Shoulder issues and appearances as a reliever make a profile on Carlos Martínez difficult. He reported to spring training vying for a spot in the Cardinals rotation and a path to starting again exists for Martinez. However, as a reliever in 2019, Martinez won four games with 24 saves in 48 games working 48.1 innings with a 53:18 K:BB ratio, a 3.17 ERA, 2.86 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. He led the majors with 21 saves in the second half last year while yielding zero home runs over his last 25 appearances spanning 22.2 innings and 95 total batters faced. 

Last year Martinez recorded a 26.5 strikeout percentage versus a nine percent walk rate. As can be expected, he increased his swinging strike percentage to 12.6 working exclusively as a reliever. With a 74.4 contact percentage, an 85.4 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percent and a career best 35 O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percentage. 

While it’s apparent Martinez can succeed as a reliever, shifting back to the rotation will affect his fantasy value. When viewing his pitch usage from last year, some intriguing data emerges. Here’s his pitch plot courtesy of Statcast from 2019:

As a reliever, Martinez used his change-up more resulting in a spike in strikeout percentage to 41.5 last season. It also finished with a 37.9 whiff percentage and 29.8 put away rate. His slider also improved to a 41.2 strikeout percentage with a 40.8 whiff rate and 27.3 put away percent. He also used more four-seam fastballs than sinkers last year with success. Carrying these over as a starter could benefit his development. First, here is the swing and miss chart of his pitches:

According to Statcast, Martinez gained in his swing percentage to 49.7 percent last year as a reliever, up three points and his whiff rate rose by 3.5 points to 28.4 percent. He also increased his ground ball percentage to 58.7 percent while giving up fewer line drives with his fly ball rate remaining steady. Again, it remains to be seen if he can translate the gains as a starter, but the path exists if he uses more four-seam fastballs, changeups, and sliders in the year ahead. 

When viewing his projections, they use a mix of starts and relief appearances due to the last two seasons with him working in high leverage moments. But, a delayed start to the season allows Jordan Hicks to rehab from his Tommy John surgery and permits Martinez to log innings as a starter without taxing his shoulder. Here is his average projections from four systems on Fangraphs: 

  • Carlos Martínez 2020 Aggregate Projections - 30 games, 23 starts, eight wins, 138 innings, 132 strikeouts, 3.95 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Although Martinez owns some upside in regard to wins as a starter, his WHIP as one compared to a reliever resonates in the above projection. Again, there is a path for him to reduce walks and hard hits against by adjusting his arsenal, but it will not show up in his current projection sets. If there’s a shortened season, his projection alters and here’s two different scenarios:

  • Martinez 108-game projection - 15 starts, five wins, 85 innings, 82 strikeouts
  • Martinez 81-game projection - 12 starts, four wins, 68 innings. 64 strikeouts

Due to the variables facing Martinez, with health included, there is a certain level of risk. Upside resides in his ability to carry over strikeouts as a reliever to the rotation as alluded to above. How many starts and innings he logs depends on health and performance. Use the information from the profile to invest wisely. 

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com