2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Chris Paddack

A year ago, at this time, we were pleading the Padres to let the Sheriff break camp in the starting rotation. Well, they did, and Chris Paddack  certainly didn’t disappoint. As expected, he was on an innings limit, and while his 9-7 record was nothing to write home about, his 9.79 K/9 was excellent, and he posted a quality 3.33 ERA. His 3.95 FIP and 4.05 xFIP indicate that his ERA should have been a bit higher, but he does a great job of minimizing damage, and his 1.98 BB/9 keeps him out of avoidable danger. As the year went on, his stats dwindled a bit, but that was to be expected, considering he didn’t pitch in 2017 due to injury and he threw just 90 innings in 2018.

Take a look at his numbers across his first 82.1 innings, compared to the last 58.1 innings he threw in 2019.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Paddack was as good as they come in the beginning of the season. He carried over exactly what he did in the minors, which was striking out more than one batter per inning, hardly walking guys and doing a good job of minimizing hard contact. He pounds the strike zone (11^th highest zone percentage amongst pitchers with at least 140 innings last season) and his 21.5 percent K-BB rate was 14^th best in the same parameters.

There are a few big things that make Paddack a polarizing fantasy asset this season. The first of which is his arsenal, and more specifically, his pitch usage. Paddack was very good last year relying on two pitches; a fastball with pinpoint command and good velo, and a nasty changeup that had batters spinning in circles like you would see in a cartoon. Paddack was one of seven pitchers to have a wFB metric higher than 13.0, and another pitch higher than 7.5, per Fangraphs.

He relied on these pitches nearly 90 percent of the time, and he mixed in his curveball just a hair over 10 percent of the time, per Baseball Savant. He will need to use his curveball more to keep batters honest, and not just sitting on his bread-and-butter pitches. Honestly, it’s not like his curveball was bad, he just needs to hone this pitch in. When you look at his pitch map here, you will see that his curveball can be improved upon, if he can get out of the upper and middle parts of the zone.

Also, interesting tidbit, his ERA and FIP at home were nearly identical, but he was definitely not as dominant on the road, compared to the friendly confines of his home park. See for yourself…

Courtesy of RotoBaller

It’s encouraging to hear that Paddack and the Padres understand the need for their right-handed ace to develop a quality tertiary option. It also gives him a different look for batters. If he can develop this curveball into a weapon, and not just a “show-me” pitch or a “get-me-over” option, batters are going to dread facing the Sheriff. Also, did you see he got a tattoo of a lion on his forearm, so that the batters have to see it when he’s in the stretch? Does this matter in fantasy? Nope. Does it push him up my draft board? No, well, maybe. Is it freakin’ cool? Hell yeah it is!

The other factoid that makes Paddack a polarizing fantasy option is the price it takes to acquire his services. He’s currently the 17^th starting pitcher off the board, with an average draft position of pick 56.25, which puts him in the late-5^th to early-6^th round of 12-team formats. That’s an expensive price to pay for a pitcher who is coming off a 50 inning jump and has a career high of 140.2 innings pitched. San Diego has stated he won’t be on an innings limit, but let’s be honest, at the ripe age of 24, it’s hard to believe the Padres trot out Paddack for 200 innings this year, even with a spotless bill of health and elite performance from start to finish. Fantasy owners should be ecstatic to get 180 innings out of Paddack this season.

It’s starting to feel as if Paddack is going to be a personal preference here in 2020. If you are a firm believer in his talent and that his curveball develops into a quality third pitch, then you will probably be chomping at the bit to get him as your team’s second starter in the fifth or sixth round. However, if you’re concerned about not getting 200 innings from your second starter or if he’s closer to his 3.95 FIP than last year’s 3.33 ERA, you might be more inclined to take a proven veteran like Clayton Kershaw (56.02 ADP) or wait a round or two or three for other high-upside arms like Tyler Glasnow (69.61 ADP) or Mike Soroka (104.73 ADP).

Paddack has low-end SP1 upside, but the uncertainty around where his innings will be by seasons end is enough to push him into the SP2 category. He’s a reliable, upside play as your team’s second starter, but again, he does have that low-end SP1 upside, especially if his curveball improves, and he trusts it.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
rotoballer.com