At a time when fantasy owners scramble to insulate their team’s batting average, Justin Turner provides a perfect salvo at a reduced price point entering 2020. Of course, his inability to stay on the field contributes to his depressed cost logging 372 games over the last three seasons (124 games played average). However, within this sample of three years, Turner owns a robust .308/.396/.517 slash line in 1,533 plate appearances with 217 runs, 62 home runs, 191 RBI and 11 stolen bases. Pretty solid baseline of statistics.

Last year, Turner appeared in 135 games scoring 80 runs with 27 home runs, 67 RBI, two stolen bases and a .290/.372/.509 slash. He traded some discipline for power reducing his contact rate by 4.1 percent but registering a career best home run per fly ball percentage of 17 percent fueling his surge. In fact, 2019 ended with Turner on fire reaching base in 20 of his last 26 contests resulting in 10 home runs, 17 RBI and a .312/.387/.656 line in them. Of course, the bounciness of baseballs last year also contributed to many player’s power numbers, but noting Turner’s strong discipline metrics, he’s tough to ignore.

According to Statcast, Turner recorded 396 batted ball events last season with 31 barrels (7.8 percent), an average exit velocity of 90.2 MPH (his best total since 2016) and a 17.6-degree launch angle. Here’s his spray chart from 2019:

Beneath his surface data, Turner owned a .288 expected batting average, .517 expected slugging and .378 expected weighted on-base average. He produced a hard hit rate of 43 percent with a 34.8 ground ball percent, 29.8 fly ball percentage and 28.8 line drive rate. His solid contact spiked to 9.3 percent, representing his highest mark over the last five years. Here’s his zone profile as a point of reference:

As inferred, there’s no risk investing in Justin Turner as a corner infielder with upside, it lies in how many games will he accrue. This resonates in his projections:

  • Justin Turner 2020 Steamer Projection - 139 games, 613 plate appearances, 86 runs, 26 home runs, 85 RBI, three stolen bases; .281/.364/.487
  • Justin Turner 2020 ATC Projection - 126 games, 536 plate appearances, 77 runs, 23 home runs, 86 RBI, three stolen bases; .288/.372/.498
  • Justin Turner 2020 THE BAT Projection - 139 games, 616 plate appearances, 87 runs, 24 home runs, 86 RBI, three stolen bases; .289/.372/.492

At some point, Turner’s average will regress due to age and each system takes this into account. But, ignoring his spot in the Dodgers lineup and hoping he repeats his 135 games from last year makes him a bargain at his current average draft position. If a team owns power upside, taking Turner to balance a Khris Davis or Kyle Schwarber makes perfect sense. Just treat Turner like a player who will hopefully reach 135 games played, not one who will log 150 or more.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty