Every season saves emerge from the waiver wire, often times from unlikely sources. From May 30th until the end of the season, Ian Kennedy recorded the most saves in the majors, including 19 in the second half. Kennedy became the fifth Royal ever with a 30 save season. He joins John Smoltz, Derek Lowe and Dennis Eckersley as the only four pitchers with a 20 win season and 30 saves in a different one in their careers. 

In 2019, Kennedy won three of his five decisions with 30 saves, a 73:17 K:BB, 3.41 ERA, 3.77 xFIP and 1.28 WHIP. He recorded a 27.4 strikeout percentage with a 6.4 walk rate. During his sample from May 30th to the end of the year, he worked 40.2 innings with a 47:13 K:BB, .233 batting average against, 2.88 ERA, 3.75 xFIP and 1.18 WHIP. Transitioning from the rotation to the bullpen, Kennedy reduced usage of his change-up while throwing more fastballs and cutters. Here’s his pitch plot from last season on Statcast:

According to Statcast, Kennedy allowed 175 batted ball events, 11 barrels (6.3 percent), an exit velocity of 87.6 MPH and 13.4-degree launch angle. He generated a strikeout percentage of 30.4 with his four-seam fastball and 25.5 whiff percent with it. His cutter only produced a 9.4 strikeout percent but yielded a ground ball rate over 60 percent. This aligns well with his curve which yielded a ground ball percentage of 55.3 percent with a 26.4 strikeout percent and 24.7 whiff rate. Kennedy’s swing and miss chart illustrates his four-seam fared best in 2019:

Moving to the bullpen suited Kennedy well. He increased his swing percentage by 1.3 percent and his whiff rate by five percent. His expected numbers also improved. Kennedy’s expected weighted on-base average finished 14 points below his actual while his expected weighted on-base average on contact of .353 resided under the league average (.400). His zone profile shows hope for a carry-over:

Although Kennedy’s swinging strike rates do not jump off the page, his 45.7 ground ball percentage and 33.3 hard hit percent allowed last year bode well. Noting his finish the year over his last 40.2 innings, Kennedy remains well below the radar in average draft position in part to his team and trust he can repeat his success.

Kennedy’s projections will reflect regression due to his time as a starting pitcher prior to last season:

  • Ian Kennedy 2020 Steamer Projection - 3 - 3, 31 Saves, 65 IP, 67:20 K:BB, 4.34 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
  • Ian Kennedy 2020 ATC Projection - 3 - 3, 27 Saves, 66 IP, 69:20 K:BB, 3.94 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Heeding Ian Kennedy ’s xFIP of 3.77, there’s room for migration to the mean, but he should be able to beat the ERA’s forecast above. A WHIP closer to 1.2 seems more palatable as well with a chance for 70 strikeouts if he reaches 65 innings. Whether or not Kennedy remains the closer for Kansas City seems less likely than him beating the ratio projections. They could trade him prior to the deadline during a continued rebuild. Luckily owners can still profit on 20-plus saves before this occurs if he comes close to replicating last season. Act accordingly.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen