Fueled by a .312/.368/.514 slash line with 13 home runs in 85 games at the All-Star break, it appeared Jorge Polanco would make good on his breakout performance during his limited sample in 2017. However, in the second half Polanco played through lingering ankle issues. He made zero stolen base attempts after the break with his slash line dropping to .273/.341/.447 with nine home runs during his last 68 contests. Polanco underwent ankle debridement surgery in November with eyes on a pain free 2020 season.

Despite the second half dip in average, Polanco still provided pop increasing his home run per fly ball percentage. Overall, Polanco appeared in 153 games in 2019 with 107 runs (10th in the American League), 22 home runs, 79 RBI, four stolen bases and a .295/.356/.485 slash. He amassed over 700 plate appearances hitting second for most of the season in one of the most prolific offenses last year. Noting the improved power, Polanco’s isolated power spiked to .190 in 2019 while his walk percentage (8.5) and strikeout rate (16.5-percent) remained in line with past results.

In terms of plate discipline, Polanco’s swinging strike percentage rose slightly to 7.3-percent perhaps driven by his lack of speed in the second half forcing him to try to hit for more power. Legs provide the base for production so any pain in the knees or ankles can affect a swing. Note Polanco’s 90.7-percent Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate and 28.5 O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percent which reinforce Polanco’s breakout carrying over.

According to Statcast, Polanco recorded 524 batted ball events with 35 barrels (6.7-percent) with an average exit velocity of 87 MPH (up 3.1 MPH) and a 17.9-degree launch angle. Polanco also notched a 41.8-sweet-spot-percentage and career-best 33-percent hard hit rate. Reducing his ground ball percentage to 31.9-percent (down 6.6 points) and generating more fly balls (29-percent - up almost 10 points) combined for his career-high in home runs last year. More encouraging, Polanco remained steady in line drive percentage with a 30.9-percent mark. Here’s his spray chart from 2019:

Even though Polanco is a switch-hitter, he pulls the ball for power more as a left-handed hitter and stays in the middle of the field as can be seen above. It’s encouraging to see a batter improve upon his power without selling out for a spike in pulling the ball and a frayed approach. In terms of expected statistics, Polanco owned a .279 expected batting average and .469 expected slugging. It’s not known how much his ankle injury nagged performance after the break, but even if he migrated towards his expected average from 2019 in the year ahead, it still sets a solid baseline to work from. Here’s his zone profile from last season:

Not only did Polanco finish 10th in runs in the American League last year, he accrued 54 multi-hit games on his way to 186 hits in 2019. For owners trying to boost runs as a category as drafts move on, Polanco remains a bargain. Especially given his growth as a hitter. Slotted to hit second again in an even deeper lineup, fantasy owners can invest at his present price point for a potential bargain. Especially if his ankle health yields more stolen bases. In 2017, Polanco stole 13 bases in 18 attempts with a 28.4 feet per second speed rating on Statcast. Last year, Polanco recorded a 28.2 feet per second mark with his injury, limiting him to seven attempts and four steals all season. Any migration towards his projections would be a boon to his owners.

Using all five projection sets available on Fangraphs, here’s Polanco’s average line using the five statistical categories in rotisserie:

  • Jorge Polanco 2020 Aggregate Projection Baseline - 150 games, 89 runs, 19 home runs, 79 RBI, seven stolen bases, .281 average

With baseball potentially adjusting the games played this season, here’s how his numbers would appear in different games played scenarios:

  • 120 Games - 71 runs, 15 home runs, 63 RBI, six stolen bases
  • 100 Games - 59 runs, 13 home runs, 53 RBI, five stolen bases
  • 80 Games - 47 runs, 10 home runs, 42 RBI, four stolen bases

Mining his data from the last three years, Polanco owns upside in batting average and runs compared to his projections. Any bonus in steals would be welcomed and within the realm of outcomes. It’s doubtful Polanco can get to double digits again, especially with Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson hitting behind him, it’s not necessary for him to be overly aggressive on the bases knowing two veteran run producers can drive him in from anywhere. Still, paying for close to 100 runs in a full season with 20 home runs and seven stolen bases with a .290 average makes sense for Jorge Polanco . Remember shortstop remains a very deep position in fantasy this year when building rosters for league titles and do not forget about how good Polanco’s been the last two years.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com