2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Josh Bell

Up until 2019, Pittsburgh first baseman Josh Bell was a James Loney type, meaning he didn’t provide the power numbers others did at the position. Bell wasn’t necessarily a great source of batting average, as he hit .255 and .261 in 2017 and 2018. However, something clicked in 2019 for Bell. In 143 games, he slugged 37 home runs, scored 94 runs, drove in 116 and slashed .277/.367/.569. It was a monster season for Bell and he rewarded fantasy owners handsomely. Losing Starling Marte hurts the lineup as a whole, but there are some young guys that are poised to hit for a decent average, so perhaps his RBI total doesn’t take too much of a hit from last year. Is 2020 comparable to 2019 for Bell, or going to see some regression and he returns to an average producer in terms of power?

First and foremost, Bell was a Statcast freak last season. He ranked in the 90^th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, xwOBA and xSLG. It was an exceptional season for Bell, and there’s no denying that. Will some of those marks regress a bit in 2020, given numbers in previous season, probably, but it’s encouraging, nonetheless.

His HR/FB rate jumped to 23.9 percent, which is a rather high number, and way higher than his 9.2 percent mark in 2018. In 2017, the mark was 19.1 percent, but he hit just 26 home runs in 159 games. Not only did he see a jump in that mark overall, he hit fewer ground balls as a whole. See below:

Ground balls are down, fly balls are up and hard contact is ALL THE WAY UP!!! Even if the hard contact drops a bit in 2020, which it likely will at least a little bit, it’s encouraging that we have a multi-year trend in decreasing grounders and increasing fly balls. Now, when you look at some other marks, per Baseball Savant, we see promising trends as well.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Barrel rate steadily increasing? Check.

Increasing exit velocity? Check.

Increasing exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (AKA the batted balls that matter)? Check.

Launch angle increasing? Check.

Swinging at pitches in the zone? Check.

He’s checking a lot of boxes. Interestingly enough, his overall contact rate was down, and he whiffed more, but it’s encouraging that he’s swinging at pitches in the zone with more regularity. Because he swung the bat more overall, it did lead to more whiffs, and the propensity to chase a bit more.

Let’s take a look at Bell’s production and field distribution.

Would it behoove him to pull the ball more? Well, let’s analyze.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Bell doesn’t hit many ground balls to the opposite side of the field, but when he pulls the ball, he has an alarmingly high ground ball to fly ball rate. Last year, it was 3.00 GB/FB, which is an improvement upon his 3.93 and 4.95 marks in 2017 and 2018 respectively. Believe it or not, he is solid driving the ball the other way, but power production for him is made to the middle of the field and his pull side.

There was going to be some regression with some of his stats, but his walk rates and strikeouts rates staying similar, there’s a lot to like with Bell. Even if we were to get a full 162 game season, I’m not sure Bell would match his 37 round-trippers from last year or his lofty 14.2 AB/HR mark. Let’s say this year, he hits one every 17 at-bats, which is well within reason, here’s where he would end up.

Despite some likely minor regression in some categories, Bell figures to be a value as the 10^th first baseman off the board, just inside the top 95 picks overall. His run producing opportunities might be slightly diminished, given the loss of Marte, but Pittsburgh has some intriguing young bats that might make up for a good chunk of it. No, none of them are Marte-esque, but as a tandem, or as a unit, they might be able to do just enough to keep Bell’s RBI totals amongst the league leaders.

He represents great value in the seventh or eighth round if you want to lock up this position.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
espn.com