2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Giancarlo Stanton

If only we could get a repeat of 2017 for Giancarlo Stanton ; fantasy owners would be ecstatic. That year, he hit 59 home runs in 159 games in the spacious confines of the Marlins’ park, but since that magical season, he’s homered just 41 times in 176 regular season games with the New York Yankees. The media spotlight he would receive in the Big Apple was not underestimated, and even the slightest of slumps can have the Yankee faithful turn on you. There’s a lot of star power in New York, and some average at best starting rotations, and Stanton’s current average draft position makes him a great draft day value at first glance. As a prolific power hitter, are we giving the 30-year-old outfielder too much credit?

Outside of that 2017 season, Stanton has never hit more than 38 home runs in a single season. Furthermore, he appeared in just 18 regular season games last season, and when he did return for the 2019 postseason, he slashed a subpar .231/.389/.462 with just one home run in 18 plate appearances. Outside of 2010, he averages just 118 games per season, and the injury concerns with Stanton simply won’t evaporate as he progresses farther north of 30-years-old.

Last year, was essentially a wash for Stanton, as he went on the injured list early in the year with a biceps strain, and then of course, shortly after return, he goes back to the dreaded injury list with a knee sprain. That’s certainly not ideal, and we’ll chalk up the 2019 season to injuries and the inability to establish any sort of rhythm at the dish.

His numbers from his first season in New York and his best professional season weren’t too far off from one another. Take a look here at some of the metrics from those two seasons that were quite comparable:

Courtesy of Fangraphs

While some of the above is good, there are a few peripheral numbers that point to Stanton being more indicative of his 2016 self, rather than being comparable to the 2017 season. Was the 2016 season (27 HR in 119 games) bad? No, but that was the year where the strikeout rate hovered near 30 percent and his batting average tumbled to a career-low .240. In 2018, Stanton rode a .333 BABIP and better home park to a .266 batting average, so expecting the .281 of 2017 seems to be excessive for 2020.

Let’s take a look at some of the other peripherals between 2016-2018 that point out the fact that while Stanton’s power potential remains elite, he is staring down the barrel of a 40+ home run season with a .255-.265 batting average.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

The other issue with Stanton is that he struggles against right-handers. Stanton will destroy southpaws with ease, but against righties, it’s a different story. Take a look through the years:

Courtesy of Fangraphs

In his new digs, it’s imperative that Stanton at least tries to utilize the short porch in right-field that lefties take advantage of on a nightly basis. However, do the numbers reflect it? They sure do.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Common sense, and the statistics, say that it behooves Stanton to continue looking to drive the baseball to right-field, especially in his home park. It certainly helps that he plays in a good division with favorable stadiums, as well as some weaker rotations that he can feast on. He should talk to his teammate Gleyber Torres about how he can decimate the Orioles!

Also, did I mention injuries? Stanton is hurt just about every year and drafting him is comparable to walking on broken egg shells, sitting on broken glass atop a bed of fire. Long story short, it’s a rough thing with Stanton. Could he hit 60 home runs in a year? Probably. Could he hit 50? Hell yes he can. However, do we know how many games we are getting from Stanton. Nope. It’s early March, and he already had something pop up that is putting Opening Day in jeopardy.

In prior years, Stanton was a guy that would require a first or second round pick, perhaps a third rounder if you’re lucky, but that’s not the case here in 2020. Stanton’s current ADP has him coming off the board as a fourth-rounder in 15-team setups! Let’s have some fun with the numbers here, using Steamer projections and ADP data from the NFC.

Courtesy of Steamer Projections

Player A is Stanton.

Player B is Peter Alonso.

Player C is Joey Gallo .

Player D is Aaron Judge .

The steamer projections believe that not only can Stanton put together a relatively healthy season (139) games, but also expect that he leads the league in home runs and puts together an overall statistically significant 2020 campaign. Is there some risk here? Absolutely there is. He struggles with righties and injuries, and there’s a reason that his ADP has been going the wrong way over recent seasons. However, if there’s ever a year to buy in on Stanton, 2020 is that year.

At his current price, his upside is undeniable and if you grab two guys in the first three rounds that give your team some speed, Stanton is an excellent complement with his potential power production. I would strongly recommend staying up to date with his current ailment, and while I’m not too worried about it long term, his injury history isn’t exactly indicative of this being a once-and-done thing. It’s a lengthy injury history, but if I can get him at a discount of a round or two from before, I’m still buying in. Fingers crossed. Hold your breath. Knock on wood. Whatever you want to do. Hope for good health the rest of the way!

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball