2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: J.D. Martinez

Boston’s J.D. Martinez is one heck of a slugger, and despite being a second round draft pick in most formats, is it perhaps that he’s underappreciated? Quite possibly. Yes, he doesn’t steal bases, but does that really take away his ability to be an above average producer in FOUR other categories. Out of the five roto categories, he’s above average in four of them, but sure, let’s just overlook him! He has at least 36 home runs, 105 RBI and a .300 average in EACH of the last three seasons. He’ll inevitably get some off days due to a tight back or some sort of muscle soreness, but having the DH helps, and the guy has still played in 146 or more games in two of the past three seasons. Early draft picks don’t have to be your sexiest selections, and there’s nothing wrong with getting an established veteran or two early on in your draft. There’s safety in security, ladies and gentlemen.

Martinez is elite at the dish and there are some positive things to note in the graph below, courtesy of Fangraphs.

His contact rate is up from years past, and when you couple that with the fact that he’s whiffing less, it’s a beautiful thing to see. I’m also encouraged by his O-Swing% rate continuing to decline. Again, beautiful sight, my friends.

From last season, his average exit velocity and hard hit rate come in at the 89^th percentile, and while his launch angle isn’t as prolific as you might expect, it did increase from 2018. Last year, his launch angle was 12.5 degrees, whereas in 2018, it was just 10.7 degrees. For the most part, 2018 was a down year for Martinez on the peripheral level, and from the chart below, you’ll see that his average launch angle on various pitches in 2018 were either career lows, or rivaled his previous career lows.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Yes, I won’t ignore the fact that his barrel rate dropped overall. However, I’m not overly concerned by that. And neither should you. Also, if his barrel rate rebounds this season, and he hits fly balls at a similar rate, and his HR/FB ratio falls in line, could he get to 50 home runs this season? With health, I won’t rule it out. Yes, there’s a lot if’s in there, but the floor is rock solid with Martinez, which makes taking the risk all the more worth it.

In 2019, there were 14 players to have an average exit velocity of at least 91 miles per hour, a launch angle of 12 or more degrees and a barrel rate above 12 percent. Only one player had an xBA over .300. That was Martinez. Not Mike Trout . Not Ronald Acuna. Not Pete Alonso . Not Aaron Judge . Martinez, and only Martinez. That’s elite.

Here’s the interesting thing with Martinez. His projections for 2020 rival a player routinely being drafted in the first round. However, you won’t find Martinez being drafted in the first round. If you’re looking to build your team with one first rounder in particular because he’s a “safe, solid selection,” then you must love Martinez, because he’s the same guy, just at a position where you have to start five players instead of one!

Let’s cut to the chase. Martinez and Nolan Arenado are practically the same person. They are routinely the safest selections outside of Mike Trout , and the only things that Arenado has over Martinez is the game’s best offensive park as his home stadium and durability.

Courtesy of Steamer Projections

You can have Martinez 10 picks later than Arenado, and you’re getting essentially the same player! Reliable power, solid batting average, plenty of runs and RBI, and no stolen bases. Well, maybe one or two steals, but still, you get the point. There are some durability concerns with Martinez, and there’s no denying that. Also, Mookie Betts leaving in town hurts the entire Boston lineup, but there was more to that lineup than Betts. Andrew Benintendi should bounce back and be a steady piece at the top of the lineup. Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers are rock solid options.

Martinez will have plenty of opportunities to produce in 2020, and I’m steadfast in my beliefs that he’s one of the safest picks in fantasy baseball at a reasonable price.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
steamerprojections.com