2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Kevin Newman

As a first round draft pick back in 2015, Kevin Newman enters the 2020 season with a little hype behind him. In 130 games with the Pirates last season, he slashed .308/.353/.446 with 12 home runs, 61 runs scored, 64 RBI and 16 stolen bases. His 2019 numbers were far better than 2018, when his cup of tea in the big leagues was quite ugly. However, in his 25-year-old season, he was solid and was a valuable addition by fantasy owners last season. The Pittsburgh Pirates are likely going to be pretty bad as the team enters a rebuilding mindset, so does this derail some value with Newman or is there still a buying opportunity? It’s time to dive in and take a look at the 26-year-old and what 2020 entails….

Newman never had a particularly statistically dominant season in the minors. He moved around a lot, but in his longest stint, which was 109 games at the Triple-A level in 2018, he hit .302 with four home runs and 28 stolen bases. In the majors, however, he was good across the board! Newman doesn’t walk a ton, as on average he has typically sat in the right around six percent, but he doesn’t strike out a lot either, considering that outside of his first 31 professional games and eight games at Triple-A in 2019, his career high strikeout rate is just 12.7 percent, which was back in 2015! His SwStr% rate of 6.6 percent is excellent.

The best number about Newman is 87. His 87 percent contact rate was tied for fourth-best in baseball last season! He was tied with Alex Bregman , and only David Fletcher (91.1%), Michael Brantley (90.8%) and Anthony Rendon (88.3%) posted a higher mark amongst qualified batters than Newman. That’s certainly encouraging, because should Newman swing-and-miss a bit more, his batted ball profile outside of his contact rate isn’t exactly encouraging.

Using some numbers at Baseball Savant, there are some metrics that don’t exactly scream dominance for 2020.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Fortunately, Newman is pretty fast, so that will help, more than just on the base paths. So, as you can see, should Newman strike out a bit more or make less contact at an elite rate, that batting average is going to tumble. Fortunately, he has a decent track record of hitting at a reliable clip, and it’s not like he has ever been a big time slugger. Consistency should help, but expecting a batting average north of .300 this season is unreasonable. His xBA of .291 last season is a good indicator of what we can expect in 2020, but likely something closer to the .280-.285 range.

Will he run more in 2020? If so, it’s a big boost to his fantasy value. He was 16-for-24 on the base paths last season, so while it’s encouraging that he ran often; it would be nice to see that success rate be higher than the 66.7 percent he displayed last season. New coach Derek Shelton is coming to Pittsburgh after serving on the Twins staff for the past three years, and while he may not have had a large say in things, Minnesota posted one of the lower stolen base attempts per game each of the past two seasons, but they ran a good bit back in 2017 (0.59 SB attempts per game, per Team Rankings). If Newman can get to 20 stolen bases, that would be exceptional.

Starling Marte is out of Pittsburgh, so it hurts the lineup as a whole, but perhaps Newman can push closer to the top. Adam Frazier and Bryan Reynolds likely open the year as the one and two hitters, but perhaps Newman can assert himself to the top to garner some plate appearances. However, looking at the lack of punch in the bottom of the order after Newman, perhaps they let him run more down there. Starting the year hitting sixth or seventh isn’t the worst thing in the world for Newman, especially if he continues to run.

This year in fantasy baseball, there is a lot of fantasy stardom at shortstop, including Adalberto Mondesi , Trea Turner , Francisco Lindor , Trevor Story , Fernando Tatis Jr., Gleyber Torres , and more. However, while Newman lacks a punch in the power department, he’s essentially a poor man’s version of quite a few players going before him. Take a look.

Projected Stats Courtesy of Steamer Projections

There are some pretty sizable gaps between the players above.

Player A is Amed Rosario .

Player B is Tim Anderson .

Player C is Elvis Andrus .

Player D is Mr. Newman.

Shortstop is a very deep position, and guys like Rosario, Anderson and Andrus have either higher upside or an established fantasy floor, but Newman is a guy that if things go well, he could be a 10/20 guy, or maybe even 15/20. Oh yeah, per Steamer projections, Newman will hit for a higher average, and have a higher on-base percentage than any of those guys in the table.

If you load your team up on power early on, and have good power numbers, you can waiting 60-80 picks and take a guy like Newman, who should have a better impact on your team’s batting average than some of the other guys in that table, at a discount.

Is it safe to say that Newman is a poor man’s Tim Anderson , or Amed Rosario or Elvis Andrus ? Overall, sure, but I like the slight increase in batting average at a discount. Some of the counting stats will be a bit down, especially runs and RBI, due to the nature of Pittsburgh’s lineup, but he should provide excellent value, especially compared to some options ahead of him.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball