A freak accident in a swimming pool caused the price of the hitter with the second most home runs in 2019 to fall in early drafts. However, a delayed start to the season allows Eugenio Suárez not only to rehab his shoulder, but provide potential profit to savvy owners. Only Mike Trout (84) blasted more home runs than Suarez (83) over the last two years. In 2019, Suarez ranked third in home runs per at-bat (11.7) and sixth in total bases (329), but he led the majors in strikeouts (189). 

Across 159 games, Suarez hit 49 home runs with 87 runs, 103 RBI, three stolen bases and a .271/.358/.572 slash line. His walk rate held steady at 10.6 percent but his strikeout percentage rose to a career worst 28.5 percent while his isolated power (.301) spiked to a career high. Suarez paid a price in his plate discipline metrics recording a career high swinging strike percentage (11.9), with career lows in both contact rate (73.1 percent) and Z-Contact (in the strike zone) of 84.6 percent. It is apparent Suarez owns power upside, but his underlying numbers could yield a lower average going forward if his aggressiveness does not wane. 

According to Statcast, Suarez registered 392 batted ball events with 55 barrels (14 percent) with an 89.4 MPH average exit velocity and 17.8 degree launch angle. Suarez actually suffered a drop in hard hit percentage to 40.8 last year which almost matched his 39.3 sweet spot rate. Home run peaks can accompany a rise in pull percentage and Suarez followed this path in 2019 pulling the ball 50 percent of his batted ball data compared to a 39.4 pull percentage in 2018. With an increased launch angle, Suarez produced a 31.6 fly ball percentage and 24 percent line drive rate. Here’s his spray chart from last year of all batted balls in play: 

It’s encouraging to note Suarez hit home runs to all fields, but one cannot ignore his drops in zone percentage, zone swing percent, and zone contact rate. On the one hand, Suarez raised his barrel percentage by almost five percentage points but his solid contact fell slightly. Trying to discern how this will impact his average going forward remains to be seen. Transitioning to expected statistics, Suarez owned a .248 expected average, .503 expected slugging, and .355 expected weighted on-base average (26 points below his actual). Here’s his zone profile as a point of reference:

Ranking as one of the best power hitters of the last three years, Suarez remains an alluring target in fantasy, especially if his shoulder fully heals. Over the last three seasons, Suarez accrued 1,636 at-bats with 253 runs, 109 home runs, 289 RBI, eight stolen bases and a .271/.364/.521 slash line. Noting his frays in approach, the projection systems forecast a drop in average but not power. Taking the aggregate average of five projection sets, here’s how his projection for 2020 appears:

  • Eugenio Suárez 2020 Projection - 149 games, 87 runs, 37 home runs, 102 RBI, three stolen bases, .260 average

This seems like last year when Suarez owned a projected batting average near .265 but he hit .271 in the actual season. He’s been able to maintain a respectable average despite his aggressive nature. If the season gets truncated, here’s some potential projections for forward thinkers:

  • Suarez in a 108-game season: 63 runs, 27 home runs, 74 RBI, two stolen bases
  • Suarez in an 81-game season: 47 runs, 20 home runs, 55 RBI, two stolen bases

Paying for an average in the .265-to-.275 range seems probable but there’s a chance it migrates towards his expected average from Statcast. Suarez remains in his power peak, so with health, the home runs will follow. At a reduced price, Suarez can be targeted with confidence for 2020 despite his warts. Add in an improved Reds lineup and his RBI could receive a bump as well making him a worthy third baseman with his upside tied to his shoulder and where his batting average finishes. 

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com