any stolen bases, go right ahead.

There’s safety in security, and Arenado is one of the most consistent options in fantasy baseball, as he’s been for the last handful of seasons.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com