Update: Noah Syndergaard will have Tommy John surgery and miss all of the 2019 season. Dang. What could have been for the righty in 2020....

In 2015, a flamethrower graced the mound for the New York Mets and became a beloved personality in the Big Apple. In 2016, he won 14 games, struck out 218 batters in 183.2 innings pitched and posted a 2.60 ERA. Noah Syndergaard since that magical year has had a rough go of things, as he’s dealt with injuries, primarily in 2017 and 2018, but he made 32 starts last year and logged a career-high 197.2 innings. His strikeout rate is down, overall, but it was up from last year. Syndergaard may not be the electric fantasy ace he once was, but that doesn’t mean he is fantasy irrelevant by any means. He still has that ace potential in him, but he can be a very reliable SP2 for your team, health willing.

Syndergaard had the propensity to limit the long ball, but last year, his 1.09 HR/9 mark was the second-highest mark of his career. Why was that? Well, here are a few reasons….

  • Hard contact rate of 28.9 percent last year was considerably up from 2018 and was highest of career, if you remove injury shortened 2017 campaign.
  • He allowed a fly ball rate of 32.1 percent, which was his highest mark since 2015.
  • Building off the factoid above, Thor’s 1.49 GB/FB mark was second lowest in his career.
  • Average launch angle was 9.3 degrees, which is the second highest of Syndergaard’s career.
  • Opponents barreled up Syndergaard 4.9 percent of the time, which is the second-highest mark of Syndergaard’s career.

It was kind of a “perfect storm” of things for Syndergaard for the home runs to jump like they did. Well, I guess not perfect for him, but you get the point. Furthermore, Syndergaard allowed a 75.1 percent contact rate last year, which was the highest of his career. It’s still decent, all things considered, but he’s typically not up that high, as he tends to be closer to 72 percent.  Additionally, he’s generating fewer whiffs. His 12.5 SwStr% rate last season was the second-lowest of his career.

Although it’s pretty obvious the chart below documents the correlation between the harder contact, less whiffs and his ERA.

His FIP and xFIP indicate that his ERA should have been lower, and his xBA of .234 was quite lower than his actual batting average against (.252). So, that’s encouraging. Another thing that’s encouraging is if Syndergaard can add some wrinkles into his pitch usage in 2020, I think we could see an uptick in whiffs and give opposing batters fits.

Syndergaard currently has four pitches he throws at least 15 percent of the time, and he almost has a true five pitch arsenal, as his curveball was used just 9.5 percent of the time last year. However, his two lesser used pitches, his slider and curveball, are deadly. Last year, opponents hit just .203 against his slider, and .188 against his curve, with expected batting averages of .152 and .170 respectively. In 2018, both pitches had expected batting averages below .217. Furthermore, in terms of whiff percentage, his slider and his curveball have been above 39 percent each of the past two seasons. He utilized the slider less last year, compared to 2018.

Mixing in that curveball and slider a bit more should behoove Syndergaard in 2020, giving himself extra ammo to make that push to SP1 territory. Let’s hope that happens!

A HR/FB rate of 13.3 percent did Syndergaard in last year. That mark should return closer to his career average (10.9%) in 2020, and when you look at some Statcast metrics, it’s not indicative of a pitcher with a HR/9 above 1.00. He posted the 15th lowest average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives in 2019, per Baseball Savant. That home run rate is coming down, and that should help his ERA push closer to the mid-3s.

Syndergaard is currently the 24th pitcher (23rd starter) off the board, putting him in the back half of that SP2 tier. Personally, at pick 72, I love the value on Syndergaard. Popular projection systems like him to come in with an ERA in the mid-to-high 3s, and health willing, push for 200+ strikeouts yet again. That’s right about where I have him, but he still has that top 10 or 12 upside in that electric right arm of his.

A little better luck in 2020, and maybe increased usage of his slider and curve provide a pathway to at least a top 15 season for Syndergaard this year. Regardless, he will easily outperform his draft day value.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball