2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Keone Kela

The stretch run in 2019 was a dominant one for Pittsburgh reliever Keone Kela . In his last 23 innings of the season, he yielded just one earned run that spanned 18 appearances. For the year as a whole, he posted a 2.12 ERA across 29.2 innings, and he was statistically better than his 2018 season where he posted 24 saves across 52 innings. It was the first time in the past four years that he failed to eclipse a 30-percent strikeout rate, but he did post an impressive 89.5-percent strand rate. There are some concerns with Kela, but he has every opportunity to begin the year as the closer for the Pirates. Sure, it’s not as heralded a position as it once was, but saves are saves. Will he end the year as the team’s closer? Maybe not, but he’ll begin there.

Kela relies on his fastball and curveball, throwing them nearly exclusively. However, he does have a changeup that he’ll mix in every now and again. He has an impressive whiff rate on that pitch over the past two years, so maybe he throws it a bit more in 2020. Will he actually? Probably not, but considering his whiff rates dropped in 2019 on his two primary pitches, perhaps a tertiary option, even as just a “show-me” option would benefit Kela.

His SwStr% in 2019 was comparable to his 2017 mark, but down compared to other marks. Additionally, his 2.12 ERA is pristine, but perhaps he was on the right side of the metaphorical pillow. His FIP of 3.52 and xFIP of 4.28 indicate that his earned run average should have been considerably higher. Additionally, his .225 BABIP is about 40 points below his career average.

Another interesting thing to note is that while Kela allowed a career-high exit velocity of 88.8 miles per hour, opponents should have done far more damage against Kela than they really did on fly balls. Take a look at average exit velocity by year for Kela on just fly balls and line drives.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Furthermore, his HR/FB of just 9.7 percent is incredibly lucky, considering the fact that he generated soft contact on just 12.9 percent of fly balls last year, which was a career low. Also, opponents generated a launch angle of 19.1 degrees against him last year, and this does mark the third time in the past four years that his HR/9 was above 0.90. However, that mark will likely sky north of 1.00 in 2020, if he doesn’t generate more ground balls or generate more soft contact on fly balls.

Kela is a bit volatile, both in terms of his personality and predictive performance. The closer role requires a certain mentality, and Kela has displayed the ability to hold the role in the past. As I alluded to earlier in this piece, while he will begin the year as the team’s closer, he likely doesn’t end the year there. It’s a very real possibility that he’s traded at the deadline, whenever that may be, to a contending team and serve as a setup man. This will undeniably kill his fantasy value, but saves are saves, regardless of how or when you get them.

If the home runs don’t bite him where the sun doesn’t shine in 2020, he can give you decent production as a closer with a handful of saves and a strikeout per inning of work. Pittsburgh may not get him a ton of save opportunities, but that’s a glass half full look!  Look at this way, sure, save opportunities may not come in bunches, but it’s not like Pittsburgh is going to be blowing teams out! So, if they happen to stumble across a lead late in the game, they are going to turn the ball to Kela.

I wouldn’t make him your first closer, considering you need to bake in the likelihood of a trade, but he’s a fine second or third closer for your team.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball