Justin Verlander turned in one of the best pitching performances of his career in 2019. He won more than 20 games for the second time of his career. Verlander led the majors in both wins (21) and innings pitched (223). He also recorded the lowest WHIP (0.80) and batting average against (.172) amongst his starting pitching peers. Pretty impressive at the tender age of 36 years young.
Delving into his underlying numbers, Verlander notched the best swinging strike percentage (16.1) and O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) percentage of his career (37.2) while yielding a career low 68.8-contact percentage against. Using Statcast data, Verlander racked up the second-lowest expected batting average against (.189) among starting pitchers with at least 500 plate appearances against, the eighth-best expected slugging percentage given up (.355) and second-best expected weighted on-base average (.249). However, Verlander allowed a career-worst 16-percent home run per fly ball percentage and a 41.8-percent hard hit rate versus on Fangraphs.
Trying to conflate how Verlander will depress home runs going forward lies within his pitch usage. Last season he used less fastballs while ramping up his slider, curve and change-up utilization. When viewing his expected statistics by pitch, it’s apparent Houston recognized Verlander needed to throw fewer fastballs:
- Four-seam Fastball - 49.2-percent usage, .231 xBA, .521 xSLG, .334 xwOBA, 31.7 strikeout percentage, 31.1-whiff percent
- Slider - 28.2-percent usage, .144 xBA, .223 xSLG, .175 xwOBA, 41.1 strikeout percentage, 40-whiff percent
- Curve - 18.5-percent usage, .216 xBA, .293 xSLG, .243 xwOBA, 32.6 strikeout percentage, 27.9-whiff percent
- Change-up - 4.1-percent usage, .153 xBA, .249 xSLG, .167 xwOBA, 29.7 strikeout percentage, 33.8whiff percent
Fantasy owners investing in Verlander need him to continue morphing his arsenal usage to maintain his excellence. It’s apparent his slider generates swings and misses but he needs to throw his fastball early in counts to get ahead. Using Brooks Baseball usage chart, here’s a look at how Verlander attacked hitters in 2019:
Hitters will be trying to attack Verlander early in counts to hit his fastball. Of course, barreling up a fastball proves not to be easy, but if his command struggles or Verlander centers one, he will continue to give up home runs. Luckily, Verlander served up 28 solo home runs of the 36 yielded last season. This kept his ratio statistics intact. But it’s something to monitor going forward. Of course, if the baseball gets modified in 2020, it could help out starting pitchers. Food for thought.
Verlander will stay viable due to his unbelievable run of health. Just know his increased slider usage could take a toll as he ages. It should not be a warning beacon in 2020, but two years down the road it may. With his Statcast numbers displayed above, here’s Verlander’s arsenal in pitch plot form:
He’s very efficient with his pitches and now an illustration of the swinging strikes he produced in 2019:
Verlander averaged just under 6.2 innings per start in 2019 at a time when most pitchers do not face a batting order more than two times. He’s adapted his arsenal to adjust to last season’s hitting environment with success.
Over the last three years, Justin Verlander ’s logged the most innings (650) with the most wins (52) of any qualified pitcher. He ranks second in strikeouts (817) and WHIP (0.96) along with fourth in ERA (2.80). Drafting him with confidence in the second round makes sense due to his win percentage, ability to adapt and innings pitched. How close to his projection Verlander finishes will ultimately decide his worth in fantasy. Steamer forecasts Verlander with 16 wins among 23 decisions, 204 innings, a 266:47 K:BB, 3.46 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. With health, this remains well within reach.
Savvy owners will pay attention to Verlander’s velocity along with if he’s willing to incorporate his change-up more in the season ahead. There’s an old saying, one cannot teach an old dog new tricks, but Verlander continues to evolve as a pitcher which last year brings light to. Do not pay for a full repeat of 2019, but Verlander remains an ace to target for fantasy. Plan on his ratios to increase, but there’s hope in the arsenal deployment to defeat Father Time once again.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
BrooksBaseball.net
Steamerprojections.com