Just inside pick 200 of most NFBC drafts, you’ll see Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe . At the second base position, he provides some nice pop and does a little bit of everything. Over 82 games with the Rays last season, he hit 17 home runs with 51 RBI, stole five bases and posted a respectable .270/.336/.514 slash line. His 34.6-percent strikeout rate is a bit high, but he hits righties very well, despite the whiffs. As a talent, there’s a lot to like about Lowe, but his overall situation might not be as positive as you may think.
When Lowe doesn’t strike out, he makes quality contact. He didn’t meet the criteria to qualify on the leaderboard, but here’s where some of his marks would have ended up:
Metric | Lowe | Would Be Rank | Comparable Players |
Barrel Rate | 16.3% | 8th | |
Avg. Exit Velocity | 91.1 | 36th | |
Avg. Exit Velocity on FB/LD | 96.0 | 30th | |
Percentage of Balls hit 95+ MPH | 46.2% | 32nd |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
Lowe does an excellent job making hard contact, and his numbers compare quite nicely to other guys who hit at least 25-30 home runs per season. Well, for the most part, but you get the gist of my point. The other thing I like about Lowe’s 2019 season is that while his launch angle increased a good bit, it was a product of increasing across the board. It jumped against each category of pitch.
Now, were the improvements made across the board in terms of average exit velocity? For the most part, yes. Let’s take a look, courtesy of Baseball Savant.
The jump on fastballs was nice, and the staggering increase against offspeed offerings was exceptional. It’s a big reason as to why he hit .320 against those offerings last year, and his xBA was over 100 points higher. Sure, that could slip a bit in 2020, and it just might. Oh, there’s another line up there. Breaking pitches. This is where it gets a bit ugly. Let’s focus on curves and sliders in particular.
Warning: What you are about to see might hurt your eyes.
| Whiff/Swing | Batting Average Against | ISO |
Slider | 49.69% | .239 | .224 |
Curve | 48.74% | .225 | .082 |
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Yikes. Not encouraging. I fully envision opposing pitchers giving him a healthy dosage of non-fastballs in 2020. You’ll see it in other terms here shortly, but when lefties were ahead, they peppered him with non-heaters, and that contributed to his lofty strikeout rate. On the other hand, righties continued to give him faster offerings. Again, that will change in 2020.
Lowe has a lot of good metrics going for him, and while the Rays are one of the more forward thinking teams in the baseball, this does yield some problems for Lowe in 2020. Playing time is a concern for Lowe this year, because the numbers from 2019 are pretty cut and dry. See for yourself below.
| AVG | BB% | K% | Hard Contact % |
Vs. L | .242 | 2.9% | 52.9% | 33.3% |
Vs. R | .278 | 8.9% | 29.7% | 44.8% |
He won’t get many at-bats against lefties, but Lowe has given the Rays no reason to not maximize his at-bats against righties. This will allow him to keep his batting average closer to his .270 mark from last year, if not a bit higher, and in a full season, he would likely hit 20+ home runs with 5-8 stolen bases. However, as the 2020 season is likely going to be reduced, a platoon situation isn’t exactly the most encouraging. Obviously, the number of games is going to affect his overall output, but buy into the batted ball metrics from earlier in the piece.
He has a knack for putting the barrel to the baseball, and he makes loud contact with a quality launch angle. Lowe represents a nice value as the 19th second baseman off the board. The platoon situation isn’t ideal, but at least he has the lion’s share of the playing time in his favor. Lowe gives your team a quality batting average with some pop, and a few steals to boot. He will lose some at-bats, given his deficiencies against southpaws, but still, I like the value on Lowe.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
brooksbaseball.net