2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Matt Chapman

Oakland Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman continues his ascension among the best players at his position. In 2019 he hit more home runs than the year prior, as well as scored more runs, drove in more runners and he would hit have hit for a better average if it weren’t for some unfortunate luck. Chapman made some important strides at the dish, and that should parlay into even more success in 2020. Chapman is already one of the elite defenders at his position, if not the best, and if you want to harp on his .249 batting average from last year, you’re doing yourself a disservice heading into 2020 draft season.

Amongst qualifying third baseman, here’s what Chapman ranked last season.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

The BABIP from last year was alarming, but he should rebound in 2020, which will help push his batting average back up to a much more respectable mark than last year’s .249. He was unlucky, sure, but there has to be a reason, like….

He must have made less hard contact. False. His hard contact rate was two percent higher and his soft contact rate was slightly down.

He must have struck out more. False. His strikeout rate was down nearly two percent. He also walked more than the year before.

He barreled up fewer balls then. False. His barrel rate was substantially higher.

His xBA is probably in line with his .249 batting average. Close. It was at .255, so maybe he wasn’t as unlucky as we think. However, it’s odd that his BABIP tumbled that much. There should be an improvement there, and he should be a .265-.270 hitter in 2020, without a doubt.

One thing to note, and actually, it does explain why his BABIP, and in turn, his batting average took a tumble last year. In 2018, he hit .302 on ground balls. Last year, it was down to .264. He’s not fast enough to maintain that high of an average on ground balls, and not every grounder is going to find a hole. That does explain a sizable decrease in batting average, considering everything was rather similar.

While the strikeout rate did decline, he did whiff a little more, and also left the zone with a bit more frequency. Take a look for yourself, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

Chapman will need to stay within the zone, and hopefully cut down on some of the whiffs. However, if a few extra swings-and-misses come early in the count and the strikeout rate is comparable to 2020, fantasy owners can live with it. Also, fingers crossed that the walk rate can match 2019, and maybe even increase a bit!

As we enter draft season, Chapman offers nice power at the position, but in the current fantasy landscape, the dearth of stolen bases tanks his fantasy value a bit. Honestly, Chapman is Manny Machado with less speed and a lower batting average. Using some projection systems, let’s take a look at Chapman’s anticipated numbers for 2020, via ATC, Depth Charts and Steamer.

Chapman can get to 40 home runs and .260 batting average in 2020, even in the spacious confines of his home park, but in fantasy circles, there are quite a few guys who can do that this year. He offers no speed and you’ll be lucky to get two stolen bases from him this season. Furthermore, Chapman doesn’t offer the positional flexibility that others around him do. Do you really think guys like DJ LeMahieu and Jeff McNeil should be going ahead of Chapman, on a talent basis? Absolutely not.

However, in the eighth round of drafts, Chapman gives your team some power upside, and a.260 batting average is nothing to scoff at. There is a lot of talent at the third base position in fantasy baseball this season, including a lot of top-end talent, as seen by five guys being drafted within the top 23 picks, per NFBC ADP data.

Personally, Chapman is a guy I would love to target in the eighth round of drafts this season. You have enough time to get some pitching, get some high average guys, maybe a speed guy or two, and his 40 homers and .260 batting average fits perfectly in your lineup. Chapman is currently the 14^th third baseman off the boards, but he doesn’t end the year as the 14^th-most valuable fantasy player at his position. He will be in the top 10 at his position.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball