When one of the top closers misses time in September with a “tired elbow”, it raises some concern for the upcoming season. Despite logging only 57.1 innings in 2019, Brad Hand notched 34 saves for Cleveland with a 3.30 ERA, 3.41 xFIP and 1.24 WHIP. He also won six of his ten decisions with 84 strikeouts against 18 walks en route to his second straight 30-plus save season.

However, his elbow issue and struggles in the second half cloud his outlook for 2020. After the All-Star break, Hand recorded a 5.40 ERA, 4.00 xFIP and a bloated 1.70 WHIP over 20 innings. Hand yielded a run in four straight outings in August totaling seven earned runs in 3.2 innings on 11 hits with three blown saves in them. This preceded his time missed in September. It’s one thing for an MRI to be clean according to reports out of Cleveland, but Hand made one appearance after September 8th. Here are his vertical release points from the last three years by month, take note of the decline in the second half of last year:

His inability to raise his hand prior to release of the pitch signals he pitched through pain. How much remains to be seen, but it should not be ignored when assessing how to value him going forward. It’s encouraging Hand maintained his swinging strike percentage (13.2-percent) but he allowed more contact (71.7-percent) and more contact in the strike zone (Z-Contact 82.6-percent).

According to Statcast, Hand allowed 136 batted ball events giving up nine barrels (6.6-percent), an average exit velocity of 87.7 MPH (up almost three MPH) and a 20.2-degree launch angle. Hitters elevated his pitches with much more proficiency in 2019 and increased their hard hit rate to 37.5-percent, up by almost nine percentage points. Knowing hard hit data spiked in 2019, this could be a blip, but Hand’s ground ball rate cratered to 27.9-percent last year compared to 46.2-percent the season prior. Perhaps his release point contributed to this.

As for his arsenal, Hand relies on his slider and four-seam fastball. Here’s his pitch plot from last season:

Like many relievers, Hand elevates his fastball while burying his slider for strikeouts. His swing-and-miss chart reflects this:

Delving into his pitch data reveals Hand lost some traction with his fastball last year. He allowed a .270 batting average with a .264 expected average against his four-seam fastball. For comparison, batters recorded a .202 average with a .205 expected avergae in 2018. Hand’s expected slugging versus the pitch also rose by 40 points last year. Producing a higher swing percentage overall, Hand generated a lower whiff rate. Perhaps the lower release point allowed hitters to see the ball out of his hand better or the slight MPH lost on his velocity tilted the advantage to them. Check out Hand’s zone profile from last season:

Hand’s first pitch strike percentage spiked to 66.5-percent and hitters responded swinging at the first pitch by a six-percent higher rate. Working with a slightly reduced velocity on both pitches, Hand tried to get ahead early in counts which signals the red areas in the swing percentage by zone above. Hand needs his slider to induce strikeouts, so a return of his vertical release point and a tick (MPH) on each pitch in the spring could signal a return to his dominant ways.

Over the last three years, Hand’s notched 87 saves in 210.1 innings with 296 strikeouts against 66 walks, a 2.74 ERA, 3.06 xFIP and 1.08 WHIP. If last year’s second half proves to be a blip, Hand could be a nice target with closers costs being depressed in early drafts. His projections defer to his past success but with an eye on his second half illustrated in the ratios:

  • Brad Hand 2020 Steamer Projection - 4 - 3, 33 Saves, 65 IP, 80:23 K:BB, 3.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
  • Brad Hand 2020 ATC Projection - 4 - 3, 32 Saves, 64 IP, 86:22 K:BB, 3.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

If Hand’s numbers migrate towards his last three years rather than the projections above, he’s a terrific target in 2020. Monitoring his spring velocity and release point could provide clarity for those with trepidation. Paying full retail for a closer always come with a certain level of risk, Brad Hand could save 30 games, be traded by mid-season or miss time with more elbow issues. Feeling lucky?

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen