2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Nick Solak

Nick Solak was looking like he had a path to more regular playing time, but it now appears that the likelihood of that scenario might be dissipating. I was all aboard getting numerous shares of Solak, because not only was he going to get regular playing time and become a multi-positional asset in fantasy, but he had a rather intriguing skill set. It appears that the team is ready to use Danny Santana as the team’s regular center fielder, although, the silver lining of it all is that the team’s manager is comfortable with Solak in center field. So, a few weeks ago, I was confident Solak would be a regular player for the Rangers, but now it appears that he’s destined for a super utility role to begin the year, barring any injuries before the season. Cue the violins. Sad, sad day.

[Editor’s Note: With the recent injury to Willie Calhoun , it would appear the path to regular playing time has opened again for Solak. He is likely to play left field to begin the season.]

Last year, Solak was a guy that attracted some sizable bets in FAAB formats, given that he could come up and provide some fantasy owners with some power, hit for a solid average and mix in some stolen bases. At the Double-A level in 2018, he hit .282 with 19 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 126 games. In 115 games at the Triple-A level in 2019 (85 with TB, 30 with TEX), he hit 27 home runs with five stolen bases and a .289 average.

Well, it didn’t quite work out for the long-term. He provided some pop, mixed in a couple stolen bases and hit .293, but logged just 135 plate appearances. Solak is a guy that has some sleeper potential in fantasy baseball this season, but Texas’ shift in expected roles for Solak and Santana certainly takes away some time from Solak.

Let’s talk about Solak’s speed for a minute, because that is the extra piece that took his fantasy value to the next level. Popular projection systems like THE BAT, ATC and Steamer have him for anywhere from five to six stolen bases this season. Could he run more at the big league level? Absolutely. Will he get the chance? That’s the question. Last year, his sprint speed came in at the 89^th percentile, per Baseball Savant, and in 241 games at the minor league level, he was 27-for-36 (75%) on the base paths. Not too shabby. I firmly believe with regular playing time this season, which might not come right at the beginning of the year. Hopefully, with time, my friends…

Solak has an intriguing hit tool, to say the least. Last year, he posted a respectable 79.7 percent contact rate, and it’s hard not to be encouraged by his 26.3 percent O-Swing% and 8.5 SwStr% rate. Don’t look into it too much, but Austin Meadows and Cody Bellinger had similar rates. Comparisons are fun!

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Solak’s barrel rate is solid (9.2%), per Baseball Savant, but his launch angle of 6.3 degrees isn’t the greatest by any means. Five home runs in 33 games last year with a 6.3 degree launch angle isn’t ideal, however, give Solak credit, because his fly ball rate has always been below 32 percent, and his mark of 27.6 percent with Texas last year isn’t far off. It could be hit-or-miss, but in 2020, we need an increase in that launch angle, and hopefully he doesn’t replicate his 1.92 GB/FB ratio from last year.

Another silver lining here with the factoids from the paragraph above is that his batted ball profile, per the data at Baseball Savant, most closely compares him to San Diego’s Tommy Pham and Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds . Those two had 21 and 16 home runs respectively last year. Solak will need to get ample plate appearances to allow the home runs to rack up.

Take a look at his average draft position (ADP), using NFBC data, by month. We can see his ADP is increasing, making him available later in drafts.

Courtesy of NFBC ADP Data

Diving into the numbers, you can see that Solak is an intriguing fantasy option, which pushed him up boards a bit in December, but then it started trending down in January. In February and March, it was discussed that perhaps he operates in more of a super utility role, compared to operating as an everyday player. Also, hitting just .172 with one home run and one stolen base through the first 11 spring training games certainly hasn’t helped.

I’m still holding out hope that he pushes himself into a more regular role, because the ability to hit 15 home runs and steal close to 10 bases is appealing, especially as he falls closer and closer to pick 300 in drafts.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball