Almost 18 months removed from Tommy John Surgery, Lance McCullers Jr. enters this season with a tweak to his arsenal and potential upside. When McCullers last pitched in the majors during 2018, he won ten games with a 3.86 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, and 142 strikeouts versus 50 walks over his 128.1 innings. He notched a 26.9 strikeout percentage and 9.5 walk rate despite ditching his four-seam fastball due to ineffectiveness using a two-seam (sinker) instead. McCullers Jr. still owned his career best 13.5 swinging strike percentage and 32.4 O-Swing percent. He reduced contact to 70 percent and yielded an 84.1 Z-Contact percentage.
Using 2018 as a guide, here’s a visual of McCullers Jr.’s pitch plot of his arsenal:
It’s amazing McCullers Jr. deployed his curve almost every other pitch, yet recorded strong ratio statistics. Of course, owning an elite strikeout pitch benefits his repertoire. Keep this in mind when viewing his results from 2018 with reports from this year’s spring training. First, McCullers Jr.’s pitches in terms of effectiveness:
- Curveball - 34.9 strikeout percentage, 37.2 whiff rate, 24.7 put away percent
- Sinker - 13.9 strikeout percentage, 16.7 whiff rate, 17.6 put away percent
- Change-up - 28.8 strikeout percentage, 42 whiff rate, 26.9 put away percent
Shelving his four-seam fastball caused McCullers Jr. to use his change more. His pending surgery following the 2018 season forced him to use the sinker with decent results but the emergence of his change to accompany his plus curve adds to his intrigue going forward. Here’s his swing and miss chart from 2018:
Part of the Astros pitching mantra lies in using the four-seam fastball up in the strike zone to generate more strikeouts. Beat writer Jake Kaplan noted McCullers Jr. feeling healthy will be bringing back the pitch in 2020. This unlocks the talented pitcher’s arsenal. Being able to work in the top third of the strike zone and above it could unlock even more missed bats with his two off-speed offerings.
Plus, McCullers Jr. owns a career 55 percent ground ball rate according to Statcast data giving up fly balls in 16.2 percent of batted ball data and a 24.5 line drive percentage. Depressing hard hits and generating ground balls while working in all parts of the strike zone make McCullers Jr. a worthy flier in drafts.
Tempering his upside, McCullers Jr. highest innings total of 164 occurred in 2015, but Houston will manage his workload to maximize the pitcher’s usage. Forecasting a range of outcomes for his 2020 season depends on how he increases his potential for strikeout upside plus managing his ratio statistics. In 2018, McCullers Jr.’s FIP of 3.50 and expected earned run average of 3.86 provide a scale of potential outcomes in the year ahead. Transitioning to his average projections using four systems on Fangraphs, it aligns with past performance:
- Lance McCullers Jr. 2020 Aggregate Projection - 25 starts, 144 innings, 11 wins, 159 strikeouts, 3.72 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
At first glance, the WHIP seems a bit high for McCullers Jr. and the strikeout total should exceed this average projection given reports of the return of his four-seam fastball to go with his change and curve. In the event of a shortened season, here are his projections for two different scenarios:
- McCullers Jr. 108-game season projection - 16 starts, 92 innings, seven wins, 101 strikeouts
- McCullers Jr. 81-game season projection - 12 starts, 69 innings, five wins, 76 strikeouts
With all of the information available, gamblng on McCullers Jr. to beat his WHIP and strikeout totals in these projection sets makes sense given the data provided. He seems primed for a return to his 2018 level of production, so taking a chance on 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, an ERA in the 3.60-range and a WHIP below 1.20 could happen, even in a truncated season. At his present price point, taking a chance on McCullers Jr. makes perfect sense.
Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Jake Kaplan article: https://theathletic.com/1662311/2020/03/09/the-evolution-of-astros-starter-lance-mccullers-jr-s-pitch-mix/