Weighing risk versus reward on a young catcher depends on league size and eligibility rules. For those in one-catcher formats, the fungibility of the position lends itself towards more risk if letting the position drift. In two catcher leagues, having one solid catcher and one with potential upside makes sense. Residing on the radar at catcher for years it seems, Francisco Mejía should be in line for an expanded role with the Padres but it remains to be seen. He appeared in 79 games last season but only accrued 244 plate appearances with 27 runs, eight home runs, 22 RBI and a stolen base with a .265/.316/.438 slash line.

However, those aspiring for upside will point out his second half surge during which Mejia hit a robust .305/.355/.511 with six home runs over 141 plate appearances spanning 44 contests. It’s a small sample, but one of intrigue. During this stretch, Mejia owned an inflated .358 batting average on balls in play with a 6.4 walk percentage and 21.3 strikeout rate. His isolated power spiked to .206 and his home run per fly ball percentage rose to 12.5 percent after the break.

Questions remain about Mejia’s defensive capability in the majors and with a veteran staff, he will be under pressure to perform well enough calling games for San Diego to take advantage of the potential upside in his bat. Taking all of this into account, Mejia finished last year with a 5.3 walk percentage, strikeout percentage of 23 and a .173 isolated power. He reduced his swinging strike percentage to 13.3-percent but his O-Swing (outside the strike zone) rose to 47.9-percent, less than optimal. Despite his aggressiveness at the plate, Mejia posted an above average 76.4 contact rate and respectable 82.1 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage. There’s room for growth, but how much? Sustaining his second half breakout seems unlikely over the long haul.

Checking his minor league numbers, Mejia does not need more seasoning to prove his worth. During 128 games at Triple-A, he’s slashed .302/.348/.506 with 18 home runs in 541 plate appearances. In 92 games at Double-A, Mejia posted a .297/.346/.490 slash with 14 home runs in just under 400 plate appearances. Translating his on-base percentage towards his 34 percent mark at these two levels to a 32-to-33 percent rate in the majors would be enticing.

According to Statcast, Mejia recorded 171 batted ball events last year with eight barrels (4.7 percent), an 87.8 MPH average exit velocity and 19.1 degree launch angle. Mejia either made an adjustment to elevate his balls in play since his limited sample in 2018 yielded an 8.8 degree launch angle. Here’s his spray chart so far as a major league hitter:

Although Mejia’s a switch hitter, he tends to pull the ball from each side of the plate with more power displayed from the left-side so far. He cut his whiff percentage to 25.7-percent last season and generated a 23.4 line drive rate with a 26.3 fly ball percentage. His pull percentage for the season finished at 45.6-percent, representing almost half of his batted ball data. Mejia owned a 29.8 hard hit percentage with a 31.5 sweet spot percent which depresses his expected statistics. Before delving into them, here’s Mejia’s zone profile from last year courtesy of Statcast:

Mejia’s expected batting average of .229 and his expected slugging of .391 should cause some concern for prospective buyers based on his strong second half. Filtering out luck with an inflated BABIP and the bounciness of the baseball must be baked into his outlook for 2020. Here’s his projection sets from three sites:

  • Francisco Mejía 2020 Steamer Projection - 90 games, 368 plate appearances, 40 runs, 13 home runs, 45 RBI, two stolen bases; .258/.307/.432
  • Francisco Mejía 2020 ATC Projection - 106 games, 390 plate appearances, 43 runs, 13 home runs, 46 RBI, two stolen bases; .257/.307/.435
  • Francisco Mejía 2020 THE BAT Projection - 99 games, 390 plate appearances, 42 runs, 11 home runs, 47 RBI, two stolen bases; .253/.305/.413

One cannot ignore his ability to produce across the top two levels of the minors along with his strong finish to last year. But, paying above his present price point to roster him could be a risky venture. Value Mejia as a second catcher with upside. If he can handle the day-to-day rigors as a catcher in the majors, he could breakout in 2020, but it feels more like 2021 could be the more likely result. For now, heed his on-base tendencies, if the launch angle sticks and how his approach at the plate develops. Perhaps he will once again be a better player in the second half, so be patient if he’s a target this season.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty