Breakout seasons at the age of 29 usually result in an outlier season. Marcus Semien will try to shatter the mold in 2020 following up his success from last year. Semien set career highs in most fantasy categories along with some team records as well. He scored 123 runs tying a franchise record for Oakland set by Reggie Jackson in 1969, this also ranked third in the American League in 2019. Among his peers in the American League, Semien finished second in total bases (343), third in doubles (43), extra-base hits (83), fifth in hits (187), sixth in walks (87) and ninth in plate appearances per strikeout (7.32). Semien also led the American League shortstops in fielding percentage (.981) which potentially fueled his surge on offense. Think of him like a catcher who worked at his craft then finally focused on his hitting.

Semien sowed the seeds of this within his plate discipline. Check his growth in the last three seasons in each of these metrics:

  • Swinging strike percentage: 2017 (10.3), 2018 (8.3), 2019 (7.2)
  • Contact rate: 2017 (76.9), 2018 (81.1), 2019 (82.9)
  • Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percent: 2017 (85.3), 2018 (88.3), 2019 (89.7)
  • O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percentage: 2017 (26), 2018 (26.2), 2019 (23.1)

Over 747 plate appearances last year, Semien notched a .285/.369/.522 slash line with an 11.6 walk percentage and a 13.7 strikeout rate with both numbers representing career bests. On Statcast, Semien cut his chase percentage from 23.5 in 2018 to 19.2 last season while reducing his whiff percentage by points. LIke his numbers on Fangraphs, Semien’s grown his Z-Contact percentage in each of the last three seasons as well. Using the Statcast chart for swing and takes, Semien really improved his approach as evidenced in the data along with this illustration:

Representing a profile with upside, Semien usually gets relied upon for double digit home runs with stolen bases making him a player worth targeting as drafts get deeper. In 2019, Semien appeared in all 162 games accruing 747 plate appearances, 123 runs, 33 home runs, 92 RBI and ten steals along with his strong slash line above. Not a surprise, but Semien also recorded a career best .237 isolated power with his home run per fly ball percentage jumping to 15.3 percent.

Discerning how much of Semien’s breakout can be sustainable will determine his outlook for 2020. According to Statcast, Semien produced 556 batted ball events with 47 barrels (8.5 percent), an 88.8 MPH average exit velocity and 14.7 degree launch angle. Semien doubled his barrel rate and home run total versus fastballs last year. Here’s his spray chart from 2019 of all batted balls in play:

Digging into his expected statistics, some migration to the mean could be in the offing. Semien’s expected batting average (.275) and expected slugging (.475) sit below his actual numbers from last year. He recorded a 37.8 hard hit rate with 41 percent ground balls, 25.5 percent fly balls and a 25.2 line drive percentage. Here’s his zone profile, once again from Statcast:

It could be fortunate Semien’s breakout occurred in possibly the best hitting environment ever in the majors with spikes in runs and home runs across the board. With speed being pushed up in drafts, Semien remains a player to target for home runs with pocket steals. Planning for some regression will be prudent but his projections do not portend a collapse either:

  • Marcus Semien 2020 Steamer Projection - 150 games, 678 plate appearances, 98 runs, 25 home runs, 79 RBI, 12 stolen bases; .269/.347/.465
  • Marcus Semien 2020 ATC Projection - 146 games, 667 plate appearances, 100 runs, 23 home runs, 77 RBI, 10 stolen bases; .270/.346/.461

Early market returns suggest Marcus Semien will not be overpriced on draft day and hits the marks required when building a roster with 20 or more home runs with at least 10 stolen bases and a .270-ish batting average. All of these align with 80th percentile numbers in 12-team leagues. Many will chase sexier picks at shortstop earlier in drafts, but if one misses out, reaching a round over his average draft position for Semien definitely makes sense. A repeat of last year may not happen, but his projections above seem well within reach with the gains in discipline and a potent Oakland lineup.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen