After accepting a six-year contract from the White Sox, Eloy Jiménez made his debut in 2019 with aplomb. He became the sixth player since 1988, and 19th ever, to launch at least 30 home runs in his rookie season in the American League. Jimenez led all American League rookies in home runs (31), total bases (240) and RBI (79) while finishing second in extra-base hits (50). During his rookie campaign, Jimenez appeared in 122 games with 69 runs and a .267/.315/.513 slash accompanying his power numbers listed previously. 

Beneath the surface statistics, Jimenez recorded a walk percentage of six with a 26.6 percent strikeout rate and .246 isolated power. He generated line drives in 18.2 percent of his batted ball data with a 47.9 ground ball percentage, 33.9 fly ball rate, 27.2 home run per fly ball percentage and 38.1 hard hit percent according to Fangraphs. In terms of his discipline, hopefully Jimenez can improve upon his 15.3 swinging strike percentage and 69.4 contact percent. 

Although Jimenez produces easy power, he’s not strictly a pull hitter. Using Statcast’s slice chart on batted balls projected to be 200 feet or less, he displays a willingness to use left-center field and driving the middle of the field: 

With Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnación added to the roster, some tutelage in terms of patience may be preached. More importantly, they will model how to work at-bats which could translate well for Jimenez who surged in September with 24 RBI including three different games with four RBI efforts. 

Transitioning to Statcast, Jimenez produced 336 batted ball events with 43 barrels (12.8 barrel percentage) and a 91.2 MPH average exit velocity. His hard hit percentage on this site of 47.9 percent includes 161 events with an exit velocity of 95-plus MPH and a 96.6 MPH average exit velocity on line drives along with fly balls. Even though Jimenez only registered line drives and fly balls under 40 percent of the time, when he elevates a baseball it travels well. A key number for owners of Jimenez to track will be his 9.3 degree launch angle. If he can move this number closer to the 13-to-15 degree range, his power will spike. Here’s a look at his spray chart on hits from last season: 

Armed with an expected batting average of .268, a .521 expected slugging and tantalizing .454 expected weighted batting average on contact, Jimenez could hit 40 home runs as soon as 2020. His zone profile reflects the potential for more going forward:

But, what spot he bats in the White Sox lineup could affect his counting statistics even with the new additions providing a much deeper lineup. Last year, White Sox batters hitting fifth scored 75 runs with 91 RBI, a cumulative .264 average and .737 on-base plus slugging percentage. Six hitters crossed the plate 68 times with 74 RBI, an aggregate .253 average and .725 on-base plus slugging percent. 

In 2019, Jimenez hit .267 with a .828 on-base plus slugging percentage. Both Steamer and ZiPS project growth from him in 2020 in each of his slash line measurements. However, his runs and RBI upside may depend on where he hits in the batting order. For now, here’s both projection sets: 

  • Jimenez 2020 Steamer Projection - 141 games, 523 at-bats, 80 runs, 33 home runs, 90 RBI, two stolen bases; .279/.328/.522
  • Jimenez 2020 ZiPS Projection - 134 games, 519 at-bats, 75 runs, 33 home runs, 92 RBI; .281/.329/.532

Both projections provide a solid baseline of production for Jimenez while not predicting a sophomore slump. All the additions made by the White Sox should insulate Jimenez from an adjustment year along with his obvious talent. Determining a ceiling will depend on his total games played and at-bats. Jimenez could hit 40 home runs this season. He will need to bat fifth to score at least 85 runs or drive in close to 100. Use the projections above when drafting Jimenez in the fifth round but hope for more in an improved lineup. Eloy Jiménez seems primed to build on his impressive rookie campaign and will be treated as such in upcoming drafts and auctions. Especially if his launch angle improves and his line drive rate reaches 21 percent or higher. Stay tuned. 

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Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski