2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Bryce Harper

Theoretically, we are entering the prime of Bryce Harper ’s career. He’s 27 years old, but this will be his ninth professional season. Wow. The first seven were spent in the nation’s capital, but he inked a mega deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, and while it wasn’t as glamorous as many expected, it was actually a really good year for the talented outfielder. He played 157 games, swatted 35 home runs, drove in 114 runs and even swiped 15 bags, which was hi highest total since he stole 21 back in 2016. His 4.6 WAR in 2019 was the third-highest of his career, so while is everyone knocking Harper last season? At the very least, he returned adequate value from his average draft position (ADP) last season, and his current ADP of 27.14 puts him at the back end of the 2^nd round in 15-team formats.

Knock on Harper all you want after last season, but Harper was one of just five players in 2019 to hit at least 35 home runs and steal at least 15 bases. The other four were Ronald Acuna, Christian Yelich , Trevor Story and Cody Bellinger . Harper may not have lived up to the hype in 2019 in his new home park, but come on, what he did was still exceptional. The others are glamorized for those numbers, but we look down on Harper for it? If I’m going to get another 35/15 campaign from Harper again in 2020, sign me up. I won’t complain!

Now, with that out of the way, what do we make of Harper in 2020? There are certainly some reasons to be pessimistic on his outlook, and push him outside of the top 10 at his position, but there’s also reason to believe he can parlay last year’s second half into a productive 2020 campaign.

Let’s start with some of the more worrisome points regarding Harper. First and foremost, some of his peripherals aren’t exactly trending in the right direction. His strikeout rate has increased each of the past three seasons, his walk rate has been below 15 percent in two of the past three seasons, and his on-base percentage has dropped 20 or more points each of the past two seasons.

Take a look at some rolling graphs below, courtesy of Baseball Savant, and the worrisome trends, specifically with his increasing strikeout rate and diminishing walk rate.

The strikeout rate has increased because he’s leaving the zone a bit more, but more so, he’s making less contact and whiffing more. Take a look at the pure numbers below:

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Want an interesting comparison? In terms of contact and swing-and-miss rate, Harper is essentially a richer Luke Voit (66.7% contact rate and 15.8% SwStr) and rather comparable to Eloy Jiménez (69.4% contact rate and 15.3% SwStr).

The increasing strikeouts and diminishing walk rate pose a viable threat to his batting average and on-base percentage in 2020 and the years ahead, but at this point, you aren’t drafting Harper to inflate your team’s batting average. It’s safe to say that we will likely never see the .330 average he put forth in 2015, or even the .319 mark from back in 2017. Honestly, it’s hard to expect him to hit for that high of an average, considering that only five batters (Yoán Moncada , Story, Danny Santana , Javier Báez , Acuna) in 2019 hit .280 or higher with a strikeout rate higher than 26 percent. If Harper hits .270 or higher, fantasy owners would likely be rather ecstatic.

Now, the optimism for Harper in 2020 is quite tantalizing. Despite pessimistic outlooks and perceptions, we may be getting a slight discount on Harper this season, despite the fact that he’s hit 30+ home runs and swiped at least 13 bags in two straight seasons. He’s hitting in the middle of a talented lineup in a positive park for hitters. What’s there not to like? Also, over the final two months of the season, Harper was playing at an elite level.

From August 1^st until seasons end, Harper hit .277 with 17 home runs, 42 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 51 games. Only six players had more home runs than Harper during that span and only seven players had more stolen bases. Additionally, he was one of just four players to have double-digit homers and stolen bases during that span. Is it sustainable? Maybe not quite at that clip, but it’s encouraging that his strikeout rate (24.2%) and walk rate (12.1%) over the course of those 51 games was in line with his overall totals (26.1 K%, 14.5 BB%) for the 2019 season.

If Harper picks up where he left off last season, he will easily outperform his ADP, putting up back end first round production from the late-second/early-third round range. Hitting .280 this season would be exceptional, and certainly boost his return on investment, but a more likely outcome is seeing Harper hit in the .255-.270 range with 40 home runs, 100 RBI, 100 runs scored and 10-15 stolen bases. Pairing Harper with another multi-category producer is a great way to start your draft, especially if you can get some higher average guys to offset Harper’s .255-.270 clip.

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Statistical Credits:

baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
fangraphs.com