2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Miguel Andujar

Coming into the 2020 season, Miguel Andújar was a potent bat for the Bronx Bombers, but without a real bonafide position. He’s a liability with the glove, and that might even be an understatement. He’s been working in the outfield, essentially to increase his chances of finding the field with more regularity in 2020 than anticipated. He was limited to just 12 games in 2019 before ultimately deciding to go under the knife to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. He tried the rehab approach, but it didn’t work, leaving surgery as the final course of action. He’s recovered, and ready to make an impact for the Bronx Bombers in 2020, that’s if he can find the field.

Let’s go back to 2018, which is the last time we saw Andujar on a regular basis for the Yankees. Man, oh man, was he good.  That year, he slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 92 RBI. His 89.2 average exit velocity is okay, but when you play in Yankee stadium, you don’t need a super high mark to leave the yard. His 12.3 degree launch angle is a bit lower than some might think, so fingers crossed that he eats into the 44 percent ground ball rate from 2018. The closer he can get his GB/FB ratio to an even 1.00, the better for fantasy owners. He makes hard contact, and frequent contact actually (81.9% in 2018), but he needs to stay in the zone more. His 39.4 percent O-Swing% in 2018 is not good. He chased a lot, there’s just no other way to say it.

Andujar struck out just 16 percent of the time in 2018, but if he doesn’t stay in the zone more, I have a hard time believing that he matches that mark again. It’s already had an effect on his walk rate. In 2018, he walked just 4.1 percent of the time, and in an injury-shortened 2019 campaign, he walked just two percent of the time, and the strikeout rate skyrocketed to 22.4 percent. This could weigh heavily on his batting average, too.

I expect pitchers to pitch Andujar a bit more differently here in 2020 as well. Let’s compare the pitch usage heat map from 2018 and 2019.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

On the left, we have 2018, and on the right, we have 2019. Yes, 2019 featured fewer games, but you can see the trend developing. Attack Andujar middle away and down in the strike zone. Take advantage of his aggressiveness and get him to go outside of the strike zone. It’s pretty obvious that is going to be the plan, especially against Andujar. Most pitchers want to attack low and away anyways, but it’s imperative to success against Andujar. Why? Well, pretty easy.

Andujar is a pull-heavy hitter, as seen by his 47.5 percent and 51.4 percent pull rates from 2018 and 2019 respectively. It would be great if he would use right field a bit more, considering his home park has one of the friendliest right fields in all of baseball!

There’s another reason to attack Andujar in that sector of the zone. For lefties, they can run their changeup to that part of the zone, righties can utilize either breaking stuff to run from Andujar, or throw a splitter there to give him fits. Andujar was actually solid against breaking pitches, but non-breaking offspeed pitches gave him fits in particular.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Pitchers saw it, too. For 2018 alone, look at how as the season went on, the fastballs went down, and more offspeed pitches were being thrown. They are onto something.

Baseball Savant categorizes offspeed offerings as changeups and splitters, and in 2018, Andujar hit just .250 on these offerings, and a measly .083 in 2019. That .250 average is rather fluky, considering his xBA was just .195.

One last thing on Andujar from years past before jumping into the 2020 outlook, I promise. If it weren’t for a late season power binge, Andujar’s 2018 season would have been “fine.” He had 14 home runs over the final 55 games of the season, after having just 13 round trippers through the first 94 games of the season. To put into a different context…

Courtesy of Fangraphs

In other words, over the course of a full 162 game season and 600 at-bats, it’s a difference of being a guy with 22.6 home runs or 35.5 home runs!

Now, let’s get to 2020. As of about three weeks ago, Andujar’s playing time was muddled. Given a few recent events, playing time could potentially be open at least in the beginning of the year. Aaron Judge is going to miss some time, as is Giancarlo Stanton . So, there are now two outfield spots open, and a designated hitter spot. Andujar has a good enough bat to fill the void, but he’s a complete liability on defense. As long as some of those guys are on the shelf, the path to playing time is much clearer for Andujar.

Due to these injuries, his average draft position is going to push up a bit, but be cautious buying into things. His herculean pace at the end of 2018 inflated some of his numbers, and Judge and Stanton are going to come back at some point, muddling the playing time picture again for Andujar.

Tread with caution here. This is a .270-.280 guy with 20-ish home runs, but with a lack of playing time, you’re taking a flier with this guy. Although, you could do worse, considering the Yankees’ problem with injuries on what seems like a yearly basis.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com