2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Andrew Benintendi

I remember about a year ago writing up Andrew Benintendi ’s player profile. Looking back on it now, I was quite wrong. My parting shots in that article were as follows:

“At the top of a potent Boston lineup, Benintendi provides multi-category stability and elite upside for fantasy owners.

                -Colby Conway, Fantasy Alarm

Well, the optimistic side of things is that Benintendi did in fact contribute across the board, however, the end results were far below what many expected. I tabbed him as a potential 25/25 guy, instead, he was a member of the 10/10 club, which saw numerous players in 2019. It was a trying year for the young outfielder, but at just 25 years young, he’s due to tap into his potential and have a nice bounce back 2020 campaign.

So, what exactly happened in 2019? Surely there were numerous factors that played into his statistical decline. I want to point out two big things that stand out regarding Benintendi’s 2019 season.

Increased Strikeout Rate

Prior to 2019, Benintendi resided in the 16-17 percent strikeout rate. However, in 2019, that number increased to just below 23 percent, which is a rather sizable jump. He went out of the zone more than ever before, and when you take a look at his O-Swing% at Fangraphs, it was about five percentage points higher than where his previous career high (2017) was. Take a look at the chart below, courtesy of Baseball Savant, illustrating the fact that Benintendi left the strike zone more than ever before, against ALL pitches!

Decreased Contact Rate

This kind of works hand-in-hand with what I mention above, but Benintendi simply didn’t put the bat on the ball as much as we had become accustomed to seeing. Last year’s mark of 77.2 percent was a career low, and actually, it was a career-low by a significant margin.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

The contact numbers are interesting enough, but take a look at the third column, the swing and miss rate. Again, quite a jump for the young outfielder. Furthermore, it wasn’t just a result of chasing out of the zone, even though that certainly played into things, but even in the zone, Benintendi just missed the ball more frequently.

Additionally, he ran less last season, but with improved numbers, notably in terms of on-base percentage, he could be a bit more aggressive, and push that stolen base total up closer to 20 this season.

It’s encouraging that Benintendi’s peripherals over the final two months of the season were quite strong. He had two months where his hard contact rate was above 44 percent, which were in August and September/October. He posted line drive rates north of 23 percent past August, whereas he failed to do that through the first four or five months of the season. Also, when you look at rolling charts as the seasons progressed, it’s encouraging to see those increases at the end of the 2019 season, notably in xwOBA and xBA.

Benintendi is currently the 27^th outfielder off the board, coming in at pick 106, meaning in a 12-team setup, you can currently get the 25-year-old outfielder near the end of the ninth round. Steamer likes Benintendi to bounce back in 2020, slashing .273/.353/.431 with 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases. I think that’s the low end of his season outlook, as he has all of the talent and tools to hit .280 with 20+ home runs and 15 or so stolen bases this season.

If you ask me, he’s one of the best bounce back candidates for the 2020 season, and Benintendi is a high-quality upside play at his current draft position. If he can cut into that strikeout rate from last year, and it gets down closer to where he was in previous seasons, Benintendi will provide a nice return on investment for his owners.

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Statistical Credits:

fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com