Sometimes a change in scenery can unlock the potential of a player. After being released by the Mets in 2018, Hansel Robles ascended to the closer role for the Angels last season. Robles went 5-1 with 23 saves, a 75:16 K:BB, a 2.48 ERA, 3.89 xFIP, and 1.02 WHIP. While many invested in Ty Buttrey winning the ninth inning role, Robles not only held on to the closer role, he surged as the season progressed. 

From June first until the end of 2019, Robles recorded a 1.52 ERA over 47.1 innings with a 40.8 ground ball percentage and .231/.267/.325 slash against. Of the 182 total batters faced in this sample, Robles owned a 27.5 strikeout percentage against a five percent walk rate, struck out 50 while walking nine leading to a 1.01 WHIP. Between August 21st and September 14th, Robles retired 27 straight hitters. 

Part of his success lies in adding what many sites label a change-up to his arsenal but with a split-finger grip. His bullpen coach, Andrew Bailey , encouraged Robles to use the pitch in games. Here’s a look at Robles’ pitch plot from Statcast:

Statcast identifies his new pitch as a change-up. After June first, Robles used the pitch 32.3 percent of the time. He recorded a strikeout percentage of 31.6 or higher in three of the four ensuing months with an average whiff percentage of 31.5 percent. Using the swing and miss option from Statcast, here’s all of Robles swinging strikes generated from 2019:

Like many pitchers, Robles tries to elevate his fastball while mixing in the slider and change-up at the bottom or below the strike zone. According to Statcast, Robles finished 2019 with 192 batted ball events and 10 barrels yielded (5.2 percent). Robles’ expected statistics of a .225 expected batting average (xBA) against and .367 expected slugging (xSLG) reinforce his strong campaign last season. Noting his arsenal from above, here’s his pitches and their usage along with performance from 2019:

  • Four-seam Fastball - 48.9 percent usage, .207 xBA, .279 xSLG, .268 expected weighted on-base average, 31.3 strikeout percentage, 25.6 whiff percent
  • Change-up - 22.3 percent usage, .184 xBA, .253 xSLG, .192 expected weighted on-base average, 30.8 strikeout percentage, 36 whiff percent
  • Slider - 21.5 percent usage, .287 xBA, .492 xSLG, .295 expected weighted on-base average, 13.3 strikeout percentage, 21.7 whiff percent
  • Sinker - 7.4 percent usage, .286 xBA, .511 xSLG, .321 expected weighted on-base average, 18.2 strikeout percentage, 20.5 whiff percent

Shifting to Fangraphs, Robles recorded more ground balls last season, up 4.2 percent and only allowed a 7.9 home run per fly ball percentage of his 40.4 fly ball percentage yielded. He increased his swinging strike percentage to 12.2 percent and slightly decreased contact allowed. Noting his surge in the last 47-plus innings of 2019, Robles upped his swinging strike percentage to 13.6 percent. Due to his past struggles, projections will not be kind to Robles but he’s in line to return as the closer for an improved team. 

Since joining Los Angeles, Robles has appeared in 108 games with a 5-2 record, a 111:31 K:BB, 2.64 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP. Add in the evolving arsenal with the change-up (split-finger) to his strong finish to 2019 and the projection systems usually do not account for improvement as reflected below: 

  • Hansel Robles 2020 Steamer Projection - 3 Wins, 23 saves, 65 IP, 71:24 K:BB, 4.19 ERA, 4.60 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP

There’s a chance Hansel Robles could migrate towards his 3.89 xFIP from 2019 in the season ahead, but given his track record with the Angels along with the tweaks in his repertoire, he will be able to perform better than this projection. Volatility accompanies the closer position but with Robles atop the hierarchy entering 2020 and his team fighting for a playoff spot, his first 30 save season could be on tap. Robles sets up as a second closer in fantasy but one with a chance of upside if he carries over the gains displayed from June first forward. 

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Statistical Credits: 

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

Steamerprojections.com

Baseball-Reference.com