It’s difficult to fathom the talent of Juan Soto with so many young players emerging across the fantasy landscape. However, his passion for the game along with the ability to produce in a pressure packed environment like the World Series will not be overlooked in his projections. Soto appeared in 150 games last year with 110 runs, 34 home runs, 110 RBI, 12 stolen bases and a .282/.401/.548 slash line. He owned a 16.4 walk percentage versus a 20 percent strikeout rate with a .266 isolated power.

Although his batting average on balls in play decreased compared to his debut in 2018, Soto displayed above average plate discipline metrics during his Age-20 season. Soto finished with a swinging strike percentage of nine, a 77.9 contact percent, 86.6 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate and 23.4 O-Swing (out of the zone) percentage. His average dropped a bit in the second half last season but his walk to strikeout rate improved while producing more fly balls and hard hits. This could signal a swing adjustment by Soto and some intriguing buildout to his fantasy profile.

According to Statcast, Soto recorded 416 batted ball events with 51 barrels (12.3 percent), a 91.3 MPH average exit velocity and a 12-degree launch angle. In his second year in the majors, Soto registered 100 more batted ball events but with 20 more barrels. He also improved his sweet spot percentage to 36.3 percent while increasing his hard-hit rate by 5.6 points to 47.8 percent. As alluded to above, Soto traded ground balls (down 12.1 percent) for fly balls and line drives with each finishing over 26 percent last year. However, Soto did not sell out his approach pulling the ball for 35.6 percent of his batted ball data with 38 percent up the middle and 26.4 percent to the opposite field. Here is his spray chart from last year:

Part of the fuel for Soto’s success lies in his ability to generate hits in the strike zone. He upped his zone swing percentage to 66.5 percent and his zone contact rate to 84.1 percent in 2019. His expected statistics of a .285 expected batting average with a .576 expected slugging and .407 expected weighted on-base average (13 points above his actual) suggest some bad luck by Soto last season. Knowing his age, his projections suggest growth going forward making him an interesting target in 2020 as does his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Through 266 career games in the majors before turning 21, Soto’s scored 187 runs with 56 home runs, 180 RBI, 17 stolen bases and a .287/.403/.535 slash line. He’s tied for second in major league history with 56 home runs before his 21st birthday. Soto will not turn 22 until late October in 2020. With this in mind, Soto’s average projection across five sites on Fangraphs sets him up well for the upcoming season:

  • Juan Soto 2020 Aggregate Projection - 153 games, 106 runs, 35 home runs, 113 RBI, 10 stolen bases, .293 average

One of the most aggressive projections belongs to ZiPS and if Soto approaches it, he could be a top 10 player in fantasy as a result. However, considering a potentially shortened season, here’s how Soto’s numbers could look like as a result:

  • Soto 108-game projection - 75 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBI, seven stolen bases
  • Soto 81-game projection - 56 runs, 19 home runs, 60 RBI, five stolen bases

No matter how many games Soto plays, fantasy owners will focus on how his ability to hit for an average above .290 develops and if he maintains the gains in producing more fly balls and line drives with strong plate discipline metrics. There’s potential for Soto reaching another level in fantasy production even if it does not happen in the year ahead. Pay for the projection but there’s room for profit in the 21-year-old talent.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski