Every year fantasy players overlook veterans who do not present upside. It’s like clockwork. While many focus on where many free agents headed this off-season, Edwin Encarnación agreed to a one-year deal with the White Sox to bolster an already burgeoning lineup. Last season, Encarnacion missed almost a month with a fractured wrist but still launched 34 home runs in only 109 games with a .244/.344/.531 slash line in 486 plate appearances. While he’s not getting any younger, Encarnacion can still rack up home runs and provide on-base skills at the plate.

This will benefit a White Sox team which also added Yasmani Grandal to boost the team on-base average while providing length to the lineup. Encarnacion recorded an 11.9 walk percentage with a 21.2 strikeout rate. His isolated power rose to .287 benefiting from the “juiced” baseball last year and his home run per fly ball percentage finished at 21.1 percent. Appearing at first base 57 times, he avoids the utility only slot making him more alluring.

Shifting to his Statcast results, Encarnacion registered 318 batted ball events with 40 barrels (12.6 percent), an average exit velocity of 90 MPH and a 22.5-degree launch angle. He notched a hard-hit percentage of 42 with a 34.6 sweet spot percent. A key to his success generating home runs, Encarnacion owned a 31.1 fly ball percentage and 23 percent line drive rate last year:

It’s easy to see Encarnacion’s power to his pull field and he hit to left field 48.1 percent of the time last year. This could play well in his new home as well, teaser alert. In terms of expected statistics, Encarnacion recorded a .242 expected batting average with a .513 expected slugging, both slightly below his actual numbers. Providing average upside will not be a part of Encarnacion’s appeal for fantasy, but his zone profile affirms his power:

Although veterans rarely provide upside, Encarnacion’s last three seasons yields why he’s a safe bet to attain his projection sets. Over his last 407 contests, Encarnacion’s scored 252 runs with 104 home runs, 300 RBI, five stolen bases and a .249/.354/.499 slash line during 1,751 plate appearances. Solid as a rock. Within this sample, he owns a 13.1 walk percentage, 21.1 strikeout rate and .250 isolated power. Due to a low batting average on balls in play (.259), his average gets capped but can be accounted for by insulating Encarnacion on a roster during drafts. As for the upside of heading to the White Sox, here’s his spray chart from the last three seasons with his new home as the backdrop:

Taking all of this into account, Encarnacion’s projections seem well within reach in spite of him entering his Age-37 season:

  • Edwin Encarnación 2020 Steamer Projections: 130 games, 558 plate appearances, 78 runs, 33 home runs, 89 RBI, stolen base; .246/.346/.498
  • Edwin Encarnación 2020 ATC Projections: 128 games, 546 plate appearances, 78 runs, 32 home runs, 90 RBI, stolen base; .246/.341/.495
  • Edwin Encarnación 2020 THE BAT Projections: 130 games, 552 plate appearances, 75 runs, 33 home runs, 83 RBI, two stolen bases; .244/.333/.495

Sometimes, a high floor makes a player just as appealing as a reach in drafts for upside. Given health, Edwin Encarnación owns enough power to record 30 home runs no matter what type of baseball gets used in 2020. Account for his average in the mid-.240’s or low .250’s with a bevy of runs and RBI en route in a strong lineup. Long story short, target Encarnacion with confidence at a reduced price point if missing out on the top targets at first base.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty