Usually more excitement surrounds a player on the verge of his Age-27 season, but Michael Conforto seems to fly beneath the radar. A concussion cost Conforto time in the middle of May but he appeared in 151 contests last year with 90 runs, 33 home runs, 92 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .257/.363/.494 slash line. Conforto recorded career highs in runs, home runs, RBI, hits (141) and doubles (29) in 2019 with little fanfare. 

He kept his walk percentage in line with the two previous seasons at 13 percent but decreased his strikeout rate for the second straight year. A spike in isolated power to .237 combined with the power spike built a solid foundation for Conforto. His aggression at the plate rose a bit with an 11.2 swinging strike percentage but not an incremental increase in his O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percent. 

According to Statcast, Conforto registered 405 batted ball events with 48 barrels (11.9 percent), an 88.8 MPH average exit velocity and 15.7-degree launch angle. Conforto’s sweet spot percent of 36 and hard-hit rate of 39.3 percent support his rise in home runs last year. Another bonus, Conforto decreased his ground ball percentage to 35.3, his lowest percentage in the last five seasons while upping his fly ball rate to 29.6 and line drives to 28.4 percent. Here is his spray chart as an illustration: 

Beneath the numbers, Conforto incurred a bit of bad luck last season with a .262 expected batting average, .504 expected slugging and .367 expected weighted on-base average (nine points above his actual). Conforto raised his zone swing percentage to 70.3 from 64.5 percent the season prior. His swing percentage rose slightly but Conforto’s whiff percent remained steady. Armed with improved discipline entering his power peak could make Conforto an intriguing target. Check out his zone profile courtesy of Statcast: 

Over the last three years, Conforto’s played in 413 games with 240 runs, 88 home runs, 242 RBI, 12 stolen bases and a .257/.363/.492 line over 1,465 at-bats. Not shown, Conforto’s second half surge during which his slash rose to .271/.366/.519 with 17 home runs and 48 RBI his last 262 at-bats. It remains to be seen if Conforto can translate this into a full year of production but what if it carries over in 2020? 

Conforto’s average projection relies on his last three years and the injury issues as seen in his games played for a full season: 

  • Michael Conforto 2020 Aggregate Projection - 137 games, 78 runs, 30 home runs, 85 RBI, five stolen bases, .255 average

It’s a projection set’s job to rely on past results and pending regression yet it overlooks his second half breakout. Conforto hit .279 during his 109-game sample in 2017 so it’s possible he could raise his average in the season ahead. Due to the chance a shortened schedule happens, here’s how his numbers above would look in two different scenarios: 

  • Conforto 108-game projection - 61 runs, 24 home runs, 67 RBI, four stolen bases
  • Conforto 81-game projection - 46 runs, 18 home runs, 50 RBI, three stolen bases

Endorsing Conforto comes with no guarantees. However, getting an Age-27 player with power pedigree and a chance he improves his average at a reduced price point makes sense. Even if he hits .270, Conforto should provide profit with 30-plus home run power and more counting statistics than his projection suggests. Target with confidence and hope his health holds up. In the event it does, a career year lies in the offing. 

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Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com