Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea should get a lot of praise in the Oakland rotation, but there’s a young lefty that will push them for the “ace” label. Jesús Luzardo is a dynamic young southpaw that flashed extended moments of brilliance this spring before COVID-19 halted, well, the world. We saw a glimpse of what could be last year, when the Athletics brought Luzardo up to help anchor the bullpen down the stretch. He notched two saves, and in 12 innings of work, he posted a 1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and a lofty 34.8 percent strikeout rate. Excellent. Now, he gets a crack at the Oakland rotation, and he’s ready to provide the statistical return to live up to his lofty prospect ranking.
Luzardo has a four pitch repertoire, and last year, he used each pitch at least 20 percent of the time, well if we are generous with the rounding rule on his changeup (19.35 percent per Brooks Baseball). His sinker and change do a good job of inducing ground balls, and his curveball was hardly put in play (6.94 BIP, per Brooks Baseball) last year. Furthermore, his change and curve both generated whiff rates of 19 percent or higher. Interestingly enough, however, he’s a four pitch guy against righties, but he hardly uses his changeup against southpaws. However, with a fastball and a sinker, he can get away without using the changeup much, because his curve and slider will run away from lefties, and his fastball and sinker can be used to “dive in” at a lefty.
Also, let me put something into perspective here. Albeit in a super small 12 inning sample size, his 63.33 whiff/swing mark over at Brooks Baseball is fascinating. Essentially, it means that every three swings at his curveball generated two whiffs. That is exceptional! This is going to be a weapon for him moving forward, and in terms of his whiff/swing mark on his other pitches, his fastball and change-up registered above average, and his sinker was just slightly below average. Three plus pitches for a young lefty is phenomenal and is why everyone is all over him this year.
For his minor league career, he punched out 234 guys over 195.2 innings to go along with a 2.53 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He was dominant at virtually every level, which helped him catapult up the prospects rankings. He’s absolutely filthy, and while he generated just a 14.6 swStr% last year, that mark should be on the rise here in 2020.
Coming into draft season, the big knock on Luzardo had nothing to do with talent or overall skills, it was more so his innings cap. However, he stands to gain quite a few notches here with the global pandemic. If Major League Baseball settles on a 100-game season starting in the summer, it’s feasible that he gets a “full year’s work,” despite it being a shortened season. He would likely get 100 or so innings this year, and with the shortened season, Oakland may not have to be too creative with the youngster. Assuming he makes 20 starts, which is likely on the high-end, an average of five innings gets him 100 for the year.
When you arguably remove the biggest knock on a player, does that represent good value for Luzardo, as he’s currently pick 118 and the 39th pitcher off the board? I believe so, absolutely. Unfortunately, so does everyone else. Some of this could be attributed to his spring performance, but since March 15th, just a few days after spring training was cancelled, he is currently the 29th pitcher off the board, coming in right around pick 97. From just March 27th until now, he’s the 28th pitcher off the board at pick 91.75! Yes, I do believe some of it is because of his dominant spring, but I do believe the reason he’s going ahead of guys like Sonny Gray and Corey Kluber is because the worry of an innings limit is removed, or at least heavily lessened because of a shortened baseball season.
In a shortened season, guys that are innings eaters and stat compilers take a bit of a hit, where guys that have major upside or are elite per-inning producers get a bump. The biggest knock on Luzardo has at least been weakened, and his dominant spring fueled the fire that propelled his average draft position through the roof. In dynasty setups, he’s one of the more valuable arms one could own. He’s incredibly fun to watch, and there are some injury concerns because of his past and high-effort delivery, but he’s a stud in the making.
He’s going to make quite a few starts for the Athletics this season, and he will post a solid strikeout rate and ratios for your squad. Making him your SP1 is a bit risky, but the potential of making him a high-upside SP2 for your team is tantalizing. He’s going to cost you more than he would have a few weeks ago, but again, his potential on a per-inning basis is elite.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
milb.com